1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. On July 11, the price of pure benzene was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (average price was 8630 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (July 18), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8600 yuan / ton (average price was 8530 yuan / ton). The average price fell by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.16%, compared with last week; It was 171.66% higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Internationally, the overall international crude oil fell this week, while the pure benzene in Asia rose slightly. Domestic, this week, East China port inventory remained low, pure benzene spot market is still tight supply. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 8600 yuan / ton, which was lower than the market expectation. According to the dynamic situation of the plant, there will be new pure benzene output in the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Weilian chemical and North Huajin units will be shut down for maintenance. In terms of demand, downstream products are in deficit, some units are reducing load, and the demand for pure benzene may decline.
In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (July 16) was US $1043 / T, up US $18 / T or 1.76% from July 9; The import reference price of East China was US $1065 / T, up US $1 / T or 0.09% from July 9.
In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.
Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene dropped continuously this week. On July 16, the price of sample enterprises was 9312.5 yuan / ton, down 1.97% compared with last week and up 73.52% compared with the same period last year. Due to profit and fault problems, some factories have the performance of decrease and short-term parking. However, with the expected restart of the maintenance unit, the supply side is expected to increase significantly in the short term, which can not provide favorable support for the price of styrene.
Aniline: aniline softened again this week. Jinling aniline began to ship, and the spot supply increased; In addition, Wanhua chemical’s 400000 T / a new aniline plant has been put into operation, which has a huge impact on the future supply of aniline Market and a strong market bearish attitude. The price in Shandong is 9400-9600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9700 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, OPEC + may further increase production and crude oil may fall from a high level. In addition, the epidemic situation is still affecting the recovery process of economy and crude oil demand. In the future, attention will be paid to OPEC + decision on further production increase, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, US dollar exchange rate, etc.
Downstream: downstream main product styrene: pure benzene price may be loose, affecting the cost support point of styrene. On the supply side, with the restart of Jihua, the parking of Huajin in North China and the recovery of some large plants in East China after a short production reduction, the overall start-up and supply of styrene will increase next week, while the demand side’s three major downstream industries are still dominated by the current situation, with little possibility of demand increment. Moreover, most of the plants are contract oriented, and the spot purchasing atmosphere is still not optimistic. Styrene or shock may fall back.
Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II is expected to have new pure benzene output, supply increase, the market is bearish on the future. Although the shutdown of some units will offset part of the output, the downward pressure of pure benzene is greater. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.