Ethylene glycol prices fall from high levels

The situation in the Middle East has eased, with crude oil prices plummeting last week and ethylene glycol prices dropping sharply from high levels. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4413.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3% from the average price of 4550 yuan/ton on June 23rd.
In terms of imported ethylene glycol, on June 30, 2025, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port was weak and volatile, with a transaction range of 4330-4350 yuan/ton and a slightly weaker basis. It remained strong in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. The intraday basis range for next week’s spot contract is+62 to+68. As of the close of trading, the contract basis quotes for next week will be+62 to+64, the contract basis quotes for July will be+63 to+65, and the contract basis quotes for August will be+69 to+70.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4000-4120 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of June 26th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is $512/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is $543/ton.
In June, there was a significant destocking of port inventory, which is currently fluctuating at a relatively low level
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and from March to April, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. From May to June 2025, there will be a significant decrease in the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China. Currently, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port is relatively low. As of June 30th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port was 482000 tons, a decrease of 94700 tons from the total inventory of 576700 tons on May 29th, and a decrease of 218900 tons from the total inventory of 700900 tons on April 28th; Compared to the total inventory of 671900 tons on March 31st, it decreased by 189900 tons.
Fundamental Overview
After the easing of the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices fell, and the cost of ethylene glycol, which had previously risen, supported the withdrawal of the ladder. Overseas supplies such as Iran resumed production, and the expected reduction in import sources fell through. However, the short-term arrival volume is low, and the port inventory has significantly decreased.
Supply and demand fundamentals: Last weekend, a 400000 ton/year ethylene glycol enterprise in Shaanxi had a production line shut down for maintenance, which is expected to take about 20 days. At present, the overall supply and demand situation still presents a weak supply-demand pattern, with domestic maintenance and relatively low inventory on the supply side, which supports the price of ethylene glycol. However, due to the downward shift in downstream polyester production and strong expectations of production reduction, the price of ethylene glycol is suppressed.
Future expectations
The pricing of the ethylene glycol market has now returned to fundamental considerations. Due to the decrease in downstream operating rates, the demand for ethylene glycol is relatively weak. Although the current port inventory is low, there is an expectation of concentrated foreign ships arriving at the port in July, and the liquidity of spot goods in the market will be supplemented. It is expected that the short-term ethylene glycol price center will be weak and mainly operate.