1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the butyl rubber market has stabilized this week. As of May 24th, the mainstream price of domestic butyl rubber (1751) was 17600 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week and a decrease of 260 yuan or 1.46% compared to May 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Cost side: The isobutene market has seen a narrow decline this week, with the mainstream price of isobutene (≥ 99, loose water) in China as of May 23 at 12050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan or 1.23% compared to last week. The upstream MTBE market continued to operate weakly, with international oil prices falling narrowly overall, weakening support for the isobutene market. It is expected that the recent isobutene market will be weak and mainly consolidation.

Supply and demand side:

The power consumption of downstream steel tires has slightly increased compared to last week, with a load rate of around 6.5 floors for the entire steel tire industry and around 8 floors for the semi steel tire industry. This week, the steel tire industry is operating at a high level, and some companies in the steel tire industry have parking and maintenance plans. The load rate of the steel tire industry will decrease. The demand for raw materials has decreased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The market for butyl rubber has stabilized this week. The narrow decline in the upstream isobutene market has weakened support for the butyl rubber market. On the supply and demand side, imported goods are gradually arriving at the port to fill in inventory. With the arrival of summer, butyl rubber is facing seasonal production reductions. In the downstream steel tire industry, with maintenance plans in place, the industry’s load rate may decrease, leading to a decrease in demand for upstream raw materials. The trend performance under the long short game is not obvious, and it is expected that the recent butyl rubber market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

The domestic phenol market continues to be weak, mainly due to the sluggish demand and difficult to change atmosphere. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the market offer on May 17th was 7850 yuan/ton, and on May 22nd it was 7725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59%.

The factories have lowered their listing prices, with Sinopec East China Phenol executing 7700 yuan/ton and Sinopec North China Phenol Factory executing 7650-7700 yuan/ton. The price of Lihua Yiwei Yuanphenol has been executed at 7700 yuan/ton, and factories have lowered their listing prices. The market’s wait-and-see atmosphere has increased, and there is a clear sentiment of buying up but not falling at the end, resulting in insufficient trading on the market.

On May 22nd, the quotations for phenol in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7630./ 0

Shandong region/ 7700./ -100

The surrounding areas of Yanshan/ 7700./ -100

South China region/ 7820./ -80

From the perspective of Business Society, the price of raw material pure benzene has fallen, with a transaction price in East China at 9000 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 80 yuan/ton in a single day. Crude oil has fallen within the day, and the market for styrene has loosened, indicating a significant change in industry sentiment. Downstream bisphenol A has slightly increased, with a reference price in East China ranging from 9700 to 9800 yuan/ton. However, the industry operating rate has not changed much, and the demand for raw materials is stable. It is expected that the phenol market will operate weakly, and attention will continue to be paid to the supply and demand fundamentals.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the domestic price of water bottle grade PET is 7200 yuan/ton, and the price of fiber grade PET is 6907 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall PET raw material market is showing a strong operation, with favorable support from the cost side of raw materials and crude oil, driving up the PET market price. The market center is mainly upward, and downstream buyers are cautious in pursuing growth, with sporadic replenishment as the main demand. Currently, the overall PET market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

2、 Market analysis

The cost side of PET still has support, and the overall market quotation is stable and slightly strong. Although the overnight crude oil price has declined, the upstream raw material side has favorable support. Currently, PET factories are operating at a high price, and the focus of negotiations is on a high level. Downstream demand procurement is maintained, and they are resisting high priced sources of goods, The upward momentum of PET is weak.

In terms of cost: The upward trend of ethylene glycol is volatile and consolidation is strong, and the market performance is strong. Recently, the ethylene glycol market has shown a strong performance, and market sentiment has improved. At the same time, the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol has changed. Currently, the crude oil market is operating in a volatile manner, and there is some support on the cost side. It is expected that the ethylene glycol market will be mainly volatile and upward in the short term, and more upstream PTA devices are expected to start operating by the end of May, The situation of destocking in the PTA market is considerable. Overall, there is some support in the PTA market, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the equipment situation in the later stage. It is expected that the PTA market will maintain its current trend in the short term, maintain a stable, medium to strong trend, and operate at a low level of inventory.

