1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.48%. Weekend prices increased by 22.32% year-on-year. On September 18th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.52, a decrease of 0.84 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and a 51.13% increase from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 07, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7175.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7338.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.26%. The weekend prices fell by 1.30% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, rising from 10133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.88%. The weekend price has increased by 1.21% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late September, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market continues to rise, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9158.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9716.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.10%. The price has increased by 0.17% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past two months, and the market has continued to rise this week. The international oil price has risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China continues to be low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, market transactions are positive, and the styrene market is rising.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has increased this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 8800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have also increased by 950 yuan/ton). The East China market continues to rise, with sporadic spot transactions on the exchange, mainly through monthly transactions. Downstream customers are cautious in pursuing high priced raw materials, resulting in insufficient transactions. An unplanned shutdown of a polymerization factory in Shandong led to bearish market buying, coupled with a slight decline in high-end pure benzene production in East China within the day, resulting in insufficient market follow-up momentum and weaker transaction volume.

Downstream, the three major downstream markets for styrene have risen. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price of PS was 9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.39% and a decrease of 7.32% compared to the same period last year. The cost of PS is supported, and transactions are improving. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) market price will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong.

This week’s EPS market has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10059.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of ordinary materials this week was 10250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95%. The terminal profit is good, and the market transactions are positive. It is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly show a strong trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen, and the upstream three materials of ABS have strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plants have started construction at a high level, with smooth shipments and significant market inventory digestion. The demand side support has strengthened, and the trading volume has fully entered the traditional peak season level of “Golden Nine Silver Ten”. However, the increase in spot prices may affect the willingness of terminals to receive goods, and it is expected that the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

At present, the news shows that the crude oil market has softened from a high level, and the cost side is still acceptable. Baofeng and Zhejiang Petrochemical have new production capacity of 800000 tons of styrene units, and there is an expectation of an increase in styrene inventory. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will be mainly weak and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% compared to the initial price of 8675 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 15th, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% compared to the beginning of the week’s price of 8800 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the price trend of ortho benzene in China. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has increased.

On the demand side: The DOP market has seen a significant increase

The price trend in the downstream DOP market is mainly declining, with prices as of the weekend at 11566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the price of 11775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises are maintaining their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are losing profits, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the supply of plasticizers is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP is between 11500 and 11600 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride.

Looking at the future market, in the short term, the price trend of ortho xylene has increased, while the downstream plasticizer market has declined. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the short-term ortho phthalic anhydride market price will mainly rise due to strong support from raw materials.

Last week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound, continuing its previous upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose 2.45% in the week. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy is maintained at 80-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production of silicon material manufacturers has significantly decreased, mainly due to the impact of power restrictions on their devices, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a natural impact on production. In addition, although the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, the increment is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level; The short-term shortage of silicon materials remains relatively tight, which is also the main reason why silicon prices can continue to rise. At present, most silicon material companies have signed long-term orders for next month, and some individual orders continue to rise with tight market supply; Downstream silicon wafers have seen a rebound in demand for silicon materials.

On the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer production rate remains high, and the demand for silicon materials only increases without decreasing. The quotation for silicon wafers is soaring. However, downstream resistance towards high prices is gradually emerging, and the inventory of silicon wafers has increased, which may hinder prices in the later stage; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; And the export sector still faces uncertain prospects. This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: In the near future, the silicon material market may still remain relatively rigid and strong, and the demand side will not change too much. In the immediate future, it is necessary to continue to follow up, and the increment may gradually decrease. Therefore, the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future, with a slight increase as the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly increased. As of the 11th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% compared to the 4th price of 8587.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.22%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 11th, the price of ortho benzene was 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20% compared to the 4th price of 9100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the domestic price trend of ortho benzene. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has increased.

On the demand side: The DOP market has seen a significant increase

The price trend in the downstream DOP market is mainly declining, with prices as of the 11th at 11641.67 yuan/ton, a 3.06% decrease compared to the 4th at 12009.17 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are experiencing profit losses, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, with mainstream DOP prices ranging from 11600 to 11700 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride.

In the future, the price of ortho xylene remains high in the short term, while the trend of downstream plasticizers is declining. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the short term.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly increased. As of the 11th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3193.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the 4th price of 3187.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 15.35%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the spot supply of fluorite is tight. As a result, the market price of fluorite continues to rise.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to increase to 10000-10400 yuan/ton. Some devices are still in shutdown recently, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal. In the early stage, the sulfuric acid market price has risen significantly, which has affected the rise of the hydrofluoric acid market. The rise in hydrofluoric acid price to some extent supports the rise of the fluorite market, The fluorite market has slightly increased.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 25500 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased, To some extent, it is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future forecast: Although Mongolia’s imported fluorite mines have increased, the domestic supply of fluorite mines is difficult to improve. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the future. The refrigerant quota plan has recently stimulated the market, and the refrigerant market trend is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price of fluorite is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3333 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3366 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.00%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market price continues to rise, and the significant increase in the price of potassium chloride has driven the quotation of potassium sulfate manufacturers. The price of potassium chloride has slightly eased, but the cost pressure of potassium sulfate manufacturers has increased significantly. The operation of the Guotou Luo potassium plant has not yet resumed, with 52% of the powder arriving at the station mostly at 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is mainly based on order quantity negotiations, and the spot supply is relatively limited.

