Author Archives: lubon

Tin market price fluctuated and fell this week (2.10-2.14)

1、 Price trend

 

On February 16, the tin commodity index was 70.14, the same as yesterday, 30.03% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 63.65% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

2、 Market trend analysis

 

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Domestic market: the price of Lunxi rose this week, up $260 / ton or 1.6% as of Friday, with 736 transactions and 19882 positions, an increase of 734. As of Friday, Shanghai and Wuxi rose 620 yuan / ton, or 0.46%, with 37000 transactions and 38782 positions, up 2312. The spot market price is stable. Affected by the logistics and resumption of work, most manufacturers have not yet resumed work, sales are limited, and market transactions are limited. The main market price is 135000-140000 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

After the completion of next week’s delivery, because the overall supply is still increasing and the consumption is afraid that under the premise that the logistics cannot be fully opened, even if the resumption of work is gradually increasing everywhere, the activity of the spot will not be substantially improved, and the futures market performance of the basic metals will continue to fluctuate in the range, and under the signal that the epidemic has not obtained the inflection point, it is difficult for long-term trading to take a unilateral lead Restricted by logistics factors and slightly supported by prices, the company will focus on the logistics situation and resumption of work next week. It is expected that the spot market will fluctuate.

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China’s refined oil market prices fell this week (February 10-14)

1、 Price data

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel is basically stable this week. The price of domestic gasoline is 6126 yuan / ton, 2.37% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel is 5843 yuan / ton, 0.39% lower than that of last week.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: the international crude oil is running at a low level this week, with a large fluctuation range. At present, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil on February 18 is expected to be significantly reduced by 450 yuan / ton, and the market demand for refined oil is greatly reduced due to the impact of the epidemic.

 

Industrial chain: the international crude oil market is also affected by China’s epidemic situation. At present, China’s crude oil demand is severely suppressed, and the demand growth is relatively limited. At the same time, Russia’s attitude on deepening production reduction is not clear, and the crude oil market has doubts about the implementation of real production reduction. This week, the international oil price is running at a low level, with a large fluctuation range.

 

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Market: the sharp drop of international crude oil price suppresses the market price of refined oil. At the same time, in terms of gasoline demand, automobile travel is still limited, the market lacks substantial advantages, gasoline demand continues to be depressed, refinery inventory increases, and the overall performance of market transactions is still relatively weak. In terms of diesel, the crude oil news continued to be negative for the oil market. In addition, the terminal demand for industry, mining and transportation was limited, and the diesel market turnover was low, so refineries continued to reduce the price of diesel. This week’s oil product market price performance was low.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the price of international crude oil market has fallen to a low level, and the market price of refined oil has fallen to a low level. With the resumption of work and the alleviation of the epidemic, the market demand for refined oil will gradually increase. It is expected that the market price of refined oil will rebound in the near future.

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Weak and stable market of soda ash this week (1.13-1.17)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China was about 1550 yuan / ton, down 25.48% year on year. On January 18, the commodity index of light soda ash was 79.49, flat with yesterday, down 32.56% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.87% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is weak and stable, the market continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere is flat. Domestic mainstream market: the overall trend of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream soda needs to be purchased, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable before the festival. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly in need of rigid procurement, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable before the festival. The overall trend of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1550-1600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more narrow in the later period.

 

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Industry chain: the demand of downstream domestic glass, sodium metabisulfite and sodium styrofoam is not good. With the gradual progress of Spring Festival, the market inquiry and investment atmosphere gradually turns weak, and the overall shipment of the factory is slow. At present, the stable shipment is the main thing.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 2nd week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (0.60%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 0.85%). This week’s average was – 0.05%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, with the approaching of Spring Festival, the market atmosphere is falling down, the downstream market intention is general, the transaction is not good, the supplier’s quotation maintains stable shipment, and it is expected that the soda ash market will maintain stable operation before the festival, depending on the inventory situation and downstream market demand.

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The asphalt market price is stable this week (January 13-19)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt is stable this week, and the price of asphalt is reported to be 3420 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: the price of international crude oil market fell slightly. The asphalt plant operation rate continues to decline, and the overall demand of the market is also decreasing. This week, the asphalt market is stable.

