Price Trend

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise in March. At the beginning of the month, the enterprises of trichloromethane in Shandong Province quoted 2630 yuan/ton more. At the end of the month, the average price was about 326 yuan/ton, which rose by 22.31% in a month.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: Due to the low overhaul burden and inventory of trichloromethane enterprises in Shandong, and the steady demand for trichloromethane in the downstream R22 refrigerant market, the spot supply of trichloromethane in Shandong is tight, and the enterprises continue to raise their quotations. In terms of start-up, at present, 440,000 tons/year plant of Jinling Chemical Industry is in full load; 120,000 tons/year plant of Dongying Jinmao is in full load operation; 300,000 tons/year plant of Shanxi Chemical Industry is in operation 40%; 160,000 tons/year plant of Jiangsu Science and Technology is in normal operation; 120,000 tons/year plant of Jiangxi Science and Technology is in normal operation, etc. At present, Shandong offers about 3200-3250 yuan/ton, Jiangsu about 4000 yuan/ton and Jiangxi about 3650 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the explosion of Jiangsu chemical plant, rising first and then falling within a month, falling by 2.71% within a month, and the average price is about 2372 yuan/ton at present; the high level operation of liquid chlorine market, due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the Shandong market shows a situation of short supply and demand. At present, the price of Shandong is more than 250-400 yuan/ton, 50-100 yuan/ton in eastern China, and the subsidized freight in some areas is about 250-400 yuan/ton. About 200 yuan per ton. On the downstream side, the R22 refrigerant market rose first and then stabilized. At present, the downstream demand is not good, and the supply in the industry is stable. Now the enterprise’s bulk water outlet is reported to be 18500-18800 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical industry sector on March 28, 2019. The top three commodities are Polymerized MDI (2.95%), Calcium Carbide (1.77%) and Ammonium Chloride (1.49%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, one of which is more than 5%, accounting for 1.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines are PX (-8.75%), butadiene (-4.52%) and styrene (-4.33%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the downstream market demand for trichloromethane in China has slowed down, the overhaul burden of trichloromethane enterprises has decreased a lot, the spot supply is tight and inventory is low, and the market of trichloromethane is expected to run steadily in the near future.