The summer market for compound fertilizers in May is approaching its end, and prices remain stable after fluctuating and rising (5.1-5.31)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31st, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3075 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3060 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% compared to the beginning of last month.


Upstream raw material trends





This month, domestic urea prices have fluctuated and risen. On May 1st, the price of urea was 2435 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price of urea was 2493 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to the beginning of the month.


Firstly, the urea futures market has performed well, and the spot market has also moderately risen. More importantly, the supply and demand fundamentals remain positive. On the one hand, there are more supply side maintenance companies, and multiple units in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi have not yet started construction. The inventory of urea enterprises remains at a low level. On the other hand, on the demand side, agricultural demand maintains a good momentum, and there is still a gap in agricultural demand. The shipment volume of urea manufacturers is at a high level, with prices generally rising. The upward momentum of urea prices at the end of the month is insufficient, and there may be a pullback.


Ammonium phosphate market


The market price of monoammonium phosphate has risen, while diammonium phosphate has been steadily consolidating and operating. The price of raw material phosphate ore is high and firm, with support from the cost side.


Monoammonium phosphate


It is 2853 yuan/ton. As of May 31st, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3150 yuan/ton. The market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 10.4% this month.


Diammonium phosphate


According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3896 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 31st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3883 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.34%.


Currently, the demand for diammonium phosphate in the market is light, and new transactions are limited.


Potassium sulfate


According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this month was 3176 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this month was 3264 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.76%.



In May, domestic potassium sulfate prices showed an upward trend. Resource based potassium sulfate manufacturer Guotou Luokang entered a comprehensive maintenance state at the end of this month and plans to resume production by September. As a result, the supply of goods has sharply decreased, and the spot supply in the hands of traders is also tight. The operating rate of potassium sulfate plants in Mannheim is mostly maintained at over 70%. The manufacturers have a high number of orders in the early stage and are currently not accepting orders at high prices. Most factory orders can continue to be shipped until late June or even July. Processed potassium sulfate manufacturers are relatively active in purchasing raw materials for potassium chloride. Driven by rigid demand, they mainly purchase on demand based on orders.


In terms of compound fertilizer, due to the rising prices of raw materials such as urea, ammonium phosphate, potassium fertilizer, etc., the cost of compound fertilizer has significantly increased, and the price of compound fertilizer has shown a fluctuating upward trend this month.


In terms of supply and demand


From a demand perspective, as the summer market approaches its end, the amount of compound fertilizer used is decreasing, and even if the price of compound fertilizer continues to rise, it will not be too high. From the inventory situation, some dealers have low inventory and usually purchase the required varieties through order based procurement according to the needs of market entities. Therefore, although the demand for compound fertilizers will weaken in the future, low inventory may make the price of compound fertilizers relatively stable.


Future Market Forecast

It is expected that after the summer market ends in mid June, the supply and demand of compound fertilizers will gradually weaken. However, due to low inventory levels and stable costs as the main influencing factor, the operation of the compound fertilizer market is not expected to experience significant fluctuations. There may be a slight adjustment in price, and the price difference between high and low prices may be further reduced.

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