On October 27, the crude benzol commodity index was 97.64, down 4.62 points from yesterday, 25.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 219.71% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
| Melamine |
In October 2022, the crude benzene market rose first and then fell. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6165 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 7.5%.
In October, the crude oil fluctuated widely and rose on the whole. As of the 27th day, the SC crude oil had jumped out of the stalemate for several consecutive days, and the market’s bullish enthusiasm rose rapidly. On the 27th, the main contract of SC crude oil rose 1.83% to close at 678.9 yuan/barrel. Macroscopically, the US dollar has declined, and the pressure on US dollar denominated commodities has eased; In addition, the weak economic data strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase, and the oil market received some support. On the supply and demand side, the US oil export reached a record high, which was beneficial to the higher operating rate of US refineries.
In the short term, the macro and supply and demand sides are good for the oil market, and the oil price is short-term or strong. However, the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia is coming into effect soon. The oil market is uncertain due to the disturbance of such factors as geopolitics. In the medium and long term, the bad news on the demand side will continue to suppress oil prices. The increased risk of the global economy entering recession will make the oil market continue to maintain a volatile trend. A short-term rebound cannot change the long-term trend.
| EDTA |
Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)
Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount
October 8., 8000.,+150
October 10., 8200.,+200
October 13., 8000., – 200
October 18., 7850., – 150
October 26., 7650., – 200
The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene. In October 2022, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has risen twice and decreased three times, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton and a decrease of 550 yuan/ton. As of the 28th, the price will be 7650 yuan/ton.
Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7530 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Weilian Chemical quoted 7503 yuan/ton.
In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell in October. During the National Day holiday, the crude oil price rose significantly. After the festival, the pure benzene market was significantly boosted. After the festival, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, which again boosted the market mentality. The market price rose significantly. After the festival, there was a certain demand for replenishment in some downstream markets. The superimposed market atmosphere was good. After the festival, the market trading was warm, and the price of pure benzene was adjusted at a high level for a period of time. By the middle of October, the downstream weakness had declined, adversely affecting the upstream market. The concentrated arrival of pure benzene at ports had once again affected the market mentality. The pure benzene market began to enter the downward channel. Sinopec had lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene for four consecutive times since about the 13th, and the spot market had fallen significantly, and the market trading was relatively cold. The trend of hydrogenated benzene followed that of pure benzene this month, which was basically a high shock in the first half of the month, while the price in the second half of the month dropped significantly.
The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall.
In terms of crude benzol market, the trend fluctuated at an initial high in October and began to decline significantly in the middle of the year, basically following the overall trend of the industrial chain. As of the last bidding day of October 27, the mainstream price in Shandong was 6250~6255 yuan/ton, 560 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month. Near the end of the month, affected by the weak overall performance of the industrial chain, the profits of benzol hydrogenation enterprises were tightened. It was heard that some enterprises had maintenance plans, and the demand for crude benzene was afraid to decline. Coking enterprises are about to enter the heating season. Coking enterprises are facing off peak production. At that time, the output of by-products will decline, and the supply of crude benzol in the future is expected to be tight. In general, the bad news and good news in the crude benzol market are intertwined. Under the market environment of tight supply and declining demand, the crude benzol price is expected to be stable and weak. In the future, we will focus on the guidance of crude oil price trend on the industrial chain and the change of operating rate of coking enterprises.
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