Recent urea price trend
As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased this week, from 2450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2486.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.50%, an increase of 45.53% year-on-year over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 115.66 on September 3.
Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand was enhanced, and urea supply decreased
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2470 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea will not be quoted this week, but it is actually discussed, and the overall rise; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 5910.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6026.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.97%, a year-on-year increase of 151.81% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1111.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1157.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.16%, a year-on-year increase of 108.28% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 3850.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.49%, a year-on-year increase of 31.13% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose this week, from 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14500.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.35%.
From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.
Urea prices are bullish in the future
In the middle and early September, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.