The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

The price of ethylene glycol loosened in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the average price of 4485 yuan/ton on September 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of the spot contract for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) will operate smoothly on September 30, 2025. The transaction range of the basis within the contract days before October 10 is+64 to+67, with mainstream major traders sporadically accepting spot goods. As of the close of trading, the contract basis price is+68 to+69 before September 30th, and+68 to+71 below October.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3930-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of September 29th, recent ship cargo negotiations have resulted in transactions around $506 per ton.
The main reasons for the downward shift in ethylene glycol prices in September are:
Supply increase
In September, there were significant changes in the domestic supply of ethylene glycol, which had a significant impact on its price. In July and August, multiple units underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, resulting in supply contraction and port inventory depletion, providing significant support for the price of ethylene glycol. But as we entered September, the domestic comprehensive construction rate showed a significant rebound. The pressure of increasing supply is becoming more prominent. In the third quarter, the operating rates of various process routes for ethylene glycol fully recovered, and the operating load of coal to ethylene glycol increased significantly from 58.95% in July to 66.60% in September. The operating rate of petroleum to ethylene glycol also rebounded from 64.11% in July to 74.62% in September, and the comprehensive operating rate in September has exceeded 71%. The domestic ethylene glycol supply side has entered a steady growth channel, and the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has weakened the factors that previously supported prices and suppressed the ethylene glycol price in September.
Downstream high operating terminal demand is weak

The demand side of ethylene glycol shows a characteristic of high production but continuous weak demand, which has constrained the price of ethylene glycol in September. The downstream polyester industry has maintained a high load of over 87%, and the support of essential needs should have boosted prices. Among them, the quarterly average of polyester filament production reached a high of 91.33%, with slight fluctuations, which strongly supported the overall production level; The quarterly operating rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 3.12% to 87.42% month on month, mainly due to the increase in enterprise load and the commissioning of new facilities. However, the continuous weak growth of orders in the terminal weaving field has led to a low willingness of polyester factories and traders to replenish inventory, limited market trading activity, and difficulty in forming an effective driving force to push up ethylene glycol prices. At the same time, the operating rate of bottle grade PET has experienced the most significant decline, with a quarterly average of only 72.45%, a significant decrease of 9.38% compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to the long-term maintenance or conversion of some units; The operating rate of fiber grade PET also slightly decreased compared to the previous period. The quarterly average operating rate of the domestic polyester industry is 86.98%. Although it has slightly decreased by 4.09 percentage points compared to the second quarter, there is some seasonal slowdown pressure, but the monthly operating rate has remained stable within a narrow range of 86.5% to 87.3%. Overall, the weak performance on the demand side resulted in a lack of strong upward momentum for ethylene glycol prices in September.
The probability of ethylene glycol prices starting weak and then strong in October is high
The overall inventory of ethylene glycol ports is still relatively low, and there is currently little pressure on spot supply. The recent price decline is mainly due to considerations of pre holiday warehousing costs, weak willingness of traders to hold goods, weak medium – and long-term expectations, and weak downstream terminal hoarding willingness. During the National Day holiday, large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia arrived in Hong Kong. The total planned arrival volume of ethylene glycol at East China ports next week is 228000 tons, which is relatively high. The expectation of a rebound in port inventory has to some extent suppressed the price of ethylene glycol in mid to early October. After weak expectations and early pricing, ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and recover. There is a high probability that the price of ethylene glycol will first weaken and then strengthen in October.

In September, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6800 yuan/ton on September 1st and 6846 yuan/ton on September 29th, with similar fluctuations in major mainstream markets across the country.
In the first ten days, the market experienced a rapid upward trend. In the first half of the year, the main focus was on supplementing domestic trade with cargo in the East China region. Despite significant delays in operations, there was a clear shortage of supply in port inventory. As of the 15th, the inventory at Jiangyin Port was only 5000 tons, which remained low for the previous week. In the first ten days, the phenol market quickly rose and broke through 7000 yuan/ton.

