From November 4, 2022 to November 11, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China will be lowered. Last weekend, the price was 78750 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was 77750 yuan/ton, down 1.27%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot market has been on the up trend in the near future around the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after the middle of March, and entered a downward channel in the middle of April. The decline trend slowed down at the end of April. The trend was stable in May. The price entered an upward channel in June. After a short period of stability in July, it fell again. After August, the market was gradually stable, flat for seven consecutive weeks, and the price began to decline at the end of October.

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD/t)

Variety, November 4, November 11, up and down

European small metal antimony., 11700., 10900., – 800

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe remained stable for the time being. As of November 11, the price was 10,900 US dollars/ton, with a weekly drop of 800 US dollars/ton. The market transaction was cold and the negotiation was limited.

Antimony ingot prices continued to decline this week, with European prices falling to US $10900/t for the first time, and dropping by US $800/t weekly. This week, the price of antimony ingots dropped continuously, with a cumulative decrease of 1000 yuan/ton. This round of decline occurred after the antimony ingot market temporarily stabilized for seven consecutive weeks, and broke the weak balance of the market at the end of October. The price of antimony ingot fell continuously due to the performance of antimony oxide in the downstream. At present, the market performance of downstream flame retardants is poor, the application of antimony oxide is limited, and the price continues to decline under the lack of demand support. The antimony oxide manufacturers suspend the purchase of antimony ingots. In terms of supply and demand, the overall change in the near future is not big. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, downstream enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement. In terms of supply, the output in October has not changed much since the domestic large factories resumed production in September. As the external antimony ingot price continues to decline slightly, market participants generally believe that the possibility of antimony ingot price declining is growing. The business community expects that the overall performance of the antimony ingot market will remain stable and weak under the condition that the downstream demand will not improve in the near future.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety, November 4, November 11, up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 65500., 65000., – 500

99.8% antimony trioxide, 67500., 67000., – 500

The domestic antimony oxide market price was weak this week, the sales of antimony oxide remained weak, and the downstream market was short of gas. The purchase of antimony ingots by antimony oxide enterprises is still on demand in the near future, and the overall market atmosphere is wait-and-see.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price was 49800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 49200 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 1.2%, down 28.4% year on year. On November 13, the bromine commodity index was 172.63, unchanged from yesterday, 29.59% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27), and 192.99% higher than the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price was weak and consolidated, the overall market trading was average, and the bromine price continued to decline. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been lack of support, and the supply and demand game, bromine enterprises’ shipment is not smooth. However, the market transactions are still dominated by just in need procurement. The industry is pessimistic, and the downstream takes the opportunity to lower prices.

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1303.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1363.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.6%, down 35.18% year on year. At present, the sulfur market is on the sidelines, the production of the manufacturer is stable, the downstream sulfuric acid market is organized and operated, the support for sulfur is limited, the progress of winter fertilizer storage is slow, the demand for sulfur is weak, the enterprise ships on demand, and the sulfur market is organized and operated later.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides play a game. The spot supply of bromine is sufficient, and there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese decreased slightly this week (November 4 to November 11). The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton last weekend, and 17250 yuan/ton this weekend, down 0.29%.

Manganese ore: With the appearance of alloy plant profits, the manganese ore end also stopped falling and stabilized, and the transactions and inquiries have improved. The semi carbonate in Tianjin Port is about 34 yuan/ton, while Gabon is about 39-39.2 yuan/ton. However, it is difficult to raise the price. The price of Australia is around 43-43.5 yuan/ton, and that of Australia is 38.5-39 yuan/ton. As the price of the external market stopped falling and stabilized, the port merchants were also unwilling to lower their prices, and the overall trend was slightly better. However, because the profits of the manufacturers were still average, the purchasing sentiment for high priced manganese ore was general, and it was still difficult for manganese ore prices to rise.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, and fell slightly in November.

The electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week. After a month long game period, the market finally broke the ice this week, and the price of electrolytic manganese fell slightly. At present, the mainstream price in China is 15400-15700 yuan/ton. The overall market negotiation is a little cold and the market sentiment is weak. The game psychology of the supply and demand sides is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The recent performance of steel recruitment is average, and the market guidance is limited. In general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction by subsequent enterprises may be beneficial to the market, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

In terms of manganese and silicon: this week, due to the price of 7450 yuan/ton determined by Hegang Group, although it dropped by 100 yuan/ton month on month, it was slightly better than the market expectation. The retail price was firm to more than 7000 yuan/ton, while the futures market was also strong. With an active market inquiry and procurement atmosphere, the silicon and manganese spot market was stable and good this week. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7000-7100 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 7066 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from Monday.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 11, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6850.00 yuan/ton, which was mainly stable compared with the same period last week. The overall DMF market price did not change much. At present, the overall market operation rate is stable, the overall procurement atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the price has a small upward trend.

The domestic DMF price has a stable trend. At present, the mainstream price range is 6900.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is general, the operating rate is stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Chemical commodity index: On November 10, the chemical index was 944 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 32.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.86% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The DMF analyst from the business agency believes that the DMF market is stable and strong in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference is 8700 yuan/ton, which is 200 yuan/ton higher than the price on October 30 (8500 yuan/ton), or 2.35% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (10.31-11.04), the domestic butanone market overall showed a slight upward trend. The driving force supporting the small upward trend of domestic butanone market mainly comes from the following two aspects:

On the one hand, in terms of cost, the post C4 market of raw material ether has been running steadily upward since the middle of October, and the cost side has gradually strengthened its support for butanone. The quotations of butanone manufacturers are mostly stable or slightly increased.

Second, in terms of supply, in October, the overall performance of butanone export was good. In November, the domestic spot supply was controllable, and the overall supply side pressure was small, supporting the market to rise slightly.

As of November 4, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price increase is about 200-400 yuan/ton.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, after the butanone market rose slightly, the trading volume was average, the overall performance of the demand side was poor, and the trading atmosphere in the market was light. The butanone data engineer of the business community believed that in the short term, the upward momentum of the butanone market continued to be limited, and the market mostly focused on the range consolidation operation, and more attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market is 17880 yuan/ton, which is 40 yuan/ton higher than the reference price of October 30, 2022 (17760 yuan/ton), or 0.68% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that last week, the market situation of silicone DMC steadily recovered. Shandong large factories raised the price of silicone DMC by 500 yuan/ton accumulatively last week. Although the prices of large factories did not increase widely, they also promoted the overall atmosphere of the market. Entering this week (10.31-11.04), at the beginning of the week, the leading large factories slightly raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC to around 18000-18200 yuan/ton. Most of the other monomer plants offer stable and firm prices. At present, as of November 4, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 17800-18200 yuan/ton. The main driving factors supporting the recent upward movement of the silicone DMC market are from the following two aspects:

1、 In terms of supply, at present, most of the equipment in the monomer factory has started to undergo reduced maintenance, and the starting load of the monomer factory has dropped to about 6 floors. The monomer factory has actively reduced the load to cope with the current weak market situation. In addition, the transportation in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been blocked, and the spot circulation of silicone DMC has decreased, mainly supporting the silicone DMC manufacturers to firm their quotations.

2、 In terms of cost, in this week, although the price of raw metal silicon declined slightly, it still remained at a high level as a whole. Therefore, the cost still gave support to the DMC market.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the domestic metal silicon market declined slightly in November. On November 4, the reference price of metal silicon was 21190 yuan/ton, down 1.3% compared with November 1 (21470 yuan/ton).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the support given to organosilicon DMC by downstream demand is still insufficient. In the early stage, downstream users bought on bargain, and some organosilicon DMC stocks on the market were digested, but the market is still in a wait-and-see mood, and the enthusiasm for stocking has not been fully opened. Therefore, the silicone DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market tends to adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (October 28 to November 4). The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton last weekend and 17300 yuan/ton this weekend, which was flat.