 

Industry chain: EIA’s monthly report shows that the risk of major threat to oil supply seems to have subsided, and the oil production of non OPEC member countries is growing strongly, and the crude oil production of OPEC 1 is 700000 barrels / day higher than expected. The bad news of international crude oil market is constantly coming out. This week, the overall international oil price fell in shock, WTI crude oil price fell 0.47% in the week.

 

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In terms of asphalt Market: the asphalt production in Northeast China continues to decline, and the asphalt in Shandong Province also maintains a low start-up rate and low inventory; the demand in Southwest China is strong due to the rush to work before the festival, and the trading situation is optimistic. The asphalt market as a whole is relatively active in the South and relatively stable in the north. At present, the supply and demand of the overall asphalt market are both low, and the market price is stable.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that: in the short term, the crude oil market will continue to fluctuate and remain stable, and the supply and demand of the asphalt market are all at a low level. It is expected that the price of the asphalt market will continue to be stable next week.

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Potassium nitrate prices fell this week (01.13-01.17)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of domestic potassium nitrate declined in a weak way this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4337.50 yuan / ton, down 0.29%. The current price was 5.19% lower than last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market is in a weak decline, near the holiday, the recent domestic potassium fertilizer market has not shown any obvious signs of improvement, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market is relatively light, the downstream maintains the rigid demand for procurement, is in a stable consumption period, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the market is in a consolidation state. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. The downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and there is basically no stock up situation, and the price of potassium nitrate keeps fluctuating and falling. The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers is 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Potassium nitrate analyst of business association thinks: this week, the market of potassium nitrate fluctuates and falls, the supply of goods in the hands of traders is relatively sufficient, the potash fertilizer market has always been tepid and tepid, the downstream demand has not improved temporarily, it is expected that the demand of potassium nitrate will not change greatly in the short term, and the market may be in full swing.

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Ethylene market rose this week (01.06-01.10)

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market this week shows an upward trend. The average price of ethylene at the weekend is 790.50 USD / ton, up 3.23% from 765.75 USD / ton at the beginning of the week, and the current price is down 3.12% year on year.

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

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Product: ethylene is on the rise this week. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the weekend, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $775-785 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $690-700 / ton. The price of European ethylene market rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $883-893 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $795-803 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the week, the price was US $399-416 / ton. Overall, after new year’s day, the European and American ethylene market rose as a whole, and the whole ethylene market rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

 

Industry chain: International: on January 9, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to 59.56 US dollars / barrel, down 0.05 US dollars or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 65.37 US dollars / barrel, down 0.07 US dollars or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day. According to the news, oil production and transportation in the Middle East have not been substantially affected. The unexpected increase of crude oil inventory in the United States has led to the decline of crude oil price. However, the rise of crude oil for three consecutive trading days in the early stage still plays a supporting role in the price of ethylene. In the later stage, it is good to support the rise of ethylene price. This week, the external market of ethylene rose. The price of styrene in the lower reaches was concussive and consolidated, and the price of ethanol remained stable, which supported the price of ethylene.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to the ethylene analyst of business and chemical branch: recently disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is some uncertainty in the direction of the situation. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, so the ethylene price is expected to keep a narrow range in the future, which does not exclude the possibility of rising 。

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Copper price slightly fell 0.26% (1.6-1.10) this week

1、 Trend analysis

 

As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper price fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 48751.67 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 48625 yuan / ton, down 0.26%, up 2.53% year on year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Copper and copper price: LME copper in March this week rebounded from last week’s decline, closing at $6194, up 0.92%. This week, the Shanghai copper index rebounded from a low of 48540 yuan. It soared 48930 yuan in the middle of the week and finally closed at 48980 yuan. This week, the price rose 120 yuan, or 0.25%.

 

Copper fundamentals have not changed, the downstream has entered a light state before the festival, and spot copper is weak. The willingness of cash exchange of cargo holders increased, domestic passenger vehicle sales kept declining, and consumption improvement in copper market was limited.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Based on the above situation, the copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business society believe that the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile.

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Market analysis and forecast of organosilicon DMC on January 13

quotations analysis

 

In December, the organosilicon DMC market set off multiple rounds of price hikes, the manufacturers’ mentality improved, the downstream enterprises took the initiative to prepare goods, and the sales orders were positive. Near the Spring Festival of 2020, the organosilicon market has begun to “close down” one after another. Starting this week, the organosilicon manufacturers began to have holidays one after another, and many monomer factories have stopped for maintenance. Although some manufacturers said they would stick to the end of the month, the sales of organosilicon DMC market has changed from At the end of last week, it began to be cold gradually. Due to the optimistic market arrangement in the early stage, some orders of large factories have been booked to, inventory is not under pressure, and market stock has been basically completed. Before the Spring Festival, the market of organosilicon DMC is basically stable without suspense, and the market price will still be strong. The market is optimistic and waiting. As of January 13, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is about 18300-19200 yuan / ton; The spot exchange price quoted by some manufacturers is 18100 yuan / ton.

