In the first half of May, the dichloromethane market in Shandong showed a strong trend of unilateral upward movement and high-level stagnation, with significant gains. As of May 15th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2340 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.99% from the beginning of the month.
Core driver disassembly

Cost side: Price increase leads to cost deviation, and support gradually weakens
This round of market trend presents a typical deviation feature of “price increase, cost decrease”:
Raw material methanol: In the first half of May, the price dropped by over 5%, forming a strong contrast with the 14.99% increase in dichloromethane, indicating that cost is not the core driving force behind this round of price increases.
Liquid chlorine market: With the recovery of operating rates in chlor alkali enterprises, the center of gravity of liquid chlorine prices has slightly shifted downwards, further loosening the cost support for integrated chlor alkali enterprises.
Enterprise profit: Weakening costs and significant price increases have significantly expanded the profit margin of dichloromethane production enterprises, and their willingness to raise prices has increased in stages. However, the support of the cost side for subsequent market trends has significantly weakened.
Supply side: Maintenance+low inventory, short-term tight supply of circulating goods
The phased contraction of the supply side is the core support of this round of market trend:
Equipment maintenance: Some dichloromethane units in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have entered routine maintenance, causing a temporary decline in industry operating rates and a reduction in market supply.
Low inventory: Social inventory continues to be at a low level in recent years, and there is not much pressure on enterprise inventory. There is a strong sentiment of reluctance to sell and price hikes, coupled with the demand for replenishment from traders, further amplifying price increases.
Mid term outlook: With the resumption of maintenance equipment, it is expected that the industry’s operating rate will gradually rise from late May, and supply side pressure will gradually be released.
Demand side: concentrated release of post holiday demand, high prices suppress transaction sustainability
The demand side presents the characteristics of “short-term concentration and long-term weakness”:
Urgent support: Downstream industries such as refrigerants (R32), coatings, and pharmaceutical intermediates have resumed work after the holiday, and procurement demand has been released in stages, providing basic support for price increases.
High price resistance: With the price rapidly breaking through the 2300 yuan/ton mark, downstream enterprises’ resistance to high prices has significantly increased. Transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and there is a lack of sustained large-scale procurement, gradually weakening the driving effect on prices.
Segmented fields: The refrigerant industry mainly focuses on supporting procurement, with limited new orders; The demand for traditional coatings and pharmaceuticals is flat, with a slight year-on-year decline and limited support for prices.
Market forecast: High volatility weak, mid-term pressure to fall back
In the first half of May, the dichloromethane market saw a unilateral upward trend of over 14% driven by a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. Although the technical outlook remained bullish, there were signals of weakened upward momentum and short-term super gains. Subsequently, with the release of supply side pressure and the manifestation of the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand, the market is likely to enter a stage of high-level oscillation and weak trend. There is downward pressure on prices in the medium term, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of equipment resumption, fluctuations in raw material prices, and changes in downstream demand.

In April, the Shandong asphalt market completed a trend of “first suppression and then rise”, and the supply and demand pattern turned at the end of the month. Combined with the current fundamentals and core variables, the future Shandong asphalt market will mainly experience strong fluctuations, with the core dominated by supply, cost, and demand, while also paying attention to uncertain factors

