According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 12th to 16th, the domestic ethanol price fell to 5411 yuan/ton, with a price decrease of 0.26% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.14%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.91%. The domestic ethanol market has experienced a narrow decline, with slight regional differences. The main factories may experience reduced production, inventory pressure or profit sharing logistics, and there is a possibility of price decline.
On the cost side, the upward trend of corn prices is supported by high corn ethanol costs. The increase in on-site ethanol supply and the continued positive demand may further boost the possibility of ethanol price increases. However, the overall upward space is limited, with high costs and difficulty in improving profits. Bioethanol still operates at a loss. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethanol production capacity remains at 61.67%. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu and chemical industry improved, the terminal demand was boosted, and the overall demand rose. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, there is a possibility of a decline in the operation of ethanol factories due to cost impact. However, based on the current inventory and negative market sentiment, as well as limited downstream demand, ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that there is still a possibility of a short-term decline in the ethanol market.