Light Trading: the high level of butanone market fell this week (6.12-6.16)

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 16, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 11266 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the ex factory price of butanone was 11900 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 634 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.32%. Compared with June 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10433 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 833 yuan / ton, or 7.99%.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the overall high level of domestic butanone market fell this week, with a decline of about 5.32% in the week. At the beginning of this week, in the face of the current high market situation of butanone, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was aggravated, the demand was cautious, the trading atmosphere in the floor was light, and the demand support was loose. Under the influence of this, the market focus of butanone fell, the factory offer was lowered continuously, the traders’ quotations were mostly in line with the market, and the market price continued to decline. As of June 16, the ex factory price of butanone was around 10200-10400 yuan / ton, with a decline of 300-500 yuan / ton in the week. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is still low, and the downstream is mainly preparing goods on demand and negotiating with actual orders.

 

Upstream, on June 15, the domestic liquefied gas market weakened as a whole, and the price of Shandong civil gas market continued to fall, with a downward range of about 50 yuan / ton. In the morning, the international crude oil price fell in a bad market mentality. In addition, in the current traditional off-season, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the civil price of liquefied gas will continue to be weak in the short term.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Future analysis of butanone

 

At present, the supply side of butanone field has given some support to the market. In June, the field start-up was low, and the overall pressure on the supply side was small, but the overall performance of the demand side was average. The butanone data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

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Aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly

The domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly. At present, the external quotation of major manufacturers is stable, and the supply is reduced, which has boosted the mentality of trade market operators. Subsequently, the quotation of traders is stable and upward. Coupled with the current low inventory at the social level, the market continues to push up. However, the actual transaction price needs to be further followed up.

 

povidone Iodine

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 6 to 10, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 17000 yuan / ton to 18020 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 6.00%, a month on month price increase of 0.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.42%.

 

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 10:

 

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

South China, 18000 yuan / ton, 17700-18000 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong, 18000 yuan / ton, 17600-18000 yuan / ton

East China, 18000 yuan / ton, 17700-18000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders by June 10:

 

Raw material pure benzene: the main factors supporting the price rise of pure benzene include the rise of external market, the decline of domestic port inventory, the restart of downstream automobile transportation pure benzene consumer enterprises, the rise of styrene and other factors.

 

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

 
Aniline: at present, the high cost has supported the increase of aniline for many times. However, Shanghai Lianheng has a maintenance plan in late June. If the maintenance plan is implemented, part of the contract volume will be released to the market, which has a certain negative impact on the market.

Benzalkonium chloride

 

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business community:

 

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

 

Monthly K column chart of MDI domestic production price aggregated by business club:

 

Weekly K column chart of MDI domestic production price aggregated by business club:

 

List of rise and fall of product prices in the MDI industrial chain of business community aggregation:

 

List of price rise and fall of products in the sector of MDI aggregated by business club:

 

Crude oil and external market still form high support for domestic prices, but with the gradual easing of market supply and demand. In the future, the analysts of the business community aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is dominated by shock consolidation.

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PVC market price rises first and then declines

1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8650 yuan / ton on June 12, up 2.11% from 8471.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 5.21% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the PVC market continued to rise. The futures rose to above 8800, driving the spot market prices to rise synchronously. Prices in many places in China rose for several days. However, the atmosphere of high price transaction was general. The downstream product industry started poorly, the real estate sector was still weak. At the same time, the export sector weakened, and the demand side recovered less than expected. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was lowered, and the cost side support fell, which was bad for many parties, PVC prices stopped rising and turned to falling in the middle and late weeks of the week, and the market became weak. By the end of the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4050 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8400-8850 yuan / ton. At present, the external price is quoted at USD 1190 / ton in CFR China, USD 1285 / ton in CFR Southeast Asia, and USD 1380 / ton in CFR India.

 

It can be seen from the weekly increase and decrease from March 21, 2022 to June 12, 2022 that domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle. The maximum increase was in the week of March 28 and the maximum decrease was in the week of May 23. The overall fluctuation in the near future is not large.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

For international crude oil, the oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. On June 10, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

 

Ethylene, as of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1026-1036 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at USD 1677-1687 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at USD 1423-1431 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the 9th, the price was 662-680 yuan / ton. This week, the overall trend of ethylene in the external market was rising first and then falling. It was mainly dominated by European and American ethylene. The actual transaction was poor and the price fluctuated and fell.

 

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide increased. However, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid June.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current demand has recovered, but it is less than expected. After the PVC price rises, the market trading is poor. It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate and decline in the short term.

