Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the ex-factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream ex-factory quotation in Shandong fell from 7383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7316.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.90%, 21.91% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index at 53.80 on August 16.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

At present, the domestic octanol plant start-up rate is still acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng 80,000 tons/year octanol plant start-up normal, this week’s offer is firm; Jiangsu Huachang chemical octanol plant annual capacity 80,000 tons, no maintenance plan.

This week, the quotation of Shandong main octanol producers is temporarily stable: Hualu Hengsheng Octanol is 7450 yuan/ton this weekend, and the quotation is temporarily stable; Jianlan Chemical Octanol is 7400 yuan/ton this weekend, and the quotation is temporarily stable. Livayioctanol was quoted at 7,100 yuan per ton this weekend, down 200 yuan per ton compared with the beginning of the week.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: Propylene market rose this week. The quotation rose from 7607.69 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7740.77 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.75%, down 18.52% from the same period last year. Although the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen, it has fallen considerably year-on-year, which is affected by supply and demand, and has a negative impact on octanol price.

Downstream market: DOP ex-factory prices fell this week. DOP quotation fell from 7333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.91%, 22.63% compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers’enthusiasm for octanol purchasing declined, the demand for octanol was general, and the decline of DOP price had a negative impact on the octanol market. Future traders are more likely to watch the trend of DOP.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the overall trend of octanol Shandong market declined or shocked. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Although the price of propylene in the upstream has risen this week, the increase is not large and the cost support is insufficient. At the same time, the downstream market has also declined. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the products are declining under the contradiction between supply and demand. Octanol analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the octanol market shocks down, a small decline.