Author Archives: lubon

The domestic ethanol market remained low in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market remained relatively low in October. From October 8th to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5752 yuan/ton to 5575 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.09% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 19.00%.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices fluctuated and fell, with logistics restrictions and rising shipping costs. Along with poor downstream demand, companies were slow to ship and inventory pressure increased. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. After the holiday, production companies have gradually lowered their offers, and the focus of the ethanol market has once again fallen. In mid month, the price of raw corn continued to decline, and the cost support for fermented corn ethanol loosened. Affected by poor downstream demand, companies are shipping slowly, and the ethanol market continues to see a decline in quotes. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable with small fluctuations, and the supply of raw material corn was loose, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Downstream restocking in some regions has been slightly active, with factory shipments improving and industry sentiment rebounding.

 

In terms of cost, corn prices have slightly weakened, and new grain in major production areas continues to increase. Some farmers in areas where new grain has not yet been listed still have reluctance to sell. The purchase prices of deep processing enterprises have fluctuated, and some enterprises continue to purchase at lower prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

 

On the supply side, the supply of ethanol in various regions of China remains stable, with some factories experiencing short-term shutdowns and plans to restart. Coal quality factories are expected to operate normally, but overall supply fluctuations are limited. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

 

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; The production capacity of ethyl acetate continues to increase. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

 

In the future forecast, the price of raw material corn is weak and stable, with insufficient support. With the increase in the operating rate of ethyl acetate, the demand for ethanol may increase. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may break through in the short term.

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On October 30th, the styrene market was relatively strong

Product Name: Styrene

 

Latest price: 8820 yuan/ton on October 30th.

 

Analysis: According to data from Shengyi Society, the spot market for styrene today is weak, and the sales price of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company has been lowered. The overall trading atmosphere is relatively light, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with downstream factories purchasing according to demand. At present, international crude oil prices have fallen, and the price of raw material pure benzene has also dropped, affecting market confidence. However, styrene has been slightly depleted in East China ports. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

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The import volume of acrylonitrile decreased by 100% in September

In September, the import volume of acrylonitrile in China significantly decreased, with imports of 0.32 tons. The import volume decreased by 100% month on month and 206% year-on-year. The import volume of acrylonitrile from January to September was 54800 tons, a decrease of 100600 tons or 64.98% compared to the same period last year. The main reason is that domestic demand is relatively weak, coupled with the fact that imported acrylonitrile has no price advantage in the domestic market. The main import destinations are concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

In September, China exported 25896 tons of acrylonitrile, with an average price of 1110 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 6.15% month on month and 89.05% year-on-year. The export volume from January to September was 175000 tons, an increase of 43300 tons or 32.87% compared to the same period last year. Due to sufficient domestic supply and a certain price advantage, the export volume has significantly increased in the past two months.

 

In September, China’s acrylonitrile exporting countries were still mainly concentrated in the Asian region. South Korea remains the primary region for acrylonitrile exports, exporting 11000 tons of acrylonitrile, accounting for 43%. India and Thailand ranked second and third in terms of export volume, with export volumes of 8000 tons and 4000 tons, accounting for 31% and 17% respectively. However, it is worth noting that in the past two years, India, the main export destination, has extended the deadline for mandatory BIS certification of acrylonitrile, styrene (ethylbenzene), and maleic anhydride to October 24th. Therefore, the future export of acrylonitrile to India will be significantly reduced.

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The BDO market fluctuates narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China rose from 7342 yuan/ton to 7457 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 28.69%. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry continues to decline, and transportation in Xinjiang is slow, resulting in a shortage of market supply. The main supplier of the goods is the contract order, and the spot quantity is limited. The mainstream quotation is on the rise.

 

Melamine

On the supply side, with the shutdown of a set of equipment in Inner Mongolia and the extension of 15 days for oil replacement, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has once again declined, and the market supply of goods is favorable.

 

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: Recently, with the increase in supply and downstream maintenance, there has been a significant increase in market supply, leading to a decline in the domestic calcium carbide market. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. As of 10:00 am on October 18th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2445 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is rising, while methanol prices are narrowly declining, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

 

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PU slurry, and TPU have seen an increase in load, while other downstream industries such as PBT and PBAT have seen a decrease in load, and most industries are in a loss making state with limited ability to accept high prices. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.

 

In the future forecast, the industry’s capacity utilization rate will still be at a low level, the market supply of goods will continue to be tight, and the profit intention of suppliers will actively support the market. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is expected to rise.

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Bromine prices were weak in September

1、 Price trend

 

povidone Iodine

According to the monitoring of the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine decreased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 20660 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 19860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.93%. On September 29th, the bromine commodity index was 69.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 71.58% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 18.26% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The overall price of bromine has declined this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong is currently around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. With the decrease in weather and rainfall, the maintenance enterprises affected by rainfall in the early stage began to resume production, resulting in an increase in bromine production and the supplementation of imported bromine. The overall supply of bromine is relatively sufficient. The demand for main downstream flame retardants is weak. Weak shipments, dominated by bearish factors. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply and weak demand, bromine prices continue to decline.

 

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur remained weak in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1435 yuan/ton, and at the end of use, the average market price was 1397.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 37.48%. The transaction atmosphere in the sulfur market is average, and downstream manufacturers mainly purchase according to their needs.