The supply of goods in the domestic potassium fertilizer market has significantly increased, and the operating rate of domestic potassium chloride manufacturers has significantly recovered. The supply of goods is mostly concentrated in shipping, and new goods have arrived in various regions one after another. The supply of imported potassium in the bonded zone is slowly clearing customs, and the sales volume of market traders has increased.

Prediction: The supply of domestic potassium fertilizer market is limited, and it is expected that the price of potassium sulfate market will mainly show a slight upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this month. At the beginning of the month, aniline showed an upward trend, and the price of aniline has decreased in the middle and late stages. On August 1st, the market price of aniline was 10262 yuan/ton; On August 31st, the price was 11500 yuan/ton, and the average price of aniline this month increased by 12.06% compared to the beginning of the month and 112.74% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has also increased this month, with prices gradually increasing. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, with styrene prices falling first and then rising, rising by 0.92% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7447 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 7550 yuan/ton, and the price has increased this month, a decrease of 1.08% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1940 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2035 yuan/ton. The price increased by 4.89% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 6.04% compared to the same period last year.

In August of this year, the price of aniline significantly increased, and the price remained stable in the middle of the year. The market has a strong bullish atmosphere, and there is no pressure on factory shipments. The quotation has been actively raised. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and the bidding prices of northern factories have increased, with strong cost support. The follow-up on the demand side is normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua’s maintenance plan within the past month, the market’s positive guidance is obvious. There is no pressure on aniline factory shipments, and the quotation continues to rise.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The demand for pure benzene in the region is strong, and downstream purchases are normal. Traders are just in need of restocking, driving the transaction center to continue to move upward, and crude oil is generally rising in the outer market.

Pure benzene still has the possibility of rising in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In August, there was a strong bullish atmosphere in the aniline market, and there was no pressure on factory shipments. The quotation was actively raised. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and in the future, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

In August, the market price of trichloromethane initially declined slightly and then increased significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2245 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.85% from 2062 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point during the cycle was 1962 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have fluctuated and risen, while the cost center of trichloromethane has rebounded; In August, the low starting price of the downstream R22 device slightly decreased, resulting in weak support for trichloromethane; In the second half of the month, the Fuqiang device was temporarily shut down, and a large factory in Shandong received a large foreign trade order. The inventory of the enterprise was low, and the market supply was tight. The factory prices of enterprises in the region were significantly increased, and the market for chloroform rebounded significantly.

In August, the overall operation of the methane chloride unit fluctuated slightly, with an operating rate ranging from 72% to 75%. The newly put into operation unit of Jiuhong is currently operating at low load, and its impact on the market is relatively small.

In August, the price of raw material methanol rose, while the price of liquid chlorine fell first and then rose overall. The cost support for trichloromethane strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% from 2355 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong province was at 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, dropped to 100 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and increased to 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price increased significantly at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month, and the cost was supported by trichloromethane.

In August, the price of refrigerant R22 slightly decreased and the construction started at a low level, with primary support for chloroform in demand. However, in 2023, the total production quota of R22 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for chloroform demand in the medium to long term is weak.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, demand for trichloromethane only needs support, and supply pressure is temporarily stable in the short term. Methanol prices are supported by high cost, and it is expected that the market for trichloromethane will fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of mixed xylene rose first, then fell and rose, and then slightly declined in August. On August 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.57% from 8180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The high point within the cycle is 8630 yuan/ton.

The inventory of mixed xylene remains low and the supply of goods remains relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of late August, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 16000 tons; There are around 2000 tons of mixed xylene warehouses in South China, with inventory decreasing by 8500 tons compared to the beginning of the month.

High level oscillation of crude oil still supports the cost of xylene

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Drive the toluene market higher. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. The cost support for toluene has weakened.

PX Price Slightly Rises, Opening Rate Maintains Over 70% Demand, Supports Mixed Xylene

In August, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, and PX external market prices remained at a high level. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were 1042-1044 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1067-1069 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is over 60%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend has slightly increased.

After the rise of ortho benzene in August, it stabilized and lacked support for mixed xylene in the later stage

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65% compared to 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha surged, supported by the cost of ortho benzene; In the second half of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell. The decline in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride was bearish for ortho phthalic anhydride, and plasticizer enterprises started operating at a low level. The demand for phthalic anhydride was weak, and ortho phthalic anhydride demand was weak. The price rise was weak.

The demand for xylene has been supported by the increase in gasoline and diesel consumption

The price of finished oil slightly increased in August. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level in August, and there is still some support for the cost of finished oil. The demand for refined oil products increased during the peak season in August. In terms of gasoline, it is at the peak stage of summer tourism, with frequent private car travel and an expanded radius of travel. The high temperature in summer has increased the use of oil for car air conditioners, resulting in strong demand. The domestic gasoline market trend is relatively strong. In addition, the recent downstream replenishment mentality is still acceptable, and the main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and various factors support strong willingness of merchants to increase prices. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, boosted by optimistic diesel export profits, domestic diesel export volume remains high, and market resource supply is tightening; On the other hand, since the beginning of autumn, the hot weather has gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries has gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing period, diesel demand has slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market.

Future forecast: In the short term, supported by international crude oil and naphtha costs, domestic supply remains tight, but downstream demand weakens after a significant increase in prices. It is expected that mixed xylene will operate at high levels in the future, but the upward trend may slow down.