According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of polyester filament is pessimistic, and the price of domestic polyester filament falls continuously this month. At present, polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F and polyester fdy150d / 96F are reported to be 4850-5000 yuan / ton, 6550-7300 yuan / ton and 5100-5450 yuan / ton respectively. The decline of polyester filament products continues to expand, especially the decline of FDY and POY is close to 30%, and the profit has also fallen into the dilemma of loss.

Average market price of polyester filament in March, unit: yuan / ton

Product: March 1, 2020 March 31, 2020 up and down year on year

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 6884 4894 – 28.62% – 45.65%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 7465 5270 – 29.4% – 45.06%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 8718 7018 – 19.5% – 33.43%

The international crude oil price has bottomed out again, and the domestic PTA spot market price has continued to plummet, with a record low. As of March 30, the average spot market price was 3188 yuan / ton, down 24.89 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 52.11% year on year. In terms of the plant, the current PTA starting load is about 76%, down 6% from the beginning of the month. In the middle of March, some PTA plants will be overhauled in a centralized manner for about two weeks. From the end of March to the beginning of April, the maintenance of the plant will be completed, and the load is expected to be greatly increased. At the same time, the demand is blocked, and the current PTA social inventory is still higher than 3 million tons. It is estimated that the PTA inventory rate will reach a new high in April.

Recent domestic PTA plant changes

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Huabin Petrochemical 140 entered maintenance on January 27, and it is planned to restart at the end of the month

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. entered into maintenance on February 3, and planned to restart at the end of the month

Dushan energy 220 will be shut down for maintenance on March 15, with a planned maintenance period of 2 weeks

Pengwei Petrochemical reduced its load to 70% on February 10, recovered to 90%, and stopped at night on March 9

Hengli Dalian 220 has been shut down for maintenance since March 12, and is in the process of heating up and restarting

Fuhaichuang 450 stopped for maintenance on March 12, and planned to restart at the end of the month

Zhuhai BP 125 was shut down for maintenance on March 15 and heated up near March 28

Jialong Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on August 2, 60, and the restart time is to be determined

The demand in the downstream textile end market is worrying. There are few orders received by domestic factories after the year. There are still worries. The enthusiasm for purchasing is weak. The production and sales of manufacturers are difficult to be leveled, and the inventory keeps rising. At present, the stock of grey fabric of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang area has risen to 40-41 days, and it is difficult for some manufacturers to go to the stock. In terms of export, according to the statistics of the customs, from January to February 2020, China’s export of textile yarn, fabrics and products reached 13.772.5 billion US dollars, down 19.9% year on year, and the export of clothing and accessories reached 16.062.3 billion US dollars, down 20.0% year on year. At present, some foreign trade orders have been cancelled, stopped shipping and other phenomena have increased gradually, and the situation of price reduction has occurred frequently, and the profit space has shrunk significantly. Due to the rising stock and capital pressure of textile enterprises, the comprehensive start-up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to around 61%. It is expected that the enthusiasm for start-up will decline in the second quarter, and the loom start-up rate may continue to decline.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the upstream crude oil fell sharply, PTA supply and demand were unbalanced, and the cost continued to collapse. The downstream weaving market has been scarred, the inventory has been rising, and the order reduction inventory has increased. Many weaving enterprises decided to implement the operation of holiday and production reduction in the peak season of the “golden three silver four”, and the market entered the off-season ahead of time. Polyester filament price center of gravity all the way down, the factory continues to promote preferential sales, it is expected that April will continue to weaken more likely.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on March 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

In 2019, the price fluctuation is not big and the market will not rise or fall. After the Spring Festival in 2020, the downstream demand is weak, and the current price is stable and volatile.

2、 Market analysis

Industrial chain:

From the perspective of raw materials, from the middle of October last year, the coal tar market showed a downward trend, and the price reached a low point within the year. There was a slight increase at the end of November, but not a big increase. As of the end of November, the price is still lower than the end of last month. In the later stage, although the coal tar market is in short supply at this stage, it is expected that the price increase of coal tar in December will be limited and the market price of carbon black will not be adequately supported due to the fact that the downstream carbon black and coal asphalt are difficult to change the weak situation.

