1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market rose slightly this week. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of October 23, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5633.33 yuan / ton, up 1.20% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.60% higher than September 23, and 11.18% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. This week, the domestic demand is stable, and the increase of export orders supports the price rise. At present, the enterprises are supported by the orders received in advance and the goods are OK. The melamine commodity index on October 23 was 60.57, flat with yesterday, down 39.43% from 100.00 (2011-09-18), and 11.18% higher than the lowest point of 54.48 on July 26, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 5500 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton.

Upstream urea, on October 23, urea market in the East rose slightly. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 38 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector in the 42 weeks (10.19-10.23) list of commodity price rise and fall in 2020, including 7 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 7.6% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities of increase are butadiene (19.12%), hydrogen peroxide (12.76%) and DMF (12.17%). There were 19 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were acetone (- 9.67%), R22 (- 4.60%) and baking soda (- 4.18%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that the price of upstream urea has risen slightly in the near future, and the cost support has been strengthened. At present, the enterprises mainly focus on the early order delivery. It is expected that the melamine market will be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs more attention to the start-up situation of enterprises.