In terms of demand: The operating rate of the downstream polyester short fiber market is around 85%, and the overall market is showing a stable trend. The supply side is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased, mainly maintaining a low level of operation. Recently, international crude oil prices have shown a weak trend, but the prices of dual raw materials have fluctuated. Overall, there is still some support on the cost side. The short fiber market quotation is stable, with a slight increase in price. The overall market is cautious and watchful. As the inventory pressure of enterprises decreases, manufacturers have shown a reluctance to sell, and the overall market transaction atmosphere has increased. The willingness to maintain prices has increased, and in the short term, the operation is mainly narrow and strong.

3、 Future Market Forecast:

PET analysts from Business Society believe that there is still support in the cost aspect of the polyester market at present, The PET market is mainly driven by price increases, and the focus of negotiations is on strong adjustments. It is expected that the PET market will maintain a narrow upward trend in the short term, The mainstream price for PET water bottle grade is around 7200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for fiber grade is around 6900 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.63% compared to the same period last year. On May 16th, the chlor alkali index was 1002 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 40.73% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic caustic soda has stabilized this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-960 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is consolidating, with a mainstream market price of around 690-810 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 810-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. In the near future, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly volatile in the later stage. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has been consolidating, with some companies experiencing fluctuations in inventory. Downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand, with relatively lukewarm demand and relatively stable transactions.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10), there were a total of 4 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include hydrochloric acid (15.38%), light soda ash (1.95%), and PVC (1.37%); The main commodities falling are calcium carbide (-2.31%). The average increase and decrease this week was 2.46%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week, with downstream alumina mainly purchasing according to demand. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Last week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained stable. As of May 17th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 13570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was weak and stable. In terms of the spot market, prices for various brands were strong last week. However, due to limited release of buyer demand, there was still pressure on prices. However, the current price space for silicon factories is limited. At present, there are relatively few downstream procurement replenishment operations, so there was a release of post holiday replenishment orders last week. However, the sentiment of transaction pressure is still strong; However, the futures market is under pressure. Although the macro environment improved at the beginning of last week, it had no significant impact on the industrial silicon market. In addition, downstream polycrystalline silicon continued to have a weak market, and the market performance was very weak. Therefore, industrial silicon operated weakly and steadily last week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13200~13300 yuan/ton, with an average of 13250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14050 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of May 16th, there were 335 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall start-up rate of 44.85% and an increase of 11 furnaces compared to the previous week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, with more manufacturers in the northwest resuming production. At the same time, manufacturers in Sichuan continued to resume production. As the flood season approaches, the number of furnaces opened in the southwest will further increase, and the overall supply situation will increase.

In terms of inventory:

Last week, the inventory of industrial silicon slightly increased. As of May 17th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 379000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 106000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week’s month on month ratio, and the social delivery warehouse was 273000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week’s month on month ratio.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of oversupply of silicon materials and high corporate inventories, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. The upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is significant, and both upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises are in a high inventory stage. Currently, prices have shown irrational declines, but there is still a risk of oversupply in the later stage; At the same time, the United States imposing tariffs on photovoltaic cells and launching a dual anti investigation into Southeast Asia are not conducive to China’s photovoltaic cell exports. The current demand for terminal installation is relatively sluggish, and the competition between upstream and downstream may become more severe in the later stage. The demand for polysilicon is worrying.

Last week, the prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable, and the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 13550 yuan/ton. At present, the overall atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC site is mild, with the bottom of the organic silicon fluctuating, and the enterprise’s operation is stable. The procurement of industrial silicon is mainly based on demand. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the aluminum market is relatively optimistic, but there has been no active hoarding of industrial silicon procurement. Intermediary traders have reported that it is mainly based on rigid demand procurement, and prices are still being held down.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories in the southwest region continued to resume production last week, with production increasing gradually during the flood season. However, the current market trend is weakening, so the overall operating rate has improved but the increment is small, and the overall supply situation has slightly increased; On the demand side, the price of polycrystalline silicon has declined and the market for organic silicon has stabilized, showing signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. However, the release of demand is weak, but the impact on demand has narrowed after the release of bearish sentiment. The increase in social inventory results in a higher total inventory level. The supply and demand side, with strong supply and weak demand, is bearish on silicon prices. The market is under pressure and the futures market is weakening. However, there is support on the cost side, which is temporarily stable. Currently, industrial silicon prices are in the bottom range, and it is expected that industrial silicon will bottom out and stabilize next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isopropanol has fallen this week. The average price of isopropanol in China on Monday was 8930 yuan/ton, while on Friday it was 8900 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.34% during the week.

