1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market price fluctuated and fell in November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of maleic anhydride as of November 30 was 7000.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 6.42% from 7480.00 yuan/ton on November 1.

On November 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 65.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.38% from the highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 28.84% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market continued to shut down. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to shut down in December. At the beginning of the month, it is in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continues to fall. The resin is operated cautiously and mainly purchased on demand. At the end of the month, the logistics in many places across the country was blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in major factories was sufficient. However, Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturers began to close their doors and wait. Shandong manufacturers reduced their production, and the price of maleic anhydride showed an upward trend. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 6750 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7200 yuan/ton.

In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.

In November, the hydrogenation benzene market showed a downward trend. The ex factory price in North China was 7733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 10.56% month on month. The hydrogenation benzene market as a whole is still weak in the near future. The performance of crude oil and styrene is still weak. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. Affected by the decline of pure benzene, the price of hydrogenation benzene continues to decline. There are some bargain hunting purchases in the market, and the deal is fair. In terms of supply, East China has a relatively sufficient supply of imported goods, which has a certain drag on the market mentality.

3、 Future market forecast

Maleic anhydride product analysts from the business community believe that the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in November. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market suffers from a serious deficit in benzene oxidation process. The factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to stop in December. In the first ten days of this year, it was in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continued to fall. The resin was operated cautiously, and it was mainly purchased on demand. At present, the logistics in many places across the country is blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the main factories is sufficient. However, the manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have begun to close the offer and wait, while the production of Shandong manufacturers has decreased, and the price has an upward trend at the end of the month. Maleic anhydride market is expected to rise in the near future.