In the second half of the year, after a rapid upward trend, the market experienced a rational correction due to the comprehensive acceptance of high prices by end-users and the negative impact of cost factors. Although the supply side was still tight at that time, high prices were difficult to support. At the same time, the monthly average price was high in the second half of the year, and the market showed a downward trend. Sinopec also adjusted its listing price accordingly.
In terms of equipment, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants has dropped to a low point of 66%.
Business Society expects to pay more attention to downstream stocking before the National Day holiday. Currently, there is not much pressure on Jiangyin Port’s inventory. With the gradual restart of parking facilities, downstream stocking before the holiday will also be affected by the industry’s operating rate, with more stocking on demand. After the holiday, there may be more stocking on demand. Overall, apart from short-term support in the phenol market supply, there will be significant market pressure in the later stages, and the market will mainly operate weakly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of September 28th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2383.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 2357.50 yuan/ton on September 22nd.

The rise in crude oil prices this week is mainly due to the potential supply risk caused by the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the possible escalation of the US sanctions against some oil producing countries, which will superimpose on the decline of the US commercial crude oil inventory to jointly support oil prices.
This week, the market for refined petroleum coke has slightly increased, with average shipments from refineries. Recently, the price of petroleum coke has fluctuated; Recently, some refineries have reduced their inventory before the holiday, coupled with cautious downstream procurement, which has limited support for the petroleum coke market. Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke from ports has been acceptable, while the price of sponge coke continues to rise and inquiries have increased.
This week, the market for calcined coke has remained stable with an upward trend, and downstream purchases are relatively active. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to increase prices for newly signed orders.
Market forecast: Currently, orders from some manufacturers during the holiday period have basically ended, and downstream demand still exists, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that petroleum coke will remain stable and consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 19th to 26th, the domestic ethanol price was 5550 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 1.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.08%. Due to pre holiday and downstream stocking in some regions, the transaction price of corn ethanol in the market has slightly increased. Some regions have significant logistics restrictions, mainly consuming local sources of goods, resulting in narrow fluctuations in the market.

On the cost side, new grain products are being launched one after another, and regional market trends are emerging in various regions. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.
On the supply side, the impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, the terminal demand has improved, the starting load of solvent and downstream demand has risen, the starting of Baijiu factories may increase, the ethanol consumption has increased, and the demand for food preparation before the festival has risen. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Market forecast: Under the influence of pre holiday stocking, factories are actively shipping. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the short-term ethanol market is expected to rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% of industrial grade formic acid in China has shown weak performance recently. As of September 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society formic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week and in the middle of the year.

Fundamentals: Dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand
On the supply side: stable output, the operating rate of major domestic enterprises remains above 70%, and the maintenance plan of Liaocheng factory has not been executed as scheduled, which has disappointed the market’s expectations of supply contraction. As of September 18th, the inventory of major enterprises has begun to come under pressure, and some enterprises have extended their inventory cycles to more than 15 days.
Demand side: structural differentiation under weak recovery
Traditional fields: Agriculture is in a seasonal adjustment period, with weak growth in demand for feed additives; The leather and textile industries are affected by sluggish terminal consumption, with a production rate of less than 60%.
Emerging fields: Demand for environmentally friendly materials, biodiesel catalysts, etc. has increased, but the scale is relatively small, making it difficult to offset the weakness in traditional fields.
Export market: Strong export orders in August (Shandong’s major factories were ranked until September), but new orders signed in September were flat, with the main force executing previously backlogged orders, weakening market support.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market presents the characteristics of “oversupply, weak demand, and price pressure”. In the short term, the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to fundamentally improve, and prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 15th to 19th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 15083 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15016 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.44% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 16.96%. During the week, the aggregated MDI supply remained stable with average inquiries and few transactions, resulting in a slight downward shift in the actual transaction price center. Intermediary quotations follow the market trend, while large factories maintain stable quotations. The news support is limited, and the trading atmosphere is average.

On the supply side, the 80000 tons/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an restarted on August 26th and the plant has returned to normal.
On the cost side, pure benzene has slightly increased this week. International oil prices have risen and the Double Festival is approaching, with downstream demand for stocking up. Pure benzene prices have fluctuated and risen, and the future market is limited by the weak impact of its own fundamentals, with limited upward space. The aniline market saw a slight increase, with stable supply and demand, and a stable future.
On the demand side, the downstream market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the Jinjiu market has not shown significant improvement. With weak fundamentals, the aggregated MDI market is difficult to pick up.
Future forecast: Currently, the supplier’s production is stable, the source of goods is filling quickly, and the demand is not strong. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

The domestic fluorite prices have continued to rise this week, with an average price of 3318.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 1.14% from the early week price of 3281.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.67%.

