Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is stable. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, rising by 1.74% annually, and falling by 19.21% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market has been in a standstill. Earlier this week, the market started at a low level, factories took the opportunity to boost the market, strictly control the price of shipments, traders passively followed up the increase in quotations, low-price supply decreased, spot market just needed small orders to deliver high-end. Later, due to the reboot device loading, the market supply gradually increased, and the downstream market is still weak, replenishing warehouses on demand is the main, high prices conflict, once again push up difficulties, supply and demand negotiations stalemate. Up to now, the mainstream price in the East China market is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low end. The domestic BDO market started at 52% this week, with a weekly output of about 21647 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, stopped for safety investigation on July 19 due to the explosion of Yima, and tentatively planned to restart at the end of August; 25,000 tons/year plant in Tianhua, Sichuan, and 60,000 tons/year plant in Tianhua, Sichuan, will replace catalysts in turn from August 12, with an estimated 10 days; and 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the first phase. Normal operation, other devices have not yet restarted; Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia stopped for maintenance on August 13, and is expected to be around 25 days. The 100,000-ton/year plant in Bidiou, Shaanxi, was replaced on August 9 and restarted on August 13.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.16), the BDO market in East China has been running steadily. At present, although there are factory maintenance, but the market supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, the actual single talk is cold, the factory price mentality, the center of gravity is stable. The BDO market in South China is deadlocked. The market is full of goods, the digestion of downstream contracts is slow, and the negotiation of spot orders is weak. Under the supply-demand game, the supplier’s price-keeping mentality supports the temporary stability of the market focus.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, this week the domestic calcium carbide market overall downward trend is dominant, production enterprises shipped actively, some enterprises inventory pressure, in order to speed up the delivery rate, various enterprises trade prices issued different preferential policies, so the market continues to have low-price supply. Transport continues to bear pressure, road security has been strengthened, carbide logistics transport cautious, fruit and vegetable transport increased resulting in vehicle tension. The downstream procurement is affected by weather and security inspection, and the regional arrival of goods is uneven. The Shandong area is affected by typhoon, road transportation is hindered, and downstream PVC enterprises start construction this week, the load has been reduced. At present, with the improvement of the weather, construction started gradually, but the pressure of road transportation continued.

Methanol: The market of methanol has risen this week. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is from 1700 to 1800 yuan/ton. The shipment situation of manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is smooth this week. Most manufacturers stop selling. Traders maintain a positive attitude towards the recent market. The mainstream price of Guanzhong area this week is from 1950 yuan/ton to 2000 yuan/ton. Because many local manufacturers are still not repairing, the remaining manufacturers are still holding up prices. Driven by the market in Inner Mongolia in the first half of this week, the Guanzhong market improved, but in the second half of this week, the market began to decline as the futures fell and the manufacturers for repairing recovered. Traders have different views on the market next week.

On the downstream side, PBT: Kaixiang, Henan, stopped on May 30 without a restart plan; Xingxing, Nantong, stopped on July 10 for overhaul and planned to restart this weekend; Tunhe plant stopped on August 9 for about a month; Kanghui Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operated on two lines, with a load of about 60%; Xingsheng, Wuxi, with a load of about 60%. PTMEG: Start-up load of Jiaxing Xiaoxing is about 60%; start-up load of other devices is about 7-8%.

3. Future Market Forecast

This week, there are more overhaul factories, which boosts the confidence of the manufacturers and makes the profit intention weak. However, the PBT downstream of the main power plant has a device to stop, the start-up load has dropped again, the demand is difficult to increase; the spot market also has no backup atmosphere, just need a small single replenishment warehouse, the focus of the real single negotiation is in the middle. The replacement catalyst of Shaanxi Chemical Company has been restarted, and Tianhua will drive next week. The market start-up rate will increase accordingly, and the imbalance between supply and demand will appear. Business agency BDO analysts expect the domestic BDO market to continue its weak steady state next week, focusing specifically on changes in market supply and demand.