According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market fluctuated and rose in April, with prices of various wire drawing brands increasing narrowly. As of April 30th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7842.86 yuan/ton, up or down by 1.01% from the price level on April 1st.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In terms of PP raw materials, due to the influence of geographical tensions in the first half of this month, crude oil prices were adjusted after rising. Mid month demand for propylene rebounded, while at the end of the month, the cost side followed suit with a narrow range of fluctuations overall. Due to the boost from the external market, domestic propane achieved a mid month stop from falling and an increase. Methanol supply and demand are relatively balanced, and stocking demand is driving up the market in the second half of the month. Overall, the cost support for PP in April is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average load this month is around 74%, which is comparable to the level at the end of March. During the month, production lines of companies such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo underwent maintenance. However, some companies continued to undergo maintenance, leading to a decrease in market supply. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually being digested, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises has remained stable with a slight increase, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding at the end of the month are about 44%, 65%, and 58%, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is not strong throughout the month.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has risen within a narrow range. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7725 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 1.31% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 0.32% compared to the same period last year. The main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material experienced a 1% decrease in load during the month, and the operating rate at the end of the month was around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and it is expected that the future market of fiber materials may be constrained by weak demand and consolidation operations.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this month. As of April 30th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8037.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.31%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.58%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the temperature will heat up in May, and the digestion of terminal products will slow down. Melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the overall polypropylene market fluctuated slightly in April. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. There has been a contraction in the supply of goods, but there is still an expectation of tightening in the future, and the supply pressure has partially eased. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and the stocking needs to maintain production. The pre holiday stocking volume on site is not significant. It is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in the short term.