Supply side: Low mining operation, tight supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight. In addition, the market’s bullish expectations have led to an increase in the reluctance of holders to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. Fluorite mining enterprises choose factories and hold up prices to sell, resulting. With the decrease in temperature in the north, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, and the market supply is further tightening, resulting in a strong fluorite market.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 10800-11500 yuan/ton in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, the hydrofluoric acid market has risen, and the enthusiasm for purchasing fluorite has increased. This news has affected the price of fluorite to rise.
The downstream refrigerant market continues to rise, and the refrigerant industry is strengthening its terminal policies. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the good inventory of the industry is orderly transmitted, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, and the fluorite market has risen.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market, and the mentality of buying up rather than buying down is obvious; In addition, the supply of fluorite in the northern region will become tighter in the later stage, and the downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and refrigerants will be stronger. However, hydrofluoric acid enterprises will mainly purchase according to demand. Overall, the fluorite market price trend is expected to rise in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China continued to decline this week. As of September 5th, the average market price in East China was 14100 yuan/ton, and on September 1st, the average price was 14700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.08% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 2.92%.

This week, the TDI market continued its downward trend. The on-site trading is relatively quiet, and the supply of goods is relatively stable. Mainly driven by downstream demand, enter the market at low prices. Intermediary quotes follow the market trend, and the market lacks positive news to boost it. Under the guidance of buyers, the focus of TDI transactions continues to decline.
Supply side: The TDI plant in Yantai will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 19th, with an expected maintenance period of about 40 days. Other devices maintain stable operation.
Cost wise: The overall market for toluene is weak, with a moderate trading atmosphere and weak supply and demand.
Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current trading atmosphere in the TDI market is weak, and downstream resistance to high prices is not reduced. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

Entering September, the domestic acetone market continued to decline. The acetone market in East China has been trading at an average price of 4550 yuan/ton since September 1st, and has dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 4450 yuan/ton on September 2nd. From the perspective of the national acetone market, there are fluctuations of the same magnitude.

The market has abundant spot resources, but there is pressure on manufacturers to ship, while the intention of terminal replenishment is not high, and trading is clearly insufficient. Huizhou Zhongxin Phase II plant has resumed operation, while Jiangsu Ruiheng plant has been shut down for maintenance. Traders have a strong intention to ship, but actual orders have declined.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on September 2nd are as follows:
Region. Quotation on September 2nd /9.1-2 Rise and Fall
East China region / 4450-4480./ -100
Shandong region / 4550-4650./ -150
Yanshan region / 4600./ -150
South China region/4600./-150

From the perspective of Business Society, the pace of downstream procurement at the beginning of the month was mainly focused on small orders and urgent needs. Recently, acetone has maintained weak operation and is waiting for changes in demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol continued to decline in August. On August 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 5900 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the average price was 5608.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.94% compared to the beginning of the month.
The market price of isopropanol continued to decline in August. The acetone raw material market continued to decline in the first ten days, affecting confidence in the isopropanol market. Downstream market demand is weak, inventory is increasing, and isopropanol market prices are decreasing. In the mid month, the demand for isopropanol in the market is mainly due to limited transactions, and the market continues to decline. In the latter half of the year, trading in the isopropanol market was light, with average on-site discussions and a decrease in market prices. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5450-5500 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu are around 5650-5600 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market fell in August. On August 1st, the average price of acetone was 4820 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the average price was 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.56%. At present, the acetone market is at a low level, and the trading atmosphere in the market is average. Expected to continue the weak and volatile market trend.
In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market prices rose in August. On August 1st, the market average was 6403.25 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the average price was 6663.25 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.06%. At present, the inventory of propylene enterprises is low, and downstream costs are gradually under pressure. It is expected that the market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price will continue to decline in August. At present, the trading atmosphere in the isopropanol market is average, with cautious actual orders and a mostly stagnant market. It is expected that isopropanol will remain stable in the short term, and more attention will be paid to the trend of the raw material market.