Analysis: This week (7.14-18), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices continuing the downward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.58%. The main reason is the increasing supply pressure and the surplus of market inventory. The maintenance equipment is partially running, and the supply side is showing loose performance. In addition, many manufacturers have increased the amount of ammonia conversion, and the accumulation of liquid ammonia continues to put pressure on the manufacturers. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, the prices of manufacturers gradually loosened. As the weekend approached, the prices of manufacturers gradually stabilized. As of Friday, mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 50 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2300-2400 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizers for liquid ammonia will decrease, which will lower the demand for liquid ammonia. Agricultural demand and industrial demand are mainly followed up, with sufficient supply, but the mid-term supply pressure may be partially alleviated. On the one hand, in the main production areas of the north, as prices hover at low levels or supply is tightened, there is an increase in enterprise inspections and price hikes, and it is not ruled out that manufacturers will reduce production and adjust supply. From the demand side, downstream procurement may continue to be sluggish, maintaining reasonable procurement demand. There is not much room for order growth in the later stage, and industrial demand urgently needs to be followed up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may still perform weakly next week, with prices mainly hovering at low levels.