1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on November 14, the average price of domestic LNG was 7793.33 yuan / ton, up 636 yuan / ton compared with 6856.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 9.29% during the week and 104.63% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market first fell and then rose, and then started to rise in an all-round way. The rebound was mainly due to the controllable inventory of the liquid plant, the improvement of shipping atmosphere and the increase of demand after the continuous price reduction sales in the early stage. At the beginning of the week, there was heavy snow in many places in the north, and the traffic was not smooth. The delivery of liquid plants in some areas was blocked. The price decreased by 10.63% on August and September, and the price was as low as about 6700 yuan / ton, which was the bottom of the week; On Wednesday, the logistics gradually returned to normal, and the demand for urban fuel increased. The shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant improved, and the price support mentality was strong. Some regions began to rise tentatively, and the liquid plant with high quotation continued to make a slight correction; Since Thursday, the radius of rising areas has expanded, of which Shaanxi has extended a one-day increase of 780 yuan / ton; On Friday, the rise of liquid price did not decrease, most liquid plants had two price adjustment operations, and the news of a new round of feed gas auction once again boosted the market. At the weekend, the domestic LNG market continued to rise. At present, 7150-7600 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7470-7820 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 7450-7800 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7320-7650 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7500-7800 yuan / ton in Hebei, 7710-7800 yuan / ton in Henan and 7800-8200 yuan / ton in Shandong. The price of inlet gas is about 7640-8300 yuan / ton, and the prices of domestic gas and imported gas rise.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from August 23 to November 14, 2021, the domestic liquefied natural gas showed mixed gains and losses in the cycle, but more gains and less losses. It decreased by 8.66% in the week of November 1, and then increased by 7.44% in the week of November 8, which basically recovered the decline and continued to rise this week.

region Specifications November 14th November 8th Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 7150-7600 6400-6650 + 750/+950

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 7450-7820 6350-7630 + 1100/+190

Shanxi liquified natural gas 7450-7800 6850-7200 + 500/+600

Ningxia liquified natural gas 7320-7500 6730-7650 + 590/-150

Hebei liquified natural gas 7500-7800 7100-7600 + 400/+200

Henan liquified natural gas 7710-7800 7000-7450 + 710/+350

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the methanol market offer price in southern Shandong is around 3100 yuan / ton, the factory provides cash exchange, Linyi receives the local offer price and delivers it to cash exchange around 3000 yuan / ton, and the logistics offer is not available yet. The atmosphere is average, most of them wait and see. The methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province negotiated to rise to 2860-2950 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. The transaction is general and there are different views. The methanol market in central Shandong increased to 2860-2950 yuan / ton through negotiation and sent to cash exchange. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong stabilized to 3200-3300 yuan / ton, and the factory provided cash exchange. The transaction was poor.

For liquid ammonia, the business society believes that the supply of liquid ammonia is expected to change little in the near future, which is still a loose pattern. Demand may improve, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer is expected to increase in the middle and late days. Urea may improve, which is expected to drive the liquid ammonia Market out of the trough. It is more likely that the price will bottom out, but it remains to be seen whether it can rise strongly.

On November 12, the domestic urea market was slightly stable, the upstream coal price fell slightly recently, and the cost support was weakened. In terms of demand, the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, industrial demand is just needed, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is good, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level, and most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, urea cost support is weakened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is insufficient..

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: at present, the market trading is good, the shipment of liquid plants turns smoothly, and the price support mentality is strong. In addition, the raw gas auction continues to boost the market, and the domestic LNG market rebounds upward. However, after the continuous rise, considering the downstream receiving capacity, the increase is expected to narrow, and there may be a risk of local reduction.