According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5300 yuan/ton to 5282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 14.80%. The domestic edible ethanol market prices have slightly adjusted, with a narrow range of strong raw material corn prices and strong cost support, and prices have remained stable after rising. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on stocking up for urgent needs, resulting in lukewarm transactions.

In terms of cost, the overall fluctuation of corn prices is relatively strong. Traders have started to release some of their goods, maintaining a dynamic balance between effective supply in the market and downstream demand, and prices have remained volatile and strong. Feed companies have started using wheat, but there has not been a widespread substitution effect yet. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, and most traders still have a strong willingness to raise prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

Supply side, stable operation of supply side. The maintenance of the biological fermentation ethanol plant is concentrated in April, and the on-site supply side is stable and organized. The stable operation of cassava corn ethanol supply side. Coal to ethanol production: Anhui Carbon Xin and Hengxin facilities are temporarily shut down, while other facilities are producing steadily. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

Future forecast: The price of raw material corn is fluctuating and stabilizing, and cost support still exists; With the support of previous contracts, production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The mentality of the demand side is cautious, with a focus on purchasing essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for hydrogen peroxide has steadily declined since March, with prices continuously decreasing. On March 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton. On March 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.23% in price.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market, weak decline

Since March, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been sluggish, and the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers has rebounded. Supply pressure remains, and hydrogen peroxide prices continue to bottom out. The average price in the domestic market has fallen to around 700 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 50 yuan/ton. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken, with average market transactions and upward pressure, constantly declining.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry remained poor, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply was suppressing. The future market will continue to decline mainly.

This week (3.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 1.0%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, some units in the northern region have undergone maintenance, easing supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Temporary maintenance of the device to alleviate supply pressure

From the supply side, this week, the supply has been basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The production of equipment in the main northern production areas has slightly decreased. This week, the Hualu equipment malfunctioned and the supply decreased. In addition, there is not much supply pressure in Hebei, Anhui, and the two lakes regions. Prices generally increased during the week, but stabilized over the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices by over 100 yuan/ton this week. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, there has been little improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia, with the main reason being the decline in upstream natural gas. In addition, the downstream sector has seen more declines than gains, indicating that the main reason for the rebound in liquid ammonia prices is the favorable supply side, and there is no significant support from the demand side; In addition, especially in maintaining essential industrial demand. Downstream urea prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 0.11% this week.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that the expected increase in liquid ammonia prices this week is only a short-term behavior, and the trading atmosphere slightly cooled down over the weekend. Hualu plant is expected to resume work on Saturday and production next week, and the expected increase in supply will put pressure on ammonia prices. In addition, there are no bright spots on the demand side, and downstream factories have insufficient operating rates, which will suppress the shipment speed of ammonia plants. It is difficult for liquid ammonia to maintain its upward trend in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6760 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it was 6880 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.78%.

The market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the main factories in Shandong stopped production, and the ex factory prices increased. Confidence in the market improved, and holders of goods pushed up prices one after another. However, downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and there was insufficient follow-up on the demand side, resulting in limited trading volume. The high-end price of isopropanol has been lowered over the weekend. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6800-6900 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price has fallen. The average price of acetone at the beginning of the week was 6547.5 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6455 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.41%. At present, the performance of on-site orders is mediocre, and the weakening of costs has intensified the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acetone market will not see any improvement in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market has slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, the market average was 6813.25 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6865.75 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.77%. At present, the inventory of propylene is low, and downstream purchases should be made at a lower price according to demand. It is expected that propylene will be stable, medium to strong in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the current drop in acetone prices is due to insufficient cost support. In addition, the downstream market has poor purchasing enthusiasm, with light trading and a focus on wait-and-see measures. It is expected that in the short term, the isopropanol market will be mainly weakly consolidated, and more attention will be paid to changes in the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

1. Shaking downward

The mainstream transaction price has fluctuated in the range of 8000-8500 yuan/ton recently, with a decline of about 10% -15% from the high point at the beginning of the year, and the market transaction center is gradually shifting downwards.

Low end supply (especially in the East China region) has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers are offering discounts for shipments, exacerbating market bearish sentiment. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

2. Regional differentiation

Main sales regions such as East China and South China have experienced significant price declines due to high supply pressure and weak demand; The North China region is relatively resistant to decline due to local rigid demand support.

2、 Core factors affecting prices

1. Continued weakness on the demand side

Downstream industries such as coatings and textiles: dragged down by the sluggish real estate market and reduced export orders, the operating rate only maintains 50-70%, and procurement is mainly based on small orders for essential needs.

Adhesive industry: The demand in the packaging sector is recovering seasonally, but the increment is limited, making it difficult to reverse the overall weak demand.

2. Increased supply pressure

The industry’s operating rate has rebounded to over 75% (such as the load increase of large factories such as Satellite Chemical and Yangba), coupled with some new production capacity trials (such as the addition of a 100000 ton plant in Shandong), the market spot is loose. Social inventory increased by about 15% month on month, and manufacturers’ willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory increased.

