In October, acetone showed an overall trend of oscillation, bottoming out, and rebounding. After rising in September, there was a clear game of long and short in the October market, with prices first suppressing and then rising, maintaining a high-level operating pattern as a whole.
Entering early October, acetone prices continued to decline from their high in September. The tight supply dividend brought about by the centralized maintenance of the phenol ketone plant in the early stage is gradually diminishing. Downstream industries such as bisphenol A and MMA are becoming cautious in purchasing high priced raw materials, with insufficient willingness to chase after high prices. They mainly focus on replenishment for urgent needs, and the market transaction atmosphere has weakened. The price of acetone in East China continues to decline, reaching a low point of this month in the mid month stage, with a minimum of around 8100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
In mid to late October, the market experienced a reversal. On the one hand, the maintenance of some phenol ketone units continues, and the increase in domestic spot circulation supply is lower than expected. Port inventory continues to deplete, and the tight balance pattern of spot goods is once again evident. The mentality of holders of goods to support prices has rebounded; On the other hand, the prices of pure benzene and propylene in the upstream remain strong, forming strong support on the cost side. Coupled with mainstream factories such as Sinopec and Sinopec gradually raising their ex factory listing prices, this has driven the spot market to rise. Downstream factories are replenishing their positions at a low level, and transactions are gradually recovering. Prices have fluctuated and rebounded from the low point, rising above 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month and returning to the high range. However, it should be noted that during this round of rebound, downstream companies’ profits have been under pressure, and large-scale stocking has not occurred. The sustainability of the demand side still has shortcomings, and the upward trend is relatively mild.
Taking into account factors such as supply and demand, costs, etc., it is predicted that the acetone market may maintain a high volatility trend in the short term, with a narrowing range of fluctuations. The positive factor is that some equipment maintenance has not yet been completed, making it difficult to quickly increase short-term supply. The prices of crude oil and pure benzene on the cost side are still supported, and manufacturers have little inventory pressure, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices. But negative pressure also exists: as the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the domestic supply will steadily increase in the later stage, and at the same time, imported cargo will be concentrated at the port, and the supply of goods is expected to be loose; The downstream bisphenol A and MMA industries have limited room for improvement in production, and their ability to undertake at high prices is weak, making it difficult to sustain price increases.
It is difficult to replicate the sharp rise in September for acetone in November, and it is likely to fluctuate within the range of 8400-9200 yuan/ton. If the raw material pure benzene weakens in the later stage and the production of equipment is concentrated, there is a possibility of a slight decline in the market center of gravity, and the market will shift from a strong upward trend to a fluctuating pattern of supply and demand game. It is recommended to purchase according to demand and cautiously chase after the rise in operation.