According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market is relatively stable, and the direct price of heavy rare earth market drops slightly. On November 21, the rare earth index was 749 points, which is the same as yesterday, 25.10% lower than the highest point 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and 176.38% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market price has maintained a high level. Recently, the price trend of mainstream praseodymium neodymium commodities in the rare earth market is mainly stable. In terms of products:
It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium and metal praseodymium are stable, the prices of praseodymium oxide are slightly lower, and the prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy are slightly higher. On the whole, the price changes little, and the market trend is stable. As of November 22, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 817500 yuan / ton, which was flat this week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 835000 yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 0.6% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 787500 yuan / ton, and the price trend rose by 0.32% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 960000 yuan / ton, with a rise of 0.79% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 1.08 million yuan / ton, which is stable this week; The price of neodymium is 990000 yuan / ton. The price is stable this week. The domestic light rare earth market is relatively stable. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the field, and the light rare earth market price remains at a high level.
The domestic rare earth market is fair, the supply and demand structure changes little, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances continues to increase, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand is fair. In addition, the strong demand for permanent magnet and the rapid development of new energy industry have driven the development of many industries. The upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express” of new energy. The main rare earth raw materials of high-performance Nd-Fe-B are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal. The demand for rare earths is high, and the price of rare earth oxides is maintained. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on wait-and-see and purchases cautiously. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing, the traditional peak demand season for rare earth is coming, superimposing the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, the supply and demand is expected to resonate with the policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shipping willingness of the holders is low, and the rare earth price remains high. Finally, the shortage of rare earth supply continues. The supply of rare earth waste is also tight and the price is strong, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is upside down. With the arrival of the procurement cycle of magnetic material enterprises, the price of praseodymium neodymium system remains at a high level. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2021, the number of pure electric vehicles has increased by 1101000 year-on-year, and the number of plug-in hybrid vehicles has increased by 211000 year-on-year. The substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market is continuing. The demand for new energy is high in recent years, and the price of domestic light rare earth market remains high.
As can be seen from the trend chart, the price of dysprosium Series in China decreased slightly. As of the 22nd, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.92 million yuan / ton, down 1.85% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.89 million yuan / ton, down 2.36% this week; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.78 million yuan / ton, down 1.69% this week; Domestic terbium prices rose and fell. Domestic terbium oxide prices were 10.65 million yuan / ton and metal terbium prices were 14.4 million yuan / ton. The transaction situation in the domestic rare earth market is general. The leading magnetic material factory mainly purchases on demand. Recently, it has been cautious to wait and see. The resistance to high priced rare earth has increased, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has declined slightly. At present, the rare earth supply in Myanmar is still not smooth, the supply disturbance has further aggravated, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the domestic supply is tight. The production reduction risk of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth supply is tight. In addition, it is in the peak season of heavy rare earth, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has little decline.
In addition, with the support of national policies, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in early July that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and the national level legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is acceptable, and the price of domestic rare earth market remains high.
With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. The recent on-site transaction market is OK, but the downstream procurement is not active recently and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the price trend of rare earth market may remain high in the later stage, There is also room for a slight rise.