The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

The price of ethylene glycol loosened in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the average price of 4485 yuan/ton on September 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of the spot contract for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) will operate smoothly on September 30, 2025. The transaction range of the basis within the contract days before October 10 is+64 to+67, with mainstream major traders sporadically accepting spot goods. As of the close of trading, the contract basis price is+68 to+69 before September 30th, and+68 to+71 below October.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3930-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of September 29th, recent ship cargo negotiations have resulted in transactions around $506 per ton.
The main reasons for the downward shift in ethylene glycol prices in September are:
Supply increase
In September, there were significant changes in the domestic supply of ethylene glycol, which had a significant impact on its price. In July and August, multiple units underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, resulting in supply contraction and port inventory depletion, providing significant support for the price of ethylene glycol. But as we entered September, the domestic comprehensive construction rate showed a significant rebound. The pressure of increasing supply is becoming more prominent. In the third quarter, the operating rates of various process routes for ethylene glycol fully recovered, and the operating load of coal to ethylene glycol increased significantly from 58.95% in July to 66.60% in September. The operating rate of petroleum to ethylene glycol also rebounded from 64.11% in July to 74.62% in September, and the comprehensive operating rate in September has exceeded 71%. The domestic ethylene glycol supply side has entered a steady growth channel, and the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has weakened the factors that previously supported prices and suppressed the ethylene glycol price in September.
Downstream high operating terminal demand is weak

The demand side of ethylene glycol shows a characteristic of high production but continuous weak demand, which has constrained the price of ethylene glycol in September. The downstream polyester industry has maintained a high load of over 87%, and the support of essential needs should have boosted prices. Among them, the quarterly average of polyester filament production reached a high of 91.33%, with slight fluctuations, which strongly supported the overall production level; The quarterly operating rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 3.12% to 87.42% month on month, mainly due to the increase in enterprise load and the commissioning of new facilities. However, the continuous weak growth of orders in the terminal weaving field has led to a low willingness of polyester factories and traders to replenish inventory, limited market trading activity, and difficulty in forming an effective driving force to push up ethylene glycol prices. At the same time, the operating rate of bottle grade PET has experienced the most significant decline, with a quarterly average of only 72.45%, a significant decrease of 9.38% compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to the long-term maintenance or conversion of some units; The operating rate of fiber grade PET also slightly decreased compared to the previous period. The quarterly average operating rate of the domestic polyester industry is 86.98%. Although it has slightly decreased by 4.09 percentage points compared to the second quarter, there is some seasonal slowdown pressure, but the monthly operating rate has remained stable within a narrow range of 86.5% to 87.3%. Overall, the weak performance on the demand side resulted in a lack of strong upward momentum for ethylene glycol prices in September.
The probability of ethylene glycol prices starting weak and then strong in October is high
The overall inventory of ethylene glycol ports is still relatively low, and there is currently little pressure on spot supply. The recent price decline is mainly due to considerations of pre holiday warehousing costs, weak willingness of traders to hold goods, weak medium – and long-term expectations, and weak downstream terminal hoarding willingness. During the National Day holiday, large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia arrived in Hong Kong. The total planned arrival volume of ethylene glycol at East China ports next week is 228000 tons, which is relatively high. The expectation of a rebound in port inventory has to some extent suppressed the price of ethylene glycol in mid to early October. After weak expectations and early pricing, ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and recover. There is a high probability that the price of ethylene glycol will first weaken and then strengthen in October.