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The downstream demand picks up and the price of antimony ingots rises slightly (from June 2 to June 10)

From June 2 to June 10, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China increased slightly. The price was 80000 yuan / ton last weekend and 80500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.62%.

 

povidone Iodine

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, slowed down at the end of April, stabilized in May and slightly warmed up in June.

 

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

 

varieties., June 2, June 10, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 13600.,13350.,- two hundred and fifty

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline, but the overall downward trend slowed down. By June 10, the price was $13350 / ton, with a weekly decrease of $250 / ton.

 

Melamine

This week, the market price of antimony ingots increased slightly, and the market sentiment was better than that in the early stage. The main reason was that the demand for antimony oxide was expected to improve. Therefore, the smelter was reluctant to sell and had a certain price support mentality. However, in terms of actual demand, the early influencing factors have not been substantially improved. The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the supply of antimony ingots is still tight. Therefore, the increase of market price this week is limited. It is expected that in the future, when there is a small increase in downstream demand, the market price may rise slightly in the near future, but the upward space is limited.

 

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

 

varieties., June 2, June 10, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 69500.,69500., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 71500.,71500., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price was temporarily stable. With the digestion of the market, the antimony oxide inventory has declined recently, and enterprises have a certain demand for purchasing antimony ingots.

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The price of imported potassium chloride rose by 2.48% this week (6.4-6.10)

1、 Price trend

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5500.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 2.48%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On June 9, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 144.74, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 49.66% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers rose slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5500 yuan / ton of potassium chloride at the end of this week, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5500 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5500 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 5300-5400 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5200 yuan / ton. The border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate rose slightly this week, from 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9900.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.28%, an increase of 46.88% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this week, from 7587.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7637.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.66%, an increase of 66.76% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride was good.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

In the middle of June, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow range fluctuation. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge is adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, the downstream demand was good, and it was just needed to purchase. The international potash price is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

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Supply supports the rising operation of butanone market after the Dragon Boat Festival

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 8, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 11966 yuan / ton. Compared with June 5 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10733 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1233 yuan / ton, or 11.49%. Compared with June 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10433 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 1533 yuan / ton, or 14.70%.

 

povidone Iodine

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in early June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic butanone market had a slight upward movement under the small-scale downstream goods preparation. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand of butanone market was mainly for procurement, the international crude oil price rose, and the rising carbon 4 price after the raw ether gave butanone more cost support. The overall operating rate in the butanone plant was low, the inventory pressure was reduced, and some factories were reluctant to sell, The supply side also effectively consolidated the butanone market. Therefore, with the dual support of the supply side and the cost side, the domestic butanone market ushered in a broad rise after the holiday. As of June 9, the domestic butanone market price was around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 11% after the holiday. At present, after the rapid rise of butanone market, the on-site wait-and-see mood has increased, and the downstream goods preparation is generally cautious, mainly followed by small orders.

 

Melamine

In the upstream, in June, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market was strong, and Shandong civil gas market took the lead after the festival. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 6237.50 yuan / ton on June 1, and 6362.50 yuan / ton on June 7. During this period, the increase was 2.00%, an increase of 53.93% over the same period last year. The beginning of the month coincided with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market was strong, and the price focus of Shandong civil gas market moved upward. The main positive factors of this rising market came from international crude oil. After the festival, international crude oil rose violently, bringing obvious support to the market. In addition, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. The market trading atmosphere is mild, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, and the price increases. However, due to the weak terminal demand, the rising market was blocked. In addition, the current civil gas price was at a relatively high level, and the market continued to rise. On the 7th, the price fell sharply.

 

Future analysis of butanone

 

At present, the transaction at high prices in the butanone market is cautious. The downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. The factory is still willing to support the price, but the domestic demand is generally boosted. The butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly be sorted out and operated in multiple ranges, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand of butanone.

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Multiple positive supports – MTBE price “keeps rising”

After the labor day, the domestic MTBE market rose sharply. According to the data of business agency, the domestic MTBE market continued to rise from May 11 to June 8, with a significant increase. On May 11, the price of MTBE was kept at 7200 yuan / ton, and on June 8, the price was kept at 8512 yuan / ton. During the period, the price increased by 18.23% and the price increased by 42.75% year-on-year.

 

Trend chart of MTBE average domestic production price of business agency:

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

At present, multiple positive factors continue to push the MTBE market upward: first, the international oil price continues to rise, which gives support to the market mentality. The whole oil industry chain has a good atmosphere and strong momentum; Secondly, export orders have been boosted, especially in Shandong, where factories are concentrated in the port, export resources are in short supply, goods are tight and prices are high, and merchants are actively pushing up; Thirdly, the price of gasoline has also stepped up, and the rigid demand for local refining still exists, which supports the market demand. MTBE market transactions in various regions are good.

