Annual market trend of DOP in 21 years

 

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price in 2021 was adjusted by a wide range of fluctuations, and the DOP price hit a record high of 15725 yuan / ton in the cycle on August 4, 2021 (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The maximum price difference between the highest price (August 4) and the lowest price (January 20, 9400 yuan / ton) in 21 years is as high as 6300 yuan / ton, and the vibration frequency and amplitude are higher than those in previous years, with the maximum amplitude of 67.73%. The highest price and annual price difference of DOP in 21 years reached a new high, and the annual market of dop2021 was turbulent.

 

EDTA

The trend of DOP is significantly affected by demand, cost, supply and policy. Therefore, the annual trend of DOP is divided into the following stages:

 

Demand support stage

 

Before the Spring Festival, the market demand was insufficient in the off-season, and the DOP price was low. On January 21, the DOP price was the lowest in 21 years.

 

After the festival, the cold wave in the United States led to more shutdown of chemical plants, a significant reduction in the output of chemical products, the transfer of foreign demand to China, strong demand support, and the price of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride soared. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the rise in DOP prices. At the same time, the stability of downstream demand drives the rise in DOP prices. The rise in DOP also provides support for the rise of isooctanol, and the upstream and downstream strongly support each other.

 
After the cold wave ended in March, American chemical plants started one after another, the supply of chemicals basically recovered, and the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell, dragging down the price of DOP. When the vaccine was put on the market, the demand for disposable PVC gloves declined and orders decreased; At the same time, due to the high price of DOP, the cost of downstream wire and cable, PVC film and other industries increases, and the start-up of downstream enterprises decreases. The downstream demand is insufficient, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers is high, the supply of plasticizer Market exceeds demand, and the price of DOP is under pressure.

 

Commencement restriction stage

 

Since mid April, DOP prices have rebounded from shock. In the overhaul of isooctanol units of Qilu Petrochemical, lihuayi and other enterprises, the price of isooctanol rose sharply, driving the price rise of plasticizer. However, the terminal demand was relatively stable, and the room for the rise of plasticizer was limited. The price of plasticizer fluctuated slightly in the off-season of the market in May and June. 7. Under the pressure of environmental protection in August, the start-up of enterprises decreased significantly, the market speculation atmosphere rose sharply, and the DOP price soared all the way, reaching a record high on August 4.

 

Downward phase of cost pressure

 

From August to the end of the year, the price of isooctanol was high, DOP cost pressure was huge, downstream customers had poor acceptance of high price DOP, and DOP price fluctuated and fell; In October, DOP prices rose briefly and then fell rapidly, and then continued to decline. This year’s golden nine silver ten peak season is not prosperous, and the downstream demand is low. In November of previous years, the export performance of downstream plastic products is strong. However, affected by the epidemic this year, there is no obvious Christmas stock in Europe and America, which has aroused the market’s concern about the prospect of DOP demand, and the DOP price has been falling all the way; In December, affected by environmental protection, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers in Hebei was low, but the overall DOP operation was relatively stable, the overall market demand was relatively low, the downstream customers just needed it, the stock was replenished at a low price, and the DOP price fluctuated downward.

 

When will the downward trend stop?

 

Melamine

The troika affecting the price trend of DOP in 21 years is supply, demand and cost. Supply and demand is the basic driving force for the rise and fall of DOP products. Cost factors determine the profit space and fluctuation range of DOP. Since the second quarter, the rise of DOP industrial chain is mostly driven by isooctanol, while downstream customers follow. Demand growth and insufficient supply are the main reasons for the sharp rise of DOP in 21 years. Correspondingly, the high price of DOP leads to low enthusiasm for procurement in the downstream, more rigid procurement and low demand, which exacerbates the downward trend of DOP.

 

21 years is over. Let’s look forward to the market in 22 years. In the future, it is difficult to sustain the market in 21 years, and plasticizers return to rationality in 22 years.

 

Throughout the year, energy consumption is under dual control, environmental protection is normalized, enterprise operation is relatively stable, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain tends to be relatively stable in 22 years, and the price amplitude is bound to narrow. The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises basically meets the demand, but it is relatively scarce, and the concentration of production capacity is high. The leading enterprises have a big say in pricing, and the price of isooctanol has been relatively strong in 22 years. With the support of cost, the decline of plasticizer price is limited, and the DOP price in 22 years is fluctuated and adjusted at about 9500 yuan / ton.

 

In the short term, the new year is approaching, plasticizer manufacturers have a strong willingness to clear the warehouse, manufacturers actively ship, and plasticizers may be sold at reduced prices; In terms of supply and demand, January 22 was still the off-season in the market, but in late January, customers prepared goods in advance during the Spring Festival holiday, and the parking practice of DOP units during the Spring Festival had a certain positive support for the market demand. During the Winter Olympic Games, it may affect the production of some DOP chemical plants in Hebei and other places, and the expected supply of DOP decreased, which supported the rise of DOP; In terms of cost, DOP in 22 years is still greatly affected by the price fluctuation of isooctanol. In December, the price of isooctanol has approached the lowest price in 21 years, the profit of isooctanol has been reduced to the lowest level in the year, and the manufacturers of isooctanol are willing to support the price in the future. Overall, DOP prices are expected to fall slightly before the festival. After the festival, the plasticizer market may usher in a small rise.

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