In June 2026, the bearish trend in the butadiene market was concentrated, and the market continued to decline unilaterally, with a significant shift in the price center of gravity. This month, upstream raw material prices have continued to fall, cost support has been continuously weakened, coupled with relatively sufficient domestic butadiene supply and steady accumulation of social inventory. At the same time, downstream industries have entered the traditional off-season, with insufficient demand follow-up, and overall market trading is relatively light. Traders are more willing to offer discounts for shipments, and the market mainly relies on low-level replenishment of rigid demand, resulting in weak overall market fundamentals. From June 1st to 30th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11800 yuan/ton to 8866.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 24.86% during the period.
Cost aspect: International crude oil prices have continued to fall within the month, and the premium caused by the previous geopolitical situation has basically disappeared, driving the prices of domestic raw materials such as naphtha and cracking C4 to decline synchronously. The cost of raw materials for butadiene production has been continuously loosened. The domestic spot price of ethylene has synchronously declined, easing the production pressure on refining enterprises, restoring production profits, and weakening the mentality of manufacturers to support prices. At the same time, the price of butadiene in the external market continues to decline, and the cost of imported goods arriving at the port continues to decrease, which continues to suppress the domestic spot market price. The increase in low-priced goods in the market further drives the overall market downward. As of June 29th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.75 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September contract is $73.91 per barrel.
Supply side:
In June, the overall supply of butadiene in China was relatively loose, and the market supply was relatively sufficient, resulting in an accumulation of inventory. Although some domestic facilities have undergone periodic maintenance this month, the overall scale of maintenance is limited. Most of the main facilities maintain normal load production, while some facilities increase production as needed. The overall supply of domestic goods is stable and sufficient, completely offsetting the reduction caused by maintenance. At the same time, the imported goods arrived at the port normally, further supplementing the domestic market supply. Under the overall supply pressure, the pace of downstream pickup has slowed down, and the inventory of ports and traders continues to accumulate. There is ample supply of spot goods in circulation, and the pressure on merchants to ship is relatively high. In order to promote the flow of goods at low prices and make concessions, further dragging down market prices.

Demand side:
The off-season characteristics of downstream demand in June are obvious, and the overall rigid demand is weak, making it difficult to form effective support for the market. This month, the tire industry has entered a traditional off-season for consumption, with a decrease in terminal orders and a backlog of finished product inventory. Domestic tire companies have continued to decline in production, and the demand for Shunding rubber procurement has significantly decreased. Downstream factories are restocking at low prices according to demand, and the mentality of bargaining for goods is widespread. At the same time, mainstream downstream industries such as ABS and SBS have poor profitability, low production enthusiasm of enterprises, low industry operation, weak willingness to proactively replenish raw materials, and a quiet trading atmosphere on site. Only a small amount of latex industry maintains essential procurement, and the overall demand volume is limited, which cannot improve the weak market pattern and further exacerbates market pessimism.
Recently, the domestic market price of butadiene rubber has continued to decline. As of June 26, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 13010 yuan/ton at the end of February; The closing price of the main contract for Shunding rubber futures fell to 11810 yuan/ton. We have completely reversed all the gains caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict and returned to the benchmark range before the conflict broke out.

Market forecast:
Based on the overall market fundamentals in June, the weak pattern of the domestic butadiene market is unlikely to show significant improvement in the short term, and the market is likely to continue a weak and volatile trend. There is currently no significant expectation of cost boost, and the weak pattern of crude oil and raw material prices continues, making it difficult to provide support for spot prices; The overall supply of goods on the supply side is sufficient, and the pressure of accumulated inventory still exists, making it difficult to alleviate the short-term pressure on market shipments; The traditional off-season on the demand side continues, and downstream industries such as tires and ABS are unlikely to see a significant rebound in production. The boost to demand is limited, and the market’s wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards purchasing will still dominate trading. Overall, the short-term rebound momentum of the butadiene market is insufficient, and the market is mainly consolidating weakly. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of crude oil, the recovery of downstream production, and the fundamental changes brought about by changes in equipment maintenance.