1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell by a wide margin this month. On July 1, the price was 9250-9550 yuan / ton (the average price was 9509 yuan / ton); On July 28, the price was 8750-9150 yuan / ton (the average price was 9026 yuan / ton), a decrease of 5.08% this month, an increase of 9.93% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the large number of downstream units put into production in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene was tight, domestic trade shipments decreased, the high-level imports of superimposed outer disks decreased, and the ports maintained a de stocking state in the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure.
This month, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 450 yuan / ton to 9150 yuan / ton (from Hebei and Shandong to 8750 yuan / ton).
In terms of crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained, but the Federal Reserve and many central banks increased interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%.
In the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded slightly after a wide decline in the external market this month. On July 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1085 / ton, down $183 / ton, or 14.43%; Pure benzene imported from East China was $1099 / ton, down $168 / ton, or 13.26%.
Downstream, styrene: styrene fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 10526 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 9657 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.28% this month, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year.
Aniline: in the first half of the month, aniline was relatively strong, but the price fell in the second half of the month due to the weakening cost and poor downstream demand. At the beginning of the month, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; At the end of the month, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell by 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.02% compared with the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the macro side is still affected by the economy. The interest rate hikes of central banks in many countries bring downward risks to the economy, and the outlook for global commodities is also affected by it; However, the logic of medium and short-term supply and demand fundamentals has not changed, the expectation of supply tightening has not been lifted, and the trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
In the short term, the pure benzene port is still in the state of de stocking, but the market expects that the tight supply of pure benzene in August may be relieved, and the import volume of pure benzene will increase in the later period, so pure benzene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.