This week (6.8-12), the domestic trend of liquid ammonia was weak, continuing last week’s correction. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.75%. The main reason is that under the background of stable downstream demand, local production increases and supply continues to exert pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2000-2300 yuan/ton.

From the supply side, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week. Previously, some units underwent maintenance, and production in northern regions slightly decreased. This week, enterprise units gradually recovered, ammonia production increased, and the market slowly increased, resulting in a slight increase in market supply. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, most companies did not adjust their prices, and some companies in Shandong lowered their prices by less than 100 yuan. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand.
From the demand side perspective, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level, especially in northern regions where agricultural demand is relatively weak, wheat harvest window period is empty, and downstream procurement is cooling down. Affected by weak demand and insufficient sustained demand in the later stage, according to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea was 0.42%. The urea range has adjusted, and the price is still at a relatively low level since April. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Analysts believe that liquid ammonia may remain stagnant in the short term, with little change in equipment and a relatively abundant supply pattern. In addition, there are not many favorable factors on the demand side, limited replenishment of agricultural demand, on-demand procurement in the market, and industrial rigid demand as the main focus. There are currently no bright spots in the market, and the ammonia market may maintain an adjustment pattern.