Manganese ore: The overall transaction was average. The spot side was driven by the good alloy futures. The merchants tried to raise the offer. However, the manufacturers were in a general mood to receive goods due to poor profits. In terms of external markets, South32 offered manganese ore to China in December, with high quality Australian pieces of 4.7 dollars per ton (down 0.1 dollars per ton) and South African semi carbonate of 3.98 dollars per ton (down 0.04 dollars per ton). The overall decline was smaller than expected, which gave some support to the spot price. In terms of spot goods, the transaction price of Tianjin Port Australia block was 43.5-44 yuan/ton, that of semi carbonic acid was 33.5-34 yuan/ton, and that of Gabon was about 38.5 yuan/ton. Low price resources decreased. The overall inventory of the port remains high, but if the alloy price goes up, the quotation of manganese ore will also be slightly adjusted.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the end of August, the price has continued to stabilize temporarily, and since the end of September, the price has risen slightly.

The market price of electrolytic manganese is temporarily stable this week, with the mainstream price of 15500-15700 yuan/ton. At the end of October, the EMM Innovation Working Committee of China Mining Association proposed to stop the production of EMM completely in January 2023, and to stop the production of EMM by 50% from February to December 2023. Six suggestions were adopted at the meeting. The impact of this proposal on the market remains to be seen. At present, the market enterprises have a strong mentality of price fixing, and it is difficult to find low price goods on the market. The overall market is bullish. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The recent performance of steel recruitment is average, and the market guidance is limited. In general, the electrolytic manganese market, which lacks the support of actual demand, will maintain a temporary stable operation in the future. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction will benefit the market to a certain extent, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

Manganese silicon: After the sharp drop on Monday, the market performance improved significantly on Wednesday, led by the black series. The second half of the week saw a very encouraging rise. The confidence in the industry was significantly boosted. Except for the firm quotations of most enterprises, some companies did not offer to the outside world for the time being, and showed a wait-and-see trend. In November, the steel bidding was launched, and the mining volume of Hegang Group was raised on a month on month basis, which improved the market confidence. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 6950-7000 yuan/ton on November 4, with the average market price of 6983 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market continued to fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the drop in this month was 2.09%, 7.53% lower than the peak in mid October. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10200-10400 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week (October 31 to November 4). Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream of adipic acid fell heavily, with the decline of 4.49% for pure benzene and 6.61% for cyclohexane. While the cost side is negative, it relieves the cost pressure of adipic acid production. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 4.49%. On the one hand, the guiding price of the main refinery was lowered by 250 yuan/ton, which dampened the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, the inventory pressure of styrene and pure benzene manufacturers is high this week, and the increase in supply puts pressure on the market. The superposition of ports has led to a sharp increase in domestic supply. On the other hand, affected by road restrictions, the poor flow of goods further limits the market circulation and circulation speed. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is between 6900-7400 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.

Supply side: Some adipic acid plants slightly increased the negative operating rate

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of this month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the collection price of Shandong Dachang was significantly reduced by 500 yuan/ton, which brought pressure to the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid is approaching 60% this week. Xinjiang Tianli plant resumed operation, in addition, Taihua plant was lifted; However, at the same time, one set of Shenma equipment entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month, while the rest of the equipment did not change much, and the overall supply rebounded slightly. The enterprise continues to accumulate the stock.

Demand side: weak downstream demand to maintain rigid demand

Adipic acid downstream performance is tepid, the demand side is weak, the market buying is light, and the early inventory is mainly digested. Downstream factories are cautious in taking goods, and sporadic just need to make up orders to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 0 this week. Since August, PA66 has continued to rise, mainly due to the manufacturer’s equipment maintenance and the shortage of market supply. The market has stopped rising since late October. The cost and sales pressure of polymerization plants increased, and the market callback pressure increased. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, the later period of crude oil shock and rise may bring benefits to pure benzene. However, considering that the supply pressure of pure benzene is still large, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve too much in the later period, and it is undoubtedly difficult to boost the cost of adipic acid. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.

