Price Trend

In February 2019, the tin ingot Market rose. The average price in domestic market was 146812.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 149350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.73%.

On February 28, the lead commodity index was 105.21, up 1.14 points from yesterday, down 21.49% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29) and 40.98% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: before the Spring Festival, the market is relatively cold. Most manufacturers completed stock purchase at the end of January and entered the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule. After the opening of the Spring Festival Holiday, there are fragmented just-in-demand transactions in the market. The futures market boosted the domestic spot tin market by resuming trading on November 11. However, the market transaction is limited, some enterprises are still digesting pre-holiday inventory, prices can not obtain transaction support, spot market prices fluctuate randomly. By the end of the month, the mainstream domestic market turnover was 148500-150000 yuan/ton, but the downstream market entry was still on the lookout, with general turnover. Rising and discounting water is basically stable in Yunxi’s discount of 500 yuan/ton to 1905 contract, 1500 yuan/ton to ordinary Yunzi discount water and 2000 yuan/ton to small brand discount water. The discount once expanded to 800-2200 yuan/ton due to the sharp rise in tin price on Monday alone.

International Markets: This week, the US dollar fell from its high last week, US crude oil showed 4 lianyang, reaching a recent high of US$57.88 per barrel. The latest progress of Sino-US negotiations announced a temporary postponement of the original tariff levy on China on March 1. The market was boosted by positive sentiment. Domestic A-share market was booming, nearly 3000 points, and the metal market was red.

Import and export: China imported 30,179 tons of tin ore and concentrate in January, of which 29,389 tons came from Myanmar. In January, tin shipments from Myanmar mines were estimated at 7,100 tons, up 48% annually and down 36% year-on-year. In addition to Myanmar, China imported 1,329 tons of tin ore (gross weight) from other countries in January.

Major domestic events: On February 23, a major safety accident occurred in Yinman Mine, and the mine is now in a state of shutdown. The Inner Mongolia Security Committee has asked the area to carry out a one-month safety inspection, which may have some impact on the production of other tin mines in the area. Market participants predict that Yinman mining accident may lead to a three-month to one-year shutdown of its mine. In 2018, the tin concentrate production in Yinman Mine is estimated to be about 7,000 tons, accounting for about 8% of the domestic tin concentrate production. Yinman Mine is also the third largest tin mine in China. It is the only new tin mine project in China in recent decades. The shutdown of Yinman Mine is bound to have a greater impact on the domestic tin supply. In addition, Myanmar’s tin supply this year will continue to decrease by about 15,000 tons on the basis of last year’s 15,000 tons. The domestic tin supply may intensify the tension. In addition, according to past experience, small tin mines in Jiangxi will also stop production during the two sessions in early March, so supply tension in March may be more prominent.

International events: Jakarta, Feb. 8, according to data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, Indonesia exported 4,115.45 tons of refined tin in January, down nearly 22% annually and 9% year-on-year. The total export volume of refined tin in 2018 was 75,677.49 tons, down 3% from 78,189.97 tons in 2017.

On February 21, Governor Gumar of North Kazakhstan announced that the largest undeveloped tin deposit in the world would be developed in North Kazakhstan, with an investment of 4 billion tenge, or about 10.6 million US dollars. “For many years, the only tin deposit in Kazakhstan and the largest tin deposit in Central Asia has been developed in the Ayyrtau area. The divestiture project will start in May, and this year’s investment will reach 4 billion tenge, “the governor said. According to him, the overall commissioning will be completed in 2021 with a total investment of 100 billion tenge (about 1.9 billion yuan). Syrymbet deposit is the only tin deposit in Kazakhstan and the largest tin deposit in Central Asia. The deposit was developed by Tin One Mining Ltd. (before 2017, Tin One Mining Ltd. Limited Liability Company), whose shareholders are\1082;\\1091;1090;1082;1082;-(25%).

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data next week, with the US dollar showing downward signs. As China enters March, downstream construction will gradually resume. With the convening of the “two sessions”, market sentiment will remain more positive, and spot tin market will have a slight upward margin.