 

Business analysts believe that bromine prices have been weak recently. Recently, the overall supply of bromine has been stable and the source of goods is sufficient. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply leads to weak demand, and the comprehensive prediction of short-term bromine prices or market consolidation based on the supply-demand game depends on downstream market demand.

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Insufficient purchasing power leads to weak TDI market decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 20th, the domestic TDI market was running weakly, with domestic TDI products priced around 13000-13100 yuan/ton and Shanghai products priced around 13100-13200 yuan/ton. The supplier lacked confidence in raising prices, and downstream purchases were made according to demand. Under the dominance of buying houses, the focus of TDI transactions shifted downwards. At present, there is a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market, and in the absence of favorable demand in the short term, it is expected that the TDI market will have a weak trend.

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Insufficient demand support, n-butanol fell by over 6% in early September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6666 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.32%.

 

povidone Iodine

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the center of gravity of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to move towards a low level. After the market price in Shandong fell below the 7000 yuan/ton mark, the trading atmosphere in the market remained weak, and the n-butanol market continued to decline. As of September 13th, the n-butanol market in Shandong was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton.

 

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

 

On the supply side: Since September, there have been both resumption of work and temporary parking in the n-butanol plant. The overall supply in the plant is still relatively loose, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market is limited.

 

In terms of demand: In early September, the overall performance of the “Golden Nine” effect in the n-butanol market was average. Downstream demand was cautious in stocking up before the holiday, and due to the continuous decline in the market, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the market was strong. The conversion of demand was slow, and the overall support for n-butanol was weak.

 

Market price situation of n-butanol

 

Region/ Product/ September 13th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 6600-6700 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6600-6700 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7000-7100 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6900-7000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

 

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is average, and the negotiation atmosphere in the market is slightly weak. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly weak and stable, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

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Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market rebounds

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early September, terminal demand improved and the hydrogen peroxide market rebounded. On September 2nd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 803 yuan/ton, and on September 9th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.73%.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market rebounds

 

Since September 2nd, there has been an increase in terminal rigid demand, leading to an increase in manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide. The bullish trend has also increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has seen a rise, with an overall quotation of 800-900 yuan/ton. On September 9th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 750-800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 900 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

 

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that in mid to late September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will increase, and the future hydrogen peroxide market is expected to see an upward trend.

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The aniline market fluctuated and rose in August

1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated and rose in August. On August 1st, the market price of aniline was 9825 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the price was 10125 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.05% during the month and a decrease of 9.34% compared to the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

In August, the aniline market first rose and then fluctuated and fell back, with gains giving up and an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the low price of aniline and the inverted profits of upstream enterprises, mainstream factories began to push up prices, boosting market purchasing power. Aniline prices rose three times in a row, exceeding the 10000 yuan mark. Subsequently, the market entered the stage of digesting the increase, with upstream inventory falling to a low level and downstream demand dominating. Under the premise of reasonable control of inventory and stable supply, aniline prices were flexibly adjusted, resulting in a weak market trend at the end of the month.

 

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated and rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the price fell due to the negative macro sentiment. Subsequently, some downstream units restarted, and the demand side was favorable, causing pure benzene prices to fluctuate and rise. On August 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8438 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 8568 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% during the period.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

The current purchasing power of the aniline market is weak, downstream profitability is average, and the ability to accept high priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the aniline market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

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Flat demand, adhesive short fiber market remains stable in August

In August 2024, the downstream demand for adhesive short fibers continued to be weak, with mediocre performance and average on-site sales. The adhesive short fiber market maintained stable operation and prices remained stable. The market for dissolved pulp, the main raw material, is operating steadily, with decent cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories have average purchasing power, mainly consuming raw material inventory. Overall, the on-site sales are stable, and the demand in the end market is still light. The price of viscose staple fiber market is temporarily stable, but the traditional textile boom season is coming soon, and industry players have strong price support emotions. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of new orders from downstream yarn factories.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

 

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolution pulp remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolution pulp for domestic enterprises is referenced at 7700-7800 yuan/ton, while the price of broad-leaved pulp for external markets is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have fluctuated, with prices in the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market and sulfuric acid market remaining firm and stable. The liquid alkali market has experienced a narrow decline, while the adhesive short fiber market still has support.

 

Supply and inventory: The pre maintenance equipment in the adhesive short fiber market has resumed normal operation. In August, most manufacturers’ equipment was operating stably, and the on-site operating rate is at a high level. Currently, the industry’s daily operating rate is around 83.72%. However, with the gradual delivery of previous orders from manufacturers and an increase in on-site supply, the inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have increased compared to July, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable.

 

On the demand side: The textile terminal market in August is still in a low season of demand, with downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mostly executing early orders and consuming raw material inventory. The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, and there is a small amount of replenishment during low prices, resulting in mediocre performance on the demand side. Price stalemate consolidation.

 

Downstream cotton yarn market

 

Downstream cotton yarn is consolidating weakly, with market execution orders being the main focus. Some manufacturers have adjusted prices narrowly, but overall prices remain stable. Overall shipments are average, inventory is basically maintained, and demand performance is weak. As of August 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) is 17375 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Future forecast

 

The raw material side dissolution slurry market remains strong and stable, with continued positive support from the cost side. The market supply has increased, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. With the arrival of the traditional textile peak season in September, downstream demand will improve, but it is difficult to have a significant improvement. Both positive and negative factors coexist in the market. Overall, it is expected that the adhesive short fiber market will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited price fluctuations or the possibility of a slight increase. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

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