On October 27, the crude benzol commodity index was 97.64, down 4.62 points from yesterday, 25.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 219.71% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In October 2022, the crude benzene market rose first and then fell. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6165 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 7.5%.

In October, the crude oil fluctuated widely and rose on the whole. As of the 27th day, the SC crude oil had jumped out of the stalemate for several consecutive days, and the market’s bullish enthusiasm rose rapidly. On the 27th, the main contract of SC crude oil rose 1.83% to close at 678.9 yuan/barrel. Macroscopically, the US dollar has declined, and the pressure on US dollar denominated commodities has eased; In addition, the weak economic data strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase, and the oil market received some support. On the supply and demand side, the US oil export reached a record high, which was beneficial to the higher operating rate of US refineries.

In the short term, the macro and supply and demand sides are good for the oil market, and the oil price is short-term or strong. However, the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia is coming into effect soon. The oil market is uncertain due to the disturbance of such factors as geopolitics. In the medium and long term, the bad news on the demand side will continue to suppress oil prices. The increased risk of the global economy entering recession will make the oil market continue to maintain a volatile trend. A short-term rebound cannot change the long-term trend.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

October 8., 8000.,+150

October 10., 8200.,+200

October 13., 8000., – 200

October 18., 7850., – 150

October 26., 7650., – 200

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene. In October 2022, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has risen twice and decreased three times, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton and a decrease of 550 yuan/ton. As of the 28th, the price will be 7650 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7530 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Weilian Chemical quoted 7503 yuan/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell in October. During the National Day holiday, the crude oil price rose significantly. After the festival, the pure benzene market was significantly boosted. After the festival, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, which again boosted the market mentality. The market price rose significantly. After the festival, there was a certain demand for replenishment in some downstream markets. The superimposed market atmosphere was good. After the festival, the market trading was warm, and the price of pure benzene was adjusted at a high level for a period of time. By the middle of October, the downstream weakness had declined, adversely affecting the upstream market. The concentrated arrival of pure benzene at ports had once again affected the market mentality. The pure benzene market began to enter the downward channel. Sinopec had lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene for four consecutive times since about the 13th, and the spot market had fallen significantly, and the market trading was relatively cold. The trend of hydrogenated benzene followed that of pure benzene this month, which was basically a high shock in the first half of the month, while the price in the second half of the month dropped significantly.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of crude benzol market, the trend fluctuated at an initial high in October and began to decline significantly in the middle of the year, basically following the overall trend of the industrial chain. As of the last bidding day of October 27, the mainstream price in Shandong was 6250~6255 yuan/ton, 560 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month. Near the end of the month, affected by the weak overall performance of the industrial chain, the profits of benzol hydrogenation enterprises were tightened. It was heard that some enterprises had maintenance plans, and the demand for crude benzene was afraid to decline. Coking enterprises are about to enter the heating season. Coking enterprises are facing off peak production. At that time, the output of by-products will decline, and the supply of crude benzol in the future is expected to be tight. In general, the bad news and good news in the crude benzol market are intertwined. Under the market environment of tight supply and declining demand, the crude benzol price is expected to be stable and weak. In the future, we will focus on the guidance of crude oil price trend on the industrial chain and the change of operating rate of coking enterprises.

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of domestic mainstream urea market fell in shock this month: the price of urea fell from 2555.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.92%. A year-on-year drop of 18.64%.

On October 30, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In October, the price of urea fell slightly, with the highest weekly drop of 2.15%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic urea mainstream market rose and fell each other this month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the urea upstream products fell sharply this month as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, from 68342.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5540.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 18.93%, 24.04% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing fast) fell slightly, from 1850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1780.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up by 70 yuan/ton. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.40%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea rose slightly in the future

The urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of November. The upstream anthracite and natural gas prices were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is followed up appropriately, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. In the future, urea may rise slightly.