The tight supply side pattern will continue, which is the core of price support and difficult to alleviate in the short term. As of the end of April, the operating rate of Shandong refineries was only 21.5%, and the overall operating rate in China dropped to a low of 16.1%, indicating a tight supply of goods. The production schedule of Shandong’s local refining plan in May decreased year-on-year and month on month, indicating a clear contraction in supply. In addition, the refinery’s asphalt processing continues to suffer losses, and companies tend to switch to high profit products, making it difficult to increase short-term operating rates. The tight supply pattern dominates the future market.
The existence of cost support but increased volatility is the biggest uncertainty variable. The current high volatility of international oil prices provides cost support for asphalt. However, there is a clear game of long and short oil prices, with geopolitical tensions and low inventory supporting oil prices, while the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and increased US crude oil exports suppress the upward trend, and there is a high probability of short-term fluctuations and differentiation. In the future, attention should be paid to the situation between the United States and Iran. If easing occurs, the pullback of crude oil will weaken support, while upgrading will drive asphalt upward.
The demand side is gradually recovering, but the strength is limited and only serves as auxiliary support. The rise in temperature has driven the start of road construction in Shandong, with slow release of terminal demand. However, downstream construction rates are still low, and high prices have suppressed purchasing intentions. Rainfall in East and South China has dragged down construction, and the demand in the waterproofing industry has remained stable but not increased. The overall recovery is slow, making it difficult to drive prices up significantly.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, Shandong asphalt is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the future, with the upward trend being limited by demand and crude oil, and the downward trend being supported by supply. Focus on the US Iran situation, crude oil trends, and refinery operations in the short term, and track downstream demand in the medium to long term. The price of Jingbo # 70 in Shandong region is expected to fluctuate within the current range of 4300-4400 yuan/ton, with a focus on the volatility of crude oil. If the supply is tight and demand accelerates, there will be a slight upward trend. If crude oil rebounds or demand falls short of expectations, there will be a periodic pullback. Geography and crude oil are key factors in the market.

In the second half of April, the propylene glycol market showed high volatility and a gradual decline in focus, mainly due to loose costs and weak demand, with tight spot prices limiting the decline. As of April 29th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong region was 10633 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 7% in half a month.
fundamental analysis

Cost side: High level decline in propylene oxide (PO), weakened support
Geopolitical easing, PO supply recovery, price decline, business social epoxy propane prices fell by more than 11.5% during the cycle, and propylene glycol cost support loosened.
Supply side: Production has rebounded, spot prices are tight but the increase is limited
Domestic construction: The industry’s construction rate has rebounded from less than 60% to 65-70%, and the early maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted. Inventory: Factory inventory is low, traders’ inventory is not high, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices still exists.
Demand side: Stable demand, high prices suppress procurement
Unsaturated resin: The demand for essential materials remains stable, but downstream customers are cautious in receiving goods at high prices. There are many small orders for essential materials, and overall demand growth is limited. Lithium battery electrolyte: Demand is supported and long-term orders are stable, but high prices suppress the enthusiasm for spot purchases. Polyether polyols: The market is weak, the supply is sufficient, manufacturers are promoting orders at low prices, and there is insufficient willingness to follow up.
Market forecast:
Overall, it is highly likely that propylene glycol will maintain a high and narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. However, with the continuous weakening of cost support and multiple pressures such as high prices suppressing procurement, the price will gradually face downward pressure, and the center of gravity in the medium and long term may slowly shift downwards. It is necessary to pay attention to the raw material market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of polyaluminum chloride rose in March. China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market was mainly reported at around 1745 yuan/ton on the 31st and 1720 yuan/ton on the 1st, up 1.45%.