From the point of view of demand, in December last year, the start-up of tires was mainly stable. Up to now, the start-up rate of tire factories has dropped to about 50%, new orders are limited, and the demand for carbon black is still weak.

3、 Future forecast

According to the carbon black data division of the chemical branch of business society, the carbon black downturn has not fundamentally improved.

1、 Price trend

The antimony commodity index on March 29 was 53.07, unchanged from yesterday, 48.13% lower than the highest point in the cycle 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 12.96% higher than the lowest point 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony oxide fell on Wednesday. As of Friday, 99.5% was 34500 yuan / ton, 99.8% was 36000 yuan / ton, 1000-2000 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Domestic market: this week’s antimony ingot market continued to decline. Affected by international events, the export of antimony products has been dragged down. Domestic demand has been suspended. Major domestic manufacturers have plans to reduce production. Under the double influence of demand and export, the price of antimony products has declined. As of Friday, the price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots was 36500 yuan / ton, 1 × high bismuth antimony ingots was 37000 yuan / ton, 0 × high bismuth antimony ingots was 38000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots was 34000 yuan / ton Down 1500-2000 yuan / ton.

Industry: this week, the basic metals are in a state of recovery and stabilization. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve announced unlimited quantitative easing policy, and the major central banks around the world have followed the policy of continuous interest rate reduction and easing. After the G20 meeting, the stimulus policy of introducing more than 5 trillion US dollars into the world was announced. The market gained confidence and left the market short in the week, which made the basic metals recovery.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 8 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are silver (15.02%), gold (7.72%) and copper (6.48%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are antimony (- 4.98%), silicon metal (- 3.51%) and titanium concentrate (- 3.17%). This week’s average was 0.82%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will enter April, the domestic situation has been further controlled, local governments and central banks continue to offer various stimulus policies to help enterprises to start a good recovery of life and production order, the market is expected to warm up consumption in April, but the overseas market is still relatively serious, the market risk is dependent, the domestic resistance is still stronger than the external market, and the ratio of some products will continue to be repaired.

1、 Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite market in China fell slightly this week. The weekend price was 3355.56 yuan / ton, 1.31% lower than the price of 3400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 13.57% higher than the same period last year. Recently, the price of fluorite fell slightly.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price trend of fluorite in China fell this week. As of the 27th day, the average price of fluorite in China was 3355.56 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China has increased. The on-site mine and flotation plant have been resumed gradually, and the supply of fluorite in the field has increased. Due to the increase of on-site supply, the price of fluorite has fallen slightly. In addition, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. For the on-demand purchase of fluorite market, fluorite Generally speaking, the price trend of fluorite market fell. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in a low market price. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3000-3200 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3100-3300 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3200-3400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid is 11500 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid this week is flat, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is stable, and the price of fluorite is slightly lower. In the near future, the trading trend of downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is stable. At present, the automobile industry starts normally, the domestic R22 supply is stable, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer starts gradually, and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 16500-18500 yuan / ton water Ping. The price trend of R134a market in China is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream construction is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, and the price remains stable, while the downstream purchase is still on demand. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable, and the downstream market trend is stable, but the supply of fluorite increases, and the price of fluorite market drops due to the increase of supply.

Industry: this week, the unit operating rate of fluorite industry increased slightly, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated, the spot supply of products in fluorite market was sufficient, and the price trend of fluorite market fell.

