1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, the average price of liquefied natural gas on July 16 was 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, increased by 0.82% compared with the beginning of the month, decreased by 1.6% on a month on month basis, and decreased by 23.02% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
On the 16th, the domestic LNG market remained stable, with small fluctuations in some regions and little change in mainstream liquid prices. Since July 10, the benchmark price of feed gas for conventional liquid plants in Shaanxi, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia directly supplied by CNPC has remained at 1.34 yuan / m3. Most enterprises’ profits have shrunk, and the liquid price has hovered around the cost line. Enterprises have adjusted their quotations in a narrow range according to the inventory and shipment situation, and the wait-and-see psychology has risen. In the off-season, the demand is still poor. In recent years, there is more rain in southern China, which hinders transportation. At the same time, due to frequent safety accidents and increasingly strict environmental protection around the country, the demand for downstream is shrinking. However, the market supply is still abundant, and the new maintenance enterprises are Guoxin Xiangyuan, Qian’an yihuida, Ningxia XINKEYUAN, etc., but the preliminary maintenance enterprises are gradually ended, the supply side is favorable, the support is weakened, the market supply is sufficient, and the price is stagnant.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, in June, natural gas production was 15.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the average daily output was 510 million cubic meters. In the first half of the year, 94 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, 1.2 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter. Imported natural gas was 8.33 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. In the first half of the year, imported natural gas was 48.36 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, 1.5 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. Natural gas production has maintained a rapid growth, and import growth has accelerated significantly.
As of July 16, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 2463.33 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia was 2430-2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shaanxi was 2460-2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi was around 2500 yuan / ton, and the price in Xinjiang was around 3500 yuan / ton.
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from July 16 to July 15
Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 4300 yuan / ton: 4300 yuan / ton
Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 4600 yuan / ton 4600 yuan / ton
Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2500 yuan / ton: 2500 yuan / ton
Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2500 yuan / ton, 2500 yuan / ton
Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton 20 yuan
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2850 yuan / ton: 2850 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2540 yuan / ton 2540 yuan / ton
Qinshui Xinao — 2500 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton
The downstream methanol market rose slightly. Due to the strong performance of the maintenance market of some devices in Northwest China, manufacturers’ inventory pressure is not great, and the futures price is higher, the enterprise’s offer is actively following up; on the port side, after the spot price adjustment, the downstream is short of receiving high price goods The demand side is affected by factors such as rainy season and stricter environmental protection, and the traditional downstream start-up is not as expected. Although the profit of MTO is fair, the start-up is still at a low level compared with the same period last year. Some manufacturers still plan to repair in July. Short term adjustment of domestic methanol market will be maintained.
At present, the supply pressure of liquid ammonia is increasing, and the operating rate of enterprises is relatively high. Although the favorable agricultural demand in some parts such as northeast China is still continuing, it may continue to weaken in the later stage, and the industrial demand is weak for a long time. It is expected that the liquid ammonia market will remain weak in July, and the price will decline again.
Urea, in the middle of July, the market of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. According to urea analysts of the business club, the current agricultural demand is slightly down, and the single downstream industry is more active in urea procurement. In addition, with the printing mark approaching, it is expected that the short-term urea market will rise slightly.
| Sodium Molybdate |
Dichloromethane: at present, dichloromethane enterprises in Shandong Province have been running smoothly as a whole, and the market operating rate is not high. Some enterprises are still mainly for their own use, and the downstream market demand is still insufficient. Due to the cost pressure, there is little room for enterprises to reduce their prices. The market is in a dilemma of rising and falling due to the game between supply and demand. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2120-2150 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 2800 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, which is expected to be dominated by horizontal arrangement in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts from the business club believe that: in the off-season demand, the domestic natural gas market is still oversupply, and the overall situation is weak. At present, there is no good news to boost the market. Considering the production cost, enterprises support the price and wait and see the market. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to stay low in the short term with little change.
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