The cost of raw materials is the core factor affecting the price of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the prices of upstream aluminum sources, hydrochloric acid and other raw materials rose, providing strong support for the price of polyaluminum chloride. The production of polyaluminum chloride mainly relies on aluminum source materials such as calcium aluminate powder and aluminum hydroxide.
In March, environmental policies continued to be high-pressure, and environmental inspections in various regions did not decrease, further promoting the structural optimization of the polyaluminum chloride industry. The environmental protection department focuses on investigating the emission of waste gas and wastewater from enterprises, and orders enterprises that do not meet environmental standards to suspend production and rectify. Small enterprises are restricted from starting production due to insufficient investment in environmental protection, resulting in reduced supply; Large enterprises have completed the upgrade of environmental protection facilities, and the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product is controlled below 180 kilograms of standard coal, which meets the green access barriers. The operating rate remains high, and the market share has further increased.
Market forecast: In March, the domestic polyaluminum chloride market will exhibit operational characteristics of “price stability with upward trend, optimized supply and demand structure, and intensified quality differentiation”. The upward trend in upstream raw material prices, the normalization of high-pressure environmental policies, and the steady release of downstream demand have jointly driven a moderate increase in market prices, continuous upgrading of industry structure, and further highlighted the advantages of leading enterprises. Looking ahead to April, the overall market will continue to show a steady upward trend, and the trend of product structure transformation towards high-end will become more apparent.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in China was 3966 yuan/ton on March 6th, and 3890 yuan/ton on March 1st. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 1.97%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate has shown a strong upward trend. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in cost support. Downstream replenishment is based on demand, with market orders being the main focus. As of March 6th, the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3950-4000 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 4000-4050 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 3850-3950 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. Due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, sulfur prices have risen significantly this week. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and holders are mainly reluctant to sell. As of March 6th, the reference price for sulfur in Shandong region is around 4313 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been on the rise recently. At present, the high cost support, coupled with the season of spring plowing and fertilizer use, makes the ammonium market mainly bullish. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will continue to operate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the adipic acid market continued to rise in February, with prices fluctuating continuously. At the beginning of February, the average market price of adipic acid was 80663 yuan/ton. On February 28th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.89%.

Liduo continues to rise in the adipic acid market in February
At the beginning of February, the crude oil market surged, and the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone, raw materials for adipic acid, remained high. With the arrival of the Spring Festival, the terminal nylon stocking market was boosted, and manufacturers had a strong bullish mentality. The adipic acid market continued to rise, with increased market trading volume and steady warming, with a five-day increase of over 3%. As of February 5th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was around 8333 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton.
After the Spring Festival, the boosting effect of adipic acid raw material market was limited, and terminal demand fell. After the rise of adipic acid market, it gradually decreased. As of February 28th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 200 yuan/ton. The overall price of adipic acid rose by nearly 3% in February.
The analyst of the adipic acid market at Shengyi Society believes that the terminal demand will gradually improve in March, and the adipic acid market may stop falling and usher in an upward trend in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1835 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.95% compared to the reference average price of 1782 yuan/ton on February 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This month, the domestic urea market prices have been on a strong upward trend. The urea market supply is still sufficient this month. At the beginning of the month, the urea futures market weakened, coupled with average downstream demand, resulting in a slight decline in domestic urea market prices. As the futures market gradually rises, downstream stocking demand increases before the Spring Festival, and domestic urea prices begin to rise. During the Spring Festival, the price of urea printing labels was announced, and the price increased. After the holiday, the demand for industry and agriculture followed suit, and the urea market saw an increase in growth.
market situation
As of February 27th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1810-1860 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1800-1850 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1780-1830 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1780-1820 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from December 1, 2025 to February 16, 2026, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. In February, there was a significant increase in domestic urea prices, with the largest increase being 0.98% in the week of February 9th.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been consolidating and operating with a strong trend in recent days. At present, spring plowing and fertilization are approaching, and the demand for urea in the market is increasing, with sufficient orders waiting to be placed in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market prices will remain stable with a moderate upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated slightly this week. The price of pure benzene was 6186.67 yuan/ton on Monday and 6196.67 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price increase of 0.16% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene in Shandong region fluctuated slightly this week. Yesterday, international crude oil futures fell, and the pure benzene market had a bearish sentiment. The current weak operation of products in the chemical sector has weakened confidence in the pure benzene market; The overall buying momentum of Shandong Refining is weak, and transactions are cautious. Shandong Refining has maintained stable prices and orders today, while the East China market is weak and stable.
This week, Sinopec’s price has increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5500 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On February 5th, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.85 or 2.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.55 per barrel, a decrease of $1.91 or 2.8%.
Foreign pure benzene: On February 5th, foreign pure benzene: FOB Korea fell 4 to 776 US dollars/ton, CFR China fell 5 to 776 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam fell 6 to $888 per ton, while FOB USG remained stable at 289 cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: The short-term pure benzene market is volatile and trading is cautious. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

In January, the domestic bisphenol A market broke away from the weak trend at the end of the year and emerged from a recovery trend of “stabilizing first and then strengthening”. At the beginning of the month, the market was mainly characterized by fluctuations to maintain stability, with prices maintaining a range of consolidation; Since the second half of the year, the concentrated release and resonance of positive factors in cost, supply, and demand have directly driven the market to rebound rapidly, and prices have steadily risen. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation rose to nearly 8000 yuan/ton.