3、 Future forecast

On the whole, the market trend of downstream refrigerant industry is stable temporarily, the supply of fluorite is increasing, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is declining in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 19, the average price of n-butanol was 4867 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with the previous day (5003 yuan / ton on March 18), the current reference average price fell by 136 yuan / ton, or 2.7%. Compared with a week ago (reference price 5283 yuan / ton on March 12), it dropped 416 yuan / ton, or 7.89%; compared with the beginning of this month (reference price 5467 yuan / ton on March 1), it dropped 600 yuan / ton, or 10.98%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: since January 2020, the market of n-butanol has been sluggish, falling all the way from a high of 6000 yuan / ton in January. The current average ex factory reference price in the market has fallen below the 5000 yuan / ton mark, and the drop has broken 1000 yuan / ton compared with January. This week, the domestic n-butanol market was in a weak position, with a low focus and a general market turnover. It was heard that the purchase price of downstream real orders was slightly lower. Raw material users are mainly digesting inventory. Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the mentality of the industry is frustrated. The downstream purchasing of raw materials is further slowed down. They are mainly waiting and careful replenishment. On September 19, affected by the further decline of upstream raw material propylene, the cost of n-butanol was under heavy pressure and the price dropped significantly. At present, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in South China is around 5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 200 yuan / ton, with a drop of 300 yuan / ton compared with last week. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd With reference to 5000 yuan / ton, the weekly price drop is 100 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week; with reference to 4600 yuan / ton, the weekly price drop is 200 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industrial chain: on March 18, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong began to decline. On the first day, the price of some enterprises picked up slightly. On the second day, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the third day and the fourth day, the price of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the tenth day, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the price slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the twelfth day, the price of some enterprises rose slightly There was a slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. On the 16th, the price was stable, and on the 17th and 18th, the price dropped continuously. At present, the market turnover is 5750-6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5750-5800 yuan / ton. Influenced by OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, international crude oil rose and fell sharply; prices fell again on the 16th and slightly on the 17th. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later stage is also obvious. It is expected that the price of propylene in the later stage will be affected by crude oil, or there will be a short-term stable market.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of n-butanol of business club, affected by the cost of n-butanol, it is expected that the decline of n-butanol market will be suspended in recent days, and the specific market needs to pay more attention to the trend of upstream raw materials and the relationship between downstream supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 1793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1780.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.74%, 8.95% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 82.79 on March 20.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong fell slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1760 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this week is 1830 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the current domestic market is mainly volatile. Lower agricultural demand, lower industrial procurement cautious. In terms of supply: at present, the start-up of urea enterprises continues to rise, and the overall supply has risen, while the logistics and transportation are normal, and the inventory pressure has eased, but the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers is relatively low. The short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

Industry chain: the upstream products in the whole look down this week: the price of natural gas is slightly down, with the price down 0.63% from 3193.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3173.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 20.00% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is slightly down this week, with the price down 0.51% from 3266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.22% compared with the same period last year, Overall, urea cost support this week was weak. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 5500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.21%. The general purchasing capacity in the downstream had a negative impact on the price of urea. In the aspect of the downstream rubber plate plant, the enthusiasm for urea procurement is also weak.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly volatile. Urea analysts of business association think that at present, agricultural demand is weak, and the downstream industry is less active in urea procurement. At present, the domestic market is not relatively good, and the short-term urea market is expected to decline slightly.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week the domestic bromine market is still in a weak and stable operation, and the average price of bromine remains around 30000 yuan / ton, down 14.29% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the domestic bromine market has not recovered this week. The spot supply in the market is tight, the inventory of enterprises is exhausted, the demand in the downstream market is poor, the inquiry of traders is weak, and the overall supply and demand in the industry are weak. At present, the quotation of mainstream Enterprises is about 29000-30000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream market of bromine in China is up and down in different ways this week, including sulfur rising by 1.03%, at present about 653 yuan / ton; sulfuric acid running steadily within the week, at present 323 yuan / ton left; caustic soda falling by 3.93%, at present about 550 yuan / ton; soda ash running steadily, about 1583 yuan / ton before the year. The market performance of the main downstream flame retardants of bromine is relatively light. In the recovery of pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries, the overall rigid demand is weak, the supply and demand are weak, and the support for bromine price is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, the supply and demand of bromine market in China are weak at present. With the gradual recovery of downstream market, the supply of market goods will be difficult. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable operation in the short term, and the price will gradually rise in the later period.