 

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Forecast for future market

 

According to the analysts of the business club: during the Spring Festival, many monomer factories stopped for maintenance, and heard that some monomer factories wanted to reduce the output of organosilicon DMC after the festival. Some middle and lower reaches manufacturers are optimistic about the opening market after the festival, and any small number of downstream enterprises began to prepare appropriate inventory, which also shows that downstream manufacturers are optimistic about the price trend of organosilicon DMC after the festival, which provides reverse support for the trend of organosilicon DMC after the festival, but also Some people in the industry are worried that the production capacity will be improved after the joint development, and the market may have a supply and demand situation with supply exceeding demand, which may also be the most important factor affecting the continuous rise of organosilicon DMC in the future market. However, in terms of the current situation, upstream manufacturers have little pressure on inventory, and maintain an optimistic high offer situation in the beginning of the year, but it is still uncertain how long the high market can last after the joint development, which is still needed Pay attention to the overall trend of the upstream and downstream market as well as the supply and demand after the festival.

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Increase of cost leads to increase of acetic anhydride price

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose this week. As of January 10, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 4612.50 yuan / ton, up 112.50 yuan / ton, or 2.50% compared with 4500.00 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the week, and down 23.34% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

Product analysis:

 

This week, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and rose. The ex factory price in North China was about 4500-4700 yuan / ton, the price in East China was about 4800 yuan / ton, and the price in South China was about 5300 yuan / ton. The price rose, and the actual transaction price rose about 100 yuan / ton. Acetic anhydride manufacturers’ inventory is low, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is rising. Acetic anhydride market is good.

 

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Industry chain factor analysis:

 

It can be seen from the figure that the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose this week, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the pressure of acetic anhydride falling weakened and the power of rising increased, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

 

It can be seen from the figure that this week’s methanol price fluctuated and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened and the upward momentum increased, and the price of acetic anhydride rose, which is good for the future market of acetic anhydride.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the prices of acetic anhydride raw materials, acetic acid and methanol have both recovered this week, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the market of acetic anhydride has been favorable, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased; as the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream customers start to stock up, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers of acetic anhydride has increased, the demand for acetic anhydride has increased, and the low inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers has increased the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride. Generally speaking, acetic anhydride market in the future is expected to rise in shock.

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With the Spring Festival approaching, the price of glycol will be adjusted by fluctuation (12.30-1.3)

1、 Price trend

 

The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 3, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5150 yuan / ton, down 2.57% from last week.

 

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4965 yuan / ton. After a five-day shock adjustment, by Friday, the price was 5015 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 1.01%.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

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As of January 2, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 67.60%, down 0.72% compared with Friday.

 

At present, the commissioning of Hengli Petrochemical glycol unit has been completed, and it has been stopped waiting for the ethylene link to be opened.

 

As of January 2, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 415000 tons, down 11500 tons or 2.85% from last Thursday, down 21000 tons or 5.33% from this Monday. Among them, there are 188000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 11000 tons lower than last Thursday; 85000 tons in Ningbo; 39000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu; 68000 tons in Taicang.

 

According to the news, from January 2 to January 8, it is estimated that 146000 tons will arrive at the main port of East China, about 80000 tons at Zhangjiagang wharf, about 31000 tons at Taicang and about 27000 tons at Ningbo.

 

In the downstream, polyester market gradually shut down for holidays. At present, the unit operation rate is 79.81%, and the production and sales ratio is 47.00%. The short-term supply is just needed, and the middle-line demand is weak.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

This week, the shipment of glycol port has increased, so although the cargo has arrived at the port, the inventory still has decreased. In the later stage, the new equipment will be started one after another, and the arrival of cargo will increase, which will affect the market confidence. Downstream polyester gradually entered the pre Festival demand reduction period, the operating rate will continue to decline, glycol price lack of support. Combined with the above factors, glycol analysts believe that glycol prices will face shock adjustment in the short term.

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