1、 Price data
According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8353.33 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 8388.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha fell.
According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8147.50 yuan / ton, down 1.72% from 8290.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of ground refined straight run naphtha fell as a whole.
On June 30, the naphtha commodity index was 103.10, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 15.24% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 144.08% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: in June, the price of ground refined naphtha increased first and then decreased. At present, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8100-8300 yuan / ton. In June, the international crude oil fell in shock, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of June 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 580000 barrels to a two-week low of 20.768 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory increased by 17000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 15.229 million barrels; Intermediate distillate stocks fell by 680000 barrels to a three week low of 7.93 million barrels.
Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated in June. In early June, the oil ban imposed by the European Union on Russia was delayed, and the supply was tight, and the expectation remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices, and crude oil prices rise. In late June, the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was tightly supported. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. At the end of June, crude oil futures closed up for three consecutive days, hitting a two-week high, as the market questioned the ability of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production significantly, as well as the supply concerns caused by the turmoil in Ecuador and Libya.
Downstream: the price of toluene rose rapidly in the first ten days of June, hitting a new high in the year. It began to decline weakly in the middle of the year and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 8090 yuan / ton on June 1 and 8860 yuan / ton on June 28, up 9.52% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of June, mixed xylene soared, and the price quickly climbed to the highest level of the year. The trend began to turn around and fall in the middle of the month. On June 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan / ton, and on June 28, the price was 8390 yuan / ton, up 2.57% from the beginning of the month. In June, the price trend of paraxylene rose first and then declined. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10000 yuan / ton, down 1.96% from the price of 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
According to the energy analysts of business agency, in June, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the naphtha cost support was limited. At present, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the finished oil was weak downward. The naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the market trading was cautious, and the refineries cut prices and shipped goods. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.