 

Annual comparison chart of MTBE prices of business club from 2018 to 2022:

 

In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market is in a stalemate and the spot transaction is poor. Although the macro was strong and the futures disk rose strongly, the overall spot follow-up was insufficient and the basis weakened rapidly. The prices in the main production areas in Northwest China are mixed, and the prices in Inner Mongolia are lowered and those in Guanzhong, Shaanxi are raised. However, it is difficult to deal in large quantities; The downstream receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, has remained basically stable. Although the upstream price has been lowered, the freight has risen, and it is difficult for traders to push up and make profits. The short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by stalemate.

 

Comparison chart of crude oil and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

 

Comparison chart of methanol and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

 

Comparison chart of gasoline and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

 

Price trend comparison chart of Yishe diesel and MTBE:

 

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on June 7, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by $8 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $1312.99-1314.99 / T. The closing price of MTBE market in Europe decreased by USD 15.50/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at USD 1827.99-1828.49/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 12.53 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB price closed at 1873.11-1873.47 dollars / ton (527.64-527.74 cents / gallon).

 

Sodium Molybdate

Region, country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1312.99-1314.99 USD / ton, USD 8 / ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1827.99-1828.49 USD / ton, – 15.5 USD / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1873.11-1873.47 USD / ton, – 12.53 USD / ton

Monthly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price of business agency:

Weekly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price of business agency:

 

Price fluctuation chart of MTBE industrial chain of Business Club:

 

Price rise and fall list of MTBE industrial chain products of Business Club:

 

List of price rise and fall of products in MTBE sector of Business Club:

 

Crude oil is still at a high level, and there are still export orders, which gives strong support to the market. In addition, in recent years, each company has little inventory, and some rigid demand is still in existence. Therefore, businesses are very bullish MTBE analysts of business agency believe that there is still room for the domestic MTBE market to rise in the short term.

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PA6 market rose in May

1、 Price trend:

 

povidone Iodine

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic market of PA6 rose in May, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of May 30, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 16300 yuan / ton, up or down by +3.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose this month. The crude oil was violently shaken by the increasingly tense situation in Eastern Europe, and the raw materials pure benzene and caprolactam were supported. At the beginning of the month, some caprolactam enterprises planned to overhaul their devices, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in prices. Downstream procurement is based on demand, mainly on maintaining production. It is expected that the caprolactam market may be sideways after rising in the short term.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

The upstream caprolactam market trend is positive, and the cost side support of PA6 this week is acceptable. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at about 70% in the month, with limited change. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine remains the same, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices does not significantly support the transmission of PA6 cost side as expected. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, but the profit of the manufacturer is under pressure. The load of downstream enterprises was basically sideways, the demand slowed down, and the on-site trading at the end of the month decreased. The health incident in May has hindered the logistics in many places in East China and has not yet ended, affecting some PA6 demand.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA6 rose in May, the trend of caprolactam rose as a whole, and the cost support of PA6 was acceptable. Downstream enterprises mainly take small orders to maintain production. There is resistance to high price goods in the market, and the trading volume shrinks. It is expected that the trend of PA6 market may turn down in the short term.

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In the off-season of demand, the polyethylene market weakened as a whole in May

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) was 9000.00 yuan / ton on May 1 and 8888.33 yuan / ton on May 30. The decline rate in May was 1.24%, 4.22% lower than that on April 1.

 

Melamine

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) was 11750.00 yuan / ton on May 1, and 11300.00 yuan / ton on May 30. The decline in May was 3.83%, 4.64% lower than that on April 1.

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9866.67 yuan / ton on May 1 and 9850.00 yuan / ton on May 30. The decline rate in May was 0.17%, which was stable compared with April 1.

 

In May, the overall weakness of the domestic polyethylene market decreased, and the three major varieties in East China all went down to varying degrees. Among them, LLDPE and LDPE showed a trend of first rising and then declining, and the HDPE market showed a trend of first falling and then stabilizing. During the month, the market was more bad than good. In May, the international crude oil price rose, and the cost side brought some support to the market. However, with the completion of equipment maintenance of some manufacturers, the market supply has increased. In addition, with the arrival of the off-season, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream factories maintain the replenishment on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, the petrochemical inventory is at a high level, and the overall price is weak.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

In May, Liansu futures market fell first and then rose, which brought phased support to the spot market. On May 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 8794, the highest price was 8880, the lowest price was 8747, the closing price was 8874, the previous settlement price was 8796, the settlement price was 8812, up 78, the trading volume was 381533, the position was 326296, and the daily position was increased by 20345. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

 

At present, the international crude oil price is rising, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. However, affected by the off-season demand, the terminal demand is weak, and the market supply is still expected to increase in the later period, and the market negative factors are still obvious. It is expected that the PE spot market may still weaken in June.

