According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 21st to 25th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2409 yuan/ton to around 2500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.77% during the period, a month on month decrease of 5.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%. The strong methanol market along the coast is mainly boosted by macro policies, but the increase is limited due to weak traditional downstream demand. Macro favorable conditions continue to ferment, coupled with low inventory levels in production areas and the continued demand for external procurement of olefins due to the decoration of some facilities, leading to a sustained strengthening of the domestic methanol market prices.

As of the close on July 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2479 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2525 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2475 yuan/ton. It closed at 2519 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 2.19%. The trading volume is 991786 lots, the position is 663505, and the daily increase in position is 31318.
On the cost side, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in the coal market will be alleviated, inventory consumption will accelerate, and cost support will be strengthened. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid is mostly stable. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is fluctuating. The rise in raw material methanol has led to increased costs, and some factories have raised prices under cost pressure. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is stable with some growth. The price of raw material methanol has risen, and the sentiment of dimethyl ether in Hebei and Shandong is strong. Most downstream products have been affected by the rise in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on July 24th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $332.50-333.50 per ton, up $3 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 95.00-96.00 cents/gallon, up 3 cents/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 235.50-236.50 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
In future market forecasting, attention should be paid to the acceptance of high priced goods by traditional downstream companies, as well as the impact of some maintenance enterprises resuming production on the market. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will strengthen and consolidate.