It can be seen from the above figure that the price of domestic mainstream urea market fell in shock this month: the price of urea fell from 2555.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.92%. A year-on-year drop of 18.64%.

On October 30, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In October, the price of urea fell slightly, with the highest weekly drop of 2.15%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic urea mainstream market rose and fell each other this month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the urea upstream products fell sharply this month as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, from 68342.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5540.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 18.93%, 24.04% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing fast) fell slightly, from 1850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1780.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up by 70 yuan/ton. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.40%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea rose slightly in the future

The urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of November. The upstream anthracite and natural gas prices were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is followed up appropriately, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. In the future, urea may rise slightly.