In early January, there was no obvious unilateral trend in the domestic bisphenol A market, and long and short factors balanced each other, resulting in overall stable fluctuations. On the supply side, although some enterprises have entered the maintenance cycle and their short-term supply has slightly contracted, the market has strong expectations for the new production capacity of bisphenol A in 2026, and the shipping mentality of industry players is cautious, with weak willingness to proactively offer discounts, supporting market stability; On the cost side, the international oil price has not yet formed a sustained upward trend, and the upstream prices of pure benzene and phenol ketone are flat, which has limited cost support for bisphenol A; On the demand side, downstream industries are still in the end of the off-season, and there is insufficient follow-up on the demand for epoxy resin. The PC industry has not yet started large-scale procurement, and market transactions are light. The price of high-quality bisphenol A products in East China is close to 7500 yuan/ton, and the market maintains a stable trend under the long short game.
After the middle of the month, the negative factors that had previously balanced the market gradually dissipated, and the multiple positive factors of cost, supply, and demand continued to exert force, forming resonance. The domestic bisphenol A market completely reversed its volatile trend and embarked on a rapid rebound path. The cost side has become the core driving force, and the escalation of the US Iran situation has driven international oil prices to continue rising. US oil and Brent crude oil have respectively exceeded $60 and $65 per barrel, directly driving up the prices of upstream pure benzene and benzophenones. Phenol and acetone, as the core raw materials of bisphenol A, account for more than 70% of the production cost. The rigid increase in raw materials has pushed up the theoretical cost of bisphenol A, forcing the holders to firmly support the price. Positive news from the supply side has emerged simultaneously, with early maintenance equipment gradually recovering. However, some enterprises have been affected by tight raw material supply, resulting in lower than expected operating rates and no significant increase in market supply. The supply-demand pattern continues to improve. The demand side is gradually recovering, and the operating rates of downstream PC and epoxy resin industries are steadily increasing. Procurement demand continues to be released, and market transaction activity has significantly increased, further driving up prices.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the trend of the bisphenol A market stabilizing first and then strengthening in January is clear. The core driving force comes from the coordinated efforts of multiple positive factors, with cost bottoming out, supply tightening, and demand recovery forming a resonance, promoting the market to break away from the year-end weakness and achieve a steady rebound. In the short term, the bisphenol A market may continue to show a strong trend, and if the cost side oil price continues to operate at a high level, it will continue to provide support for the market; With the further increase in downstream industry operating rates, procurement demand is expected to continue to be released on the demand side. However, attention should be paid to the progress of new production capacity implementation and the risk of raw material price fluctuations, and the subsequent market trend still needs to focus on tracking changes in upstream and downstream fundamentals.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 12th to 16th, the domestic ethanol price fell to 5411 yuan/ton, with a price decrease of 0.26% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.14%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.91%. The domestic ethanol market has experienced a narrow decline, with slight regional differences. The main factories may experience reduced production, inventory pressure or profit sharing logistics, and there is a possibility of price decline.
On the cost side, the upward trend of corn prices is supported by high corn ethanol costs. The increase in on-site ethanol supply and the continued positive demand may further boost the possibility of ethanol price increases. However, the overall upward space is limited, with high costs and difficulty in improving profits. Bioethanol still operates at a loss. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethanol production capacity remains at 61.67%. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu and chemical industry improved, the terminal demand was boosted, and the overall demand rose. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, there is a possibility of a decline in the operation of ethanol factories due to cost impact. However, based on the current inventory and negative market sentiment, as well as limited downstream demand, ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that there is still a possibility of a short-term decline in the ethanol market.