3. Limited cost support

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates with crude oil, and currently the arrival price of propylene in East China is about 6500-6800 yuan/ton, which provides weak support for the cost of acrylic acid. The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene has narrowed to 1200-1500 yuan/ton, and some companies are approaching the breakeven line, but it has not yet triggered large-scale production cuts. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6813.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

3、 Prediction of Future Price Trends

1. Short term (1-2 months): weak continuation, bottom oscillation

Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, coupled with loose supply, prices may continue to decline to the range of 7800-8200 yuan/ton. If the significant rebound in crude oil prices drives up the cost of propylene, or if downstream centralized replenishment occurs, it may temporarily halt the decline, but the rebound space is limited.

2. Mid term (3-6 months): marginal improvement, but pressure still exists

Potential benefits: The implementation of domestic stable growth policies (such as infrastructure and consumer stimulus) may drive a rebound in demand for coatings and textiles; Overseas economic recovery may boost export orders.

Risk point: Concentrated release of new production capacity (expected to exceed 500000 tons in the second half of the year), or suppression of price rebound.

4、 Operational suggestions

Traders: prioritize digesting existing inventory and avoid hoarding; Pay attention to low-priced sources and replenish small orders on dips.

Downstream enterprises: Purchase on demand, with forward orders within 3 months to reduce the risk of cost fluctuations.

Production enterprises: flexibly adjust loads based on profits, strengthen binding with downstream long-term contract customers, and reduce pressure on spot sales.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is still in a short-term downward cycle dominated by “weak demand+high supply”, and prices may further bottom out. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to observe the effectiveness of policy stimulus and the pace of overseas demand recovery. If the supply and demand structure improves, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound around the end of the year. Market participants are advised to maintain a low inventory strategy, with a focus on cost side fluctuations and downstream replenishment signals.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the domestic PC market continued the previous weak trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 28th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16116.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to early February.

cause analysis

On the supply side, in February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 77% at the end of January to over 82%. The weekly average production has increased at a high level, reaching over 65000 tons. The on-site supply is very abundant, and some manufacturers have set new prices at the factory. In addition, the inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions gradually exhausted before and after the holiday. Although the upstream acetone has increased within the month, the confidence of the industry in cost value has been strengthened. However, the demand side recovered slowly after the holiday, coupled with an increase in the load of the bisphenol A industry, relaxed supply, increased resistance to price increases, and entered a consolidation market. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is generally moderate.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the market as a whole has continued to maintain a light pre holiday level in February. As of the end of February, the return of downstream factories to vacation is still slow, and the load increase of end enterprises is not significant. Due to poor on-site stocking, the purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, and there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand imbalance. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation is basically continuing the light performance after the holiday. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market fell at a low level in February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently weak and volatile, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The signs of slow recovery in downstream demand remain, with poor new orders and a deepening trend of supply-demand contradictions. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on February 26th: 15180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On February 26th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable. At present, the raw material side remains at a high level, and the cost support of titanium dioxide enterprises is obvious. After titanium dioxide companies sent letters to raise prices one after another, market confidence has been boosted. At present, downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Further observation is needed on the implementation of new order prices.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on February 24th was 963 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% compared to the average price of 938 yuan/ton on February 17th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have shown a strong upward trend. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of their internal equipment is at a high level. Downstream urgent procurement, stable demand for urea, and strong market transaction atmosphere. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, downstream procurement tends to be cautious, and distributors operate cautiously. As of February 24th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 950 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 965-995 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate market has stabilized after rising, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is good. At present, the market demand is good, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, the market’s cautious attitude increases. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be dominated by strong price consolidation and operation.

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Supply side: The market situation has remained stable this week, with enterprises actively starting production, and some regions experiencing tight supply of goods.

On the raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable this week, but the cost remained under high pressure. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

Recently, the price trend of raw material sulfuric acid in the market has risen, providing favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 430.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.69% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant quotas are abundant, and downstream refrigerant companies may increase their procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in price increases and strong support from the demand side for refrigerants.

Market forecast: The recent rise in raw material prices has driven the hydrofluoric acid market to a stronger trend. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly in the future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate slightly declined in mid February. As of February 17th, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 78100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 2.11% from 79780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 74800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.35% from 76600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The significant growth on the supply side has driven down prices

After the holiday, the news of the resumption of production projects by top enterprises in Yichun area has been basically implemented, and our company has also analyzed the incident:

Business Society: What is the impact of Ningde Times’ resumption of lithium mine production in Jiangxi on the price of lithium carbonate

It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate at the end of lithium mica will significantly increase after mid February.

In terms of imports, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in January 2025 was 25600 tons, of which 19100 tons were exported to China, a month on month increase of 43.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.7%. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will further increase in February and March.

Weak demand with no significant growth

The production of positive electrode materials and battery terminals decreased in February. The month on month growth of positive electrode and battery production in March was within the range of 10% -20%, but due to the small production base in February, there was no substantial year-on-year increase in production in March.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are weak, with prices falling and no positive news in the market. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.