Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market shocks down this week. The average price of granular sulfur at the beginning of the week is about 1433.33 yuan per ton, and the average price of granular sulfur at the weekend is about 1373.33 yuan per ton. The price of granular sulfur at the end of the week falls by 4.19%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market turnover this week is general, approaching the Spring Festival holidays, some downstream work has been suspended for holidays, businessmen are cautious about pre-Festival mentality. On Wednesday, domestic sulphur market quotations fell centrally. For domestic refineries, Sinopec’s refineries fell sharply. The mainstream quotations for solid sulphur ranged from 1150 to 1460 yuan/ton, and for liquid sulphur ranged from 1170 to 1400 yuan/ton. Among them, Zhenhai, Jinling and Gaoqiao Petrochemical Company in Shanghai all dropped by 100 yuan per ton, while Yanshan and Luoyang Petrochemical Company slightly decreased by 10 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: In the downstream industry this week, the main distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong increased slightly: Heze Jiangyuan quoted 400 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 550 yuan/ton, with a temporary stabilization; Zouping Tianlu quoted 290 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulphur analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the mainstream port stock is not high in the near future. They support the market slightly. Traders have an obvious price-fixing mentality. They are not willing to make profits and deliver goods. Lower-stream buyers are mainly on the lookout. They expect the sulfur market to stabilize in the near future.

The Indian acetone market closed stable on January 23, with CIF prices ranging from $458.5 to $461.5 per ton.

On January 21, the PX commodity index was 68.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.81% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 51.04% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia rose to about 80%. On January 21, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 22 US dollars/ton. The closing price was US$1072-1074/ton FOB in Korea and US$1092-1094/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units needed to be imported. The rising price of foreign units had a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price maintained 8,600 yuan/ton.

On January 21, the US WTI crude oil futures market closed at $53.80 per barrel in March, while Brent crude oil futures market closed at $62.70 per barrel in March. The closing price of Brent crude oil did not change much, which supported the price of downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA prices have maintained stability in the near future, the average price in East China is around 6400-6600 yuan/ton, as of 18 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 71%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, plus the general market of hobby production and marketing, PTA market price shocks, it is expected that the later PX market price will maintain 8600 yuan/ton.

On January 21, the price of the external quotation of o-xylene in Europe fell, with the external quotation of $820.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, down by $30/ton from the external quotation of $850.00/ton on January 18.

On January 18, the closing price of p-xylene in the U.S. market fell by $1/ton, and the closing price was $1036-1046/ton FOB in the U.S. Harbour.

NEW YORK, Jan. 17 News, COMEX copper futures closed up slightly on Thursday, with small fluctuations in the plate.

COMEX copper closed up 0.65 cents or 0.2% at $2.6800 a pound in March, the most active trading company.

Due to the continuation of the Sino-US trade war and the potential volatility of Britain’s withdrawal from Europe, the Chilean Copper Industry Council (Cochilco) maintained its average copper price forecast of $3.05 per pound this year and rose to $3.08 per pound in 2020.

Cochilco estimates a global supply shortage of 227,000 tons in 2019 and a supply shortfall of 185,000 tons by 2020.

The Rotterdam phenol market closed stable on January 16, with CIF prices ranging from $1059.5 to $1064.5 per ton.

The phenol Market in China is shaking and the offer in East China is low. At present, Petrochemical is listed at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 8,300 yuan/ton in East China, 8,500 yuan/ton in Shandong and 8,500 yuan/ton in Yanshan. Last week, although the port had a shipment due, the customs formalities involved have not yet been supplied to the market. At present, the supply side of phenol Market is relatively stable, but the terminal demand is low and the intention of offering is low. Business associations expect the phenol Market in East China to offer a range of 8300-8350 yuan/ton.

By the end of January 11, Butadiene FOB Rotterdam Spot was 878-882 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton; Butadiene FD Northwest Europe Spot was 843-847 Euro/ton, up 30 Euro/ton.

On Jan. 10, 2018, when the media turned around, Thai Agriculture Minister grisada boonrach said that Thailand had reduced rubber production by 4.5 million tons to 3 million tons and planted area by 4.2 million hectares to 2.4 million hectares. It is planned to be implemented in the next five years. The news has not been reproduced by many media, and can not identify the credibility.

If production is cut by 300,000 tons in 2019, rubber will rebound substantially, expected to be around 20%.

But some of Thailand’s rubber policies are limited to discussions or claims, and many undecided and unrealized situations have occurred. So for the time being, the market has not risen sharply.

Rubber rebounds back to the shock zone.

The glue price responds to the fact that the spot determined by China’s high inventory is difficult to rise. Demand is stable and slightly pessimistic, supply is not significantly reduced short-term expectations, superimposed rubber prices are expected to rise at a lower position in 10 years, in a weak equilibrium state.

Thai research information feedback reduces production. The Thai government may introduce the Lido rubber measures.

Rubber prices fell to the lowest level in 2018. Pressure in rubber-producing countries has increased and supply-side actions have taken place in various countries. There was no clear plan of action at the Rubber Tripartite Meeting.

Thai spot prices rebounded at the bottom, ahead of Chinese spot prices.

The price industry of 11,000 is not enthusiastic enough to further reduce production or occur. Considering that both industry information and ANRPC report point to the direction of production reduction. Receiving pressure disappeared. It’s better to stop cutting at home and start a high rate of production and export. It can support rubber rebound. But the rubber rebound was weak, and a favorable short price returned to the starting point.

How about the industry?

As of January 4, 2019, natural rubber stocks in the previous period were 432305 (4634) tons and 385660 (6840) tons.

As of January 4, 2019, the start-up rate of all-steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 69.91%, down 1.76 percentage points annually, up 8.66 percentage points year on year. Semi-steel tire start-up rate of domestic tire enterprises is 66.19%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous year and 0.21 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. January is in the slack season of domestic demand, and production is expected to be ready for the Spring Festival.

On December 1, Fang Xinghai said that it would actively promote the listing of rubber futures No. 20.

We estimate that the price of glue may fall between 300 and 1000 yuan due to the announcement of No. 20 glue on the market. Uncertainty is high. Attention should be paid to this risk.

Goods in stock

Last trading day, from 16:00 p.m. to 18:00 p.m. in spot market, compound glue quoted 10600 yuan (-50). RU1901 is a little high.

After the rebound, the spot price of futures has risen from 1200 to 1400 yuan, which has attracted the attention of arbitrage selling.

Suggestions on the operation of natural rubber mesh:

Operational point of view, wait-and-see or intra-day short-term trading.

Rubber may rebound in the next month, but the shortfall of No. 20 rubber is difficult to avoid. The risk of a sharp drop in the announcement of a listing is relatively high. If this risk occurs, the conservative investor will stop earnings in advance. Active investors can set up mobile stops beforehand.