This week (7.20-24), the domestic polysilicon market maintained the trend of last week, and the price still rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, polysilicon rose by 0.72% this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic price of primary polysilicon materials was in the range of 40000-45000 yuan / ton, mainly due to the tight market supply, especially in some areas, such as Xinjiang, affected by the epidemic, traffic restrictions leading to poor transportation, and the rising cost of polysilicon in large factories.

In late July, some domestic polysilicon manufacturers are still in the maintenance period, so the supply pressure is obviously relieved compared with the beginning of the month, and the supply in some markets is tight. According to statistics, as of July 24, there were 4 polysilicon manufacturers still in the maintenance period. The manufacturers had separate line maintenance or equipment maintenance, and the domestic and domestic supply pressure was not great. In addition, due to the recent epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the external transportation of large polysilicon factories in Xinjiang was blocked, and the cost increased. Overall, the supply of fundamentals is tight. So there has been a sustained rebound in prices. Moreover, the price of imported silicon materials has also increased, further impacting the domestic market. On the whole, the price of polysilicon has generally increased by 2000-4000 yuan / ton this month.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the general rigid demand still exists, which is warmer than that in June. With the gradual decrease of silicon material inventory of upstream and downstream manufacturers and the tightening of market supply, on the contrary, the demand for silicon wafers rises. The operating rate of monocrystalline silicon enterprises maintains full production, and the newly expanded capacity is released on schedule. The demand for monocrystalline silicon continues to rise, and the price demand of polycrystalline silicon also goes up, thus pushing up the price 。 However, from the point of view of terminal cells, whether the price of polycrystalline silicon can continue is also open to discussion. The price of polycrystalline cells has not been significantly increased, and the cost pressure is high. Now the price has approached the cash cost of manufacturers. Some manufacturers of polycrystalline cells have begun to have plans to overhaul and stop production. On the one hand, it comes from China, and more importantly, it is affected by the export caused by the epidemic.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the current price of polysilicon rebounded slightly, mainly due to the reduction of supply, and the cycle of polysilicon de stocking has basically come to an end. It is expected that there will still be enterprises in the maintenance period in August, with the impact of the epidemic situation in Xinjiang superimposed. It is expected that the supply pressure will still be tight in August. However, the market can continue to rebound is also more difficult. At present, the demand for polysilicon mainly comes from domestic rigid demand. External demand is still weak, and the overseas epidemic situation is still relatively severe. The export data of photovoltaic modules in June has not been released, and it is expected that there will not be much improvement compared with the data in May. The improvement of external demand still needs time. It is estimated that the polysilicon bottoms and stabilizes at present, and whether it can continue to rise in the future remains to be further observed.