1、 Price trend
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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4170 yuan/ton. In June, the DMF market saw a narrow upward trend with a slight increase in price. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 1.96%, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream demand is average, and the spot market supply is sufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of cost: Upstream methanol ports will replenish empty orders within the month, and short-term Taicang spot goods may remain relatively strong. Some domestic cargo continues to flow into the port for arbitrage, which has a certain impact on the port market. There is a high possibility of a decline in the port market, and there are serious differences in the mentality of mainland industry players. Currently, downstream is in the traditional off-season, but the operating rate remains high. There are news of maintenance in the methanol market in July, and the supply side may tighten. Some traders have the willingness to hold goods.
On the demand side: Currently, downstream demand for DMF is limited, with rigid procurement being the main focus. In July, some units underwent maintenance, which has a certain boosting effect on the market. Traders are cautious in their operations and have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
In terms of supply, the DMF market has a stable operating rate, sufficient spot supply, downstream on-demand procurement, average willingness to stock up, and slow warehouse shipments are the main factors. Currently, the supply and demand balance in the DMF market, and we will continue to monitor the pace of downstream procurement.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the downstream DMF market is currently at a low season level, with slow overall market shipments, balanced supply and demand, and sufficient spot supply. It is expected that the DMF market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.
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