1、 Price trend
Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride rose sharply in September
According to the data of business agency, as of September 30, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 13600.00 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of 14.29% compared with 11900.00 yuan / ton on September 1.
On September 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 128.12, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 150.33% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The market price of maleic anhydride continued to rise in September, and the rise of international crude oil in September led to the basic rise of domestic chemical prices. Under the influence of local power restriction policies, the operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is down, the resin market is rising, and it is mainly needed to purchase. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 13000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 13000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 13500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 13800 yuan / ton.
The international crude oil price rose in September. On the one hand, after Hurricane IDA passed through, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, which made the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery rate of American refineries was faster than that of crude oil. Therefore, the fear of tight supply heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term.
According to the monitoring of business society, the hydrogenated benzene market showed a “V” trend in September 2021. The ex factory price in North China was 7575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.61%. In September, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene increased 7 times and decreased 4 times, with a cumulative increase of 1050 yuan / ton and a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton. As of September 29, it was 7700 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical was 7650 yuan / ton. In September, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rebounded. The high price of pure benzene in the early stage led to the rise of hydrogenated benzene market. Enterprises started to pick up and actively produced. The starting and parking cost of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was lower than that of pure benzene, and most manufacturers arranged production according to their profits. In terms of n-butane, Shandong price is 5470 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that: at present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic market is limited, some factories are pre sold, there is no inventory pressure in the factories, and the supply and demand is good. However, recently, due to the impact of film restrictions in Jiangsu, the start-up of resin is reduced, and the market wait-and-see mood is increased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in October.