Domestic price trend of paraxylene:
From the p-xylene trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic p-xylene factory price was 8500 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.60%.
The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is around 70%. The external dependence of PX products is around 29%, and the recent external price trend of PX has increased. As of the 23rd, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 1059-1061 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1084-1086 dollars/ton CFR China. The external price rise is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been normal. Overall, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is around 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.
The price trend of crude oil this week has increased slightly. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $69.96/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $75.50/barrel. Recently, the demand for crude oil in China and Asia continues to recover, coupled with the easing of the pressure of the banking crisis, and the low rebound in the oil market. The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25bp, which meets market expectations and indicates that the pace of interest rate hikes will be suspended. The decline of the US dollar has supported the rise of oil prices, while crude oil prices have slightly warmed up, and the price trend in the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.
The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week, with the average PTA market price at 6050-6100 yuan/ton as of the 24th, and the price increase for this week was 4.06%. In terms of PTA supply, the PTA device load slightly increased to over 76%, with supply increasing slightly. However, in March, the supply was mostly concentrated in the hands of a few traders, and some traders closed their orders. The downstream polyester maintenance stage is on the high side, but production and sales are poor, and the demand for PTA is weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been lowered to below 70%. In addition, foreign trade orders are still not improving, the factory feedback is insufficient for new orders, and the textile factory terminal foreign trade orders are shrinking. Overall, the downstream market is slowly recovering, and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.
Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits. However, the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. Although the terminal downstream market is still facing insufficient demand and uncertain foreign trade prospects, there are expectations of overhaul of some paraxylene units in the near future, and supply will decline at that time. In addition to the rising price trend in the PTA market, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene may rise in the future.