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The game between good cost and weak demand stopped the decline of adipic acid price in late May

According to the monitoring of the business club, in May, the domestic adipic acid went out of the inertia decline in April, and then stopped falling and rebounded. On the one hand, the cost side is favorable, and pure benzene continues to rise, bringing profit pressure to downstream adipic acid enterprises. However, driven by factors such as relative excess supply and insufficient demand, adipic acid did not follow the upward pace of pure benzene in the middle and early days, and the market hit the bottom and rebounded in the late days. Throughout the month, adipic acid still fell by 0.50%. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of adipic acid in East China was 11800-12200 yuan / ton.

 

Supply side

 

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of manufacturers in this month was mainly flat compared with that in the previous month, about 70%. Although the operating rate did not rise significantly, the pressure on enterprise inventory was obvious in the first two months, and the manufacturer has been reducing prices and arranging inventory. In the middle and late ten days of the year, the market inventory pressure gradually eased. With the increase of the listing price of the manufacturer, the market also bottomed out and rebounded. In terms of commencement, Hongding and Jiangsu Haili plants were shut down within the month, and one of Shandong Haili lines was briefly maintained; Taihua Chemical Co., Ltd. operated at reduced load, and the utilization rate of the unit was reduced to less than 50%. Other devices are mainly normal. In the case of insufficient demand, the relatively abundant supply is the fundamental reason for the low price of adipic acid.

 

Cost side

 

Market trend of pure benzene upstream adipic acid

 

According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene was the main player this month, with an increase of 6.37% this month. The price of plateau feedstock still supports the downstream adipic acid. In the later stage, as the cost continues to transfer, adipic acid may still have the power to move.

 

povidone Iodine

Market trend of cyclohexanone upstream adipic acid

 

The price of cyclohexanone also kept rising this month, with an increase of 4.2%. The high-level operation of raw material pure benzene gives support to the whole industrial chain. In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises is low, and the supply is slightly tight, adding positive factors. At the same time, the downstream continued to recover, the basic demand began to expand, and the cyclohexanone market was relatively strong in the whole may.

 

The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene increased significantly, boosting the downstream. This is also the direct reason why the price of adipic acid can reach the bottom and rise when the supply and demand is relatively weak.

 

Demand side

 

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

 

Terminal demand: the demand for adipic acid remained weak this month. The epidemic situation and transportation problems restrained some procurement demand. The downstream start-up was relatively sluggish. Although the holiday was approaching, the downstream plants did not have the peak of early stocking as in previous years. The orders shall be mainly based on the rigid demand, and the actual orders shall be negotiated for multiple low-level transactions. In terms of export, the volume of goods shipped has not changed much, but the prices mostly run at low prices along with the domestic market prices. In general, the weak demand for adipic acid in April is the core reason for the weak price.

 

Downstream product PA66: according to the monitoring of business agency, PA66 continued to decline in May, narrowed compared with the previous month, with a range of -3.74%. In May, the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was still high on the whole. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, and the profit of PA66 enterprise is under pressure. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. The impact of domestic health events on East China in this month has not yet ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The turnover on the floor declined, superimposed on the end of the month, and the seller’s mentality was poor, so he let the single operation of profit take the lead. Overall, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not changed much, and demand is the most important factor restricting its market.

 

Melamine

Upstream and downstream industrial chain

 

Trend of adipic acid industrial chain

 

The above figure shows that in May, the upstream of adipic acid industrial chain was stronger, and the upstream products pure benzene and cyclohexanone generally rose. While the cost side was still good for adipic acid, it also put pressure on adipic acid manufacturers, and their profits continued to decline compared with last month. In addition, the price of PA66 in the downstream is weakening, indicating that the downstream demand for adipic acid is still weakening. The high cost has brought a certain degree of pressure on the terminal demand.

 

Outlook

 

In the near future, the business community believes that the cost side: the crude oil market continues to rise, the upstream cost brings pressure, the raw material pure benzene mostly follows the trend of crude oil, and the high oil price pure benzene brings support, but adipic acid will still face the pressure from high cost in the future. At present, the rising trend of adipic acid has not been fully opened, and the manufacturer may gradually raise the price in the later stage. In addition, the adipic acid manufacturer has a maintenance plan in the near future, so it is likely that the supply will decline in the future, Positive factors in the supply side may support its continued recovery. However, there is little possibility of a sharp rise or fall, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream demand in the later stage.

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