In November, domestic liquid ammonia prices rose significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the monthly increase in liquid ammonia prices in Shandong region was 12.93%. The main reason is that, against the backdrop of stable downstream demand, many facilities have undergone maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and tight supply performance. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2450-2650 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, in the first half of the year, due to the impact of environmental inspections on some products in the north, the production output of manufacturers decreased, and combined with temporary troubleshooting of some devices, the supply of ammonia in the north decreased. The supply pressure in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the two lakes regions is not high, and the price increase is significant. The main reason for the repeated increase in enterprise quotations. In the middle of the month, the market entered a period of volatile adjustment, and with the end of environmental inspections, prices slightly fell back. In the latter half of the year, the market returned to the fundamental supply-demand balance, and the market partially stabilized. Prices in Shandong region slightly rebounded, but the increase was not significant.
From the demand side, downstream demand has significantly improved, agricultural demand has improved, and export volume has increased. Among them, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the demand for urea has increased significantly. Urea has fluctuated and risen throughout November, with a growth rate of 3.5%; In addition, the domestic industry urgently needs to follow up, and coupled with the decrease in inventory caused by the early consumption of ammonia plants, manufacturers have shown a clear willingness to raise prices, which has supported ammonia prices.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the rise of liquid ammonia this month is mainly driven by favorable conditions on the supply side. Although there has been improvement on the demand side, the increase is not significant. It is expected to enter December, and the resumption of maintenance equipment in the north is expected. Supply may be tight or improve, which will to some extent dilute the positive news of the increase in compound fertilizer production. Overall, it is expected that the high price of liquid ammonia will cool down and the price will return to the range of fluctuations.