In May 2026, Shandong Heavy Duty Asphalt Spot showed a narrow range fluctuation trend with no unilateral rise or fall. The mainstream quotation for the whole month was between 4360-4410 yuan/ton, with a monthly fluctuation of only 50 yuan/ton. The slight rebound of crude oil in the first half of the year led to a slight increase in prices;

Continuous rainfall in the province in mid month, coupled with the suspension of road construction, has dragged down the demand for essential goods, resulting in downward pressure on prices; In the latter half of the month, crude oil weakened and refineries slightly reduced their inventory, causing prices to hit the bottom again. However, low inventory strongly supported the bottom market, and at the end of the month, the range continued to fluctuate.
Supply side: Refineries are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the supply of goods continues to be tight. In May, the main asphalt refineries in Shandong underwent centralized maintenance, with the Landbridge unit continuously shut down and the Xinhai unit shut down, with only a few units resuming production. The regional asphalt operating rate remained low, with an average weekly operating rate of only 20.4%, a significant year-on-year decline. The profit of asphalt production is deeply inverted, and refineries have a strong willingness to actively control production and reduce output. Regional and social inventories continue to deplete, and spot circulation sources are tight, firmly holding the bottom of prices and limiting the potential for deep market declines.
On the demand side: Rainfall is dragging down construction, and terminal demand is weak. The demand in May is the core bearish factor that suppresses the price increase of asphalt. In mid to late May, there were multiple rounds of rainfall in Shandong, causing widespread suspension of outdoor road paving and maintenance projects, and causing a cliff like decline in terminal demand. The market transaction shows a trend of initially high and then low, with favorable weather in the first ten days and concentrated replenishment of engineering to support shipment; In the second half of the year, both traders and construction companies remained cautious, purchasing and selling as needed throughout the entire market, with no speculative hoarding demand. The demand for essential goods was unable to bear the driving force of price increases.
The fluctuation of crude oil drives short-term volatility, and the trend of futures and present is differentiated. International crude oil fluctuated widely in May, becoming the main cause of short-term fluctuations in asphalt prices. However, due to weak local fundamentals, the fluctuation of asphalt spot prices is far less than that of crude oil, resulting in weak cost transmission. The futures market closely follows the fluctuations of crude oil, with greater emotional fluctuations; However, Shandong’s spot market operates closely to local inventory and actual demand, with differentiated futures and spot trends, further stabilizing the volatile pattern of spot market.
In June, the rainfall in the province gradually ended, and road construction resumed in a concentrated manner. The terminal demand is expected to be repaired; At the same time, the refinery has no plans to resume production, and supply remains tight. It is expected that Shandong asphalt will experience strong fluctuations in June, with a slight upward shift in the price range. Overall, it is still difficult to shake off the volatile market, and the probability of a unilateral rise or fall is relatively low. In May, Shandong asphalt was affected by the dual effects of low supply bottoming out and weak demand topping out, coupled with the absence of unilateral crude oil prices, resulting in significant overall range fluctuations. The key focus of the subsequent market trend will be the recovery of essential demand after resuming work and the direction of international crude oil prices. These two factors will determine whether the market can break through the current volatile range in the future.