The market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. This week’s market situation is light, and downstream buyers are cautious and cautious. The upstream acetone price has been lowered, and the cost support for isopropanol is weak, with market prices following suit. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8500-8900 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 9000-9300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market has declined this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 8325 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8307.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. At present, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the trading atmosphere is not good.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week, with an overall decline. The average domestic propylene price on Monday was 6898.6 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 6788.6 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.59%. In the short term, there is not much change in supply and demand, and it is expected that propane will operate in a narrow range in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. The acetone market is declining, while the propylene market is declining. Cost support is weak, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not high. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will mainly operate steadily with a weak trend.

1、 Price trend: The PTFE market has maintained stable operation this week. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the market price of PTFE suspended pellets remained around 35000-50000 yuan/ton.

2、 Influencing factors: Recently, the market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in the raw material market has risen, and the price of fluorite has continued to rise. The high cost side remains under pressure. As of May 16th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid (export) for Shengyishe was 14150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (13800.00 yuan/ton). The benchmark price of Yingyishe fluorite is 3781.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream end: There is no favorable phenomenon in the downstream market, and there is insufficient purchasing sentiment, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the polytetrafluoroethylene market is in a sustained downturn.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The polytetrafluoroethylene analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the high prices of raw materials will support, downstream demand will be weak and continue to be sluggish, and the polytetrafluoroethylene market will maintain stable operation.

Precious metal prices have once again strengthened

The price of precious metal gold strengthened again on May 9th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 10, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 549.41 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.93% compared to the average market price of 544.36 yuan/gram on the first day after the holiday (May 6).

The trend of precious metal silver is similar to that of gold, and it has also rebounded after the holiday, with a stronger increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average silver market price on May 10, 2024 was 7340.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.61% compared to the average silver market price of 7017 yuan/kg on the first day after the holiday (May 6).

Market driven logic once again

1. The geopolitical tension in both directions continues, with Israel’s advance into Rafah, the situation escalates, and the market’s risk aversion strengthens.

2. The direction of the interest rate reduction cycle remains unchanged. The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, while other economic data showed a weakening of US inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s biased stance, leading to a resurgence of interest rate reduction expectations in the market.

3. The net purchasing trend of central banks around the world remains unchanged, with the Bank of Korea announcing its purchase of gold in early May.

Short term precious metal prices may experience strong fluctuations

The previous game point was the contradiction between medium – and long-term trends and short-term super inflation. After a brief decline, the profit taking capital market weakened, and the market began to trade news of inflation and interest rate cuts with fluctuations. It is expected that precious metal prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3616 yuan/ton, and on May 4th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

The supply of domestically produced bauxite is still in a tight state. In the situation where there is a shortage of domestic ore, alumina plants choose to supplement imported ore to maintain production. Recently, there have been reports that the product quality has not met the standards, and the quality of imported mineral products is questionable, resulting in the inability to release alumina production capacity.

In terms of supply and demand

After the holiday, due to the low inventory of Shanxi Xin alumina large factory, the quotation was firm, and some intermediaries were under great pressure to execute long orders, forcing them to purchase spot goods at high prices, resulting in a rapid increase in market prices. The aluminum oxide inventory of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the north is already at a low level, and the demand for replenishment is evident. Large alumina factories in Shandong and Hebei are also maintaining long-term orders and have no surplus to sell spot goods to the market. Combined with the expected resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum plants in the southwest region in the second quarter, it is in a nationwide general upward trend.

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that the spot price of alumina will continue to rise next week, and we will pay attention to the resumption of enterprise production and changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the phenolic resin market is temporarily stable after the holiday. As of May 9th, the mainstream price of domestic phenolic resin (2123) was 10275 yuan/ton, an increase of 325 yuan or 3.27% compared to before the holiday, and a decrease of 300 yuan or 2.84% compared to April 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Cost side: The concentrated release of bearish news in the early May crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil. International crude oil has experienced a significant decline. As of today, the mainstream price of phenol is 7995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan or 1.84% compared to May 1st. The inventory value of Jiangyin phenol port is 20000 tons, with weak cost support, but there is not much pressure on the supply of phenol traders.

Supply and demand side:

After the holiday, stability will be the main focus on the supply side, and downstream enterprises will start construction one after another. With abundant on-site inventory, the support from the demand side will gradually strengthen.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, the cost support is weak, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly rebounded. However, there is ample inventory, and it is expected that the phenolic resin market will be mainly weak in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to the upstream phenol market dynamics.