According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market continued to fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the drop in this month was 2.09%, 7.53% lower than the peak in mid October. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10200-10400 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.
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Industrial chain
The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week (October 31 to November 4). Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream of adipic acid fell heavily, with the decline of 4.49% for pure benzene and 6.61% for cyclohexane. While the cost side is negative, it relieves the cost pressure of adipic acid production. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.
Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline
This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 4.49%. On the one hand, the guiding price of the main refinery was lowered by 250 yuan/ton, which dampened the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, the inventory pressure of styrene and pure benzene manufacturers is high this week, and the increase in supply puts pressure on the market. The superposition of ports has led to a sharp increase in domestic supply. On the other hand, affected by road restrictions, the poor flow of goods further limits the market circulation and circulation speed. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is between 6900-7400 yuan/ton.
It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.
Supply side: Some adipic acid plants slightly increased the negative operating rate
From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of this month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the collection price of Shandong Dachang was significantly reduced by 500 yuan/ton, which brought pressure to the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid is approaching 60% this week. Xinjiang Tianli plant resumed operation, in addition, Taihua plant was lifted; However, at the same time, one set of Shenma equipment entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month, while the rest of the equipment did not change much, and the overall supply rebounded slightly. The enterprise continues to accumulate the stock.
Demand side: weak downstream demand to maintain rigid demand
Adipic acid downstream performance is tepid, the demand side is weak, the market buying is light, and the early inventory is mainly digested. Downstream factories are cautious in taking goods, and sporadic just need to make up orders to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 0 this week. Since August, PA66 has continued to rise, mainly due to the manufacturer’s equipment maintenance and the shortage of market supply. The market has stopped rising since late October. The cost and sales pressure of polymerization plants increased, and the market callback pressure increased. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.
Future outlook
The business community believes that, on the cost side, the later period of crude oil shock and rise may bring benefits to pure benzene. However, considering that the supply pressure of pure benzene is still large, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve too much in the later period, and it is undoubtedly difficult to boost the cost of adipic acid. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.
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