1、 Price trend

In the second week of March, the market trend of PA66 in China was weak and the price was adjusted downward, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of Friday, March 13, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 22250.00 yuan / ton, 1.11% lower than the price level at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 is still weak in the near future. Compared with that at the beginning of the month, the price of dealers continues to decline. At present, the dealers are gradually entering the market, but they have not reached the status of years ago. The transportation situation in the market has improved significantly, but the delivery situation is not ideal due to the weak downstream demand, and the inventory is difficult to digest. There are still places where the resumption time is delayed. At present, the manufacturer’s operating rate remains stable, slightly higher than last week. Therefore, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure has an upward trend, and the market shows whether there is a price or not. At present, under the negative situation of the sharp diving of the whole chemical cost end, adipic acid should maintain a weak position in the near future; in the near future, the atmosphere of domestic PA66 market remains cold and the market is relatively weak. In terms of supply, the logistics resistance has been gradually eased, and there are sufficient on-site goods. Downstream plants have low starting load and weak demand. Participants have insufficient confidence in the future market, and most of the on-site trading is just needed, with few large-scale stock up.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second week of March, the domestic PA66 market continued to adjust its weak position. The upstream adipic acid manufacturer dealers still need to improve the level of resumption of work, the spot price continues to fall, and the cost side of PA66 is not well supported. The downstream factories have a low rate of return to work, and they just need to prepare goods, so the demand is very limited. The market atmosphere is oversupplied, and the mentality of the industry is hit. In the near future, the bad news of crude oil and chemical industry keeps on, so PA66 aftermarket is afraid to suffer from it. PA66 market is expected to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate this week was 4350.00 yuan / ton, which was stable. The current price fell 2.79% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic potassium nitrate Market is stable this week. At present, potassium nitrate enterprises have basically resumed work, including Wenshui Zhenxing chemical fertilizer Co., Ltd., Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd., Wenshui Zhenxing chemical fertilizer Co., Ltd., Jiaocheng County Hesheng Chemical Co., Ltd., and Shanxi Jiaocheng Star Chemical Co., Ltd. The light potassium carbonate production line of Taiyuan xinyufeng chemical plant has not been started yet; the potassium nitrate has been resumed. The transaction of new orders of potassium chloride in the upstream has weakened, most of the orders in the early stage are being shipped one after another, the port’s saleable volume is still decreasing, the price remains stable, the whole potash fertilizer market is also dominated by consolidation, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market is light, the downstream maintains just need to purchase, and the potassium nitrate Market is stable. This week, the main domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate offered 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business association think: this week, the market of potassium nitrate is stable, the domestic market of potassium fertilizer is relatively stable, and the upstream market of potassium chloride is also stable after rising. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will be consolidated in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in February, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price declined. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 6700 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 6300 yuan / ton. The price trend declined by 8.70%, 30% year-on-year. The external price of PX fell. The domestic PX market was highly dependent on the external market. The external price decline was the negative impact of domestic price.

In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined. The domestic PX operation rate is about 70%. The 600000 ton new unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been put into operation. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable. The first line of Fuhai Chuang plant has been started. The operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal. The operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load. Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation The operation of the unit is stable, with the start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant at about 50%, the operation of Hengli petrochemical plant is normal, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price is significantly lower. Affected by the decline of international crude oil price, the external price of PX fell in February. As of the 27th, the closing price in Asia was 686-688 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 706-708 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, several PX units in Asia are still under maintenance. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. The closing price of PX external market is sliding Domestic market, domestic market price of p-xylene fell.

Affected by the epidemic, transportation was limited to some extent. In February, the closing price of international crude oil fell sharply. As of the 27th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States continued to fall. The main contract was 47.09 yuan / barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil futures market continued to fall sharply. The main contract was 51.73 US dollars / barrel. The closing price of crude oil fell sharply, and the downstream petrochemical products lost With certain cost support, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene fell.

In February, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream fell sharply. As of 28, the price of PTA Market in East China was about 4300-4400 yuan, down 10.15% in February. In this public health emergency, the terminal weaving enterprises were the most affected in PTA industry chain, and when the downstream production could be resumed became the most worried topic in the market. Although many enterprises are planning to return to work after the middle of February, due to the upgrading of the local government’s protective measures against the epidemic, as well as the traffic control and isolation period of workers returning from other places, up to now, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is only 38%. In the past years, weaving enterprises can enter into normal production status in 2-3 weeks after the Spring Festival, but under the influence of the epidemic this year, weaving factories can recover gradually as early as the beginning of March, demand lags for at least one month, downstream demand is poor, and upstream market price of p-xylene is low.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at the business agency, believes that in the near future, the trend of crude oil price has declined, and the price of PTA Market in the downstream has fallen, so the methyl ester terminal market has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene in the later stage will continue to decline.