In the third quarter, the Recycled PVC was stable and small, and only part of it was expected to fluctuate; in the fourth quarter, the Recycled PVC was still faced with regional supply shortage. This paper will focus on the analysis of the third quarter performance and the fourth quarter forecast.
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After experiencing the steady rise of hard materials in the second quarter and the mutual rise and fall of soft materials, the Recycled PVC market in the third quarter of 2020 has entered a long-term sustained strong trend with little change.
In terms of soft particles, most recycling manufacturers normally produce and supply sufficient supplies. Although the supply of some raw materials, such as door curtains and steel hose, was a little tight in late August, the overall downstream demand was weak. The purchase of downstream manufacturers was limited, and the on-site shipment was poor, and the inventory increased. In mid August, some of the prices were above 5000 yuan / T, and the particles were under pressure, while others remained stable.
However, after the price cut, the deal did not improve, and some manufacturers of recycled soft products stopped work late. At the end of September, due to the shortage of raw materials in some parts of Hebei Province, as well as the positive signs of downstream exports, the price of soft products rose and the shipment improved. The broken white curtain rose to 5000 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than the end of the second quarter, and 400 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year.
In terms of hard crushing materials, Recycled PVC manufacturers are in normal production, and the supply in most regions is stable. For example, in the first half of July, some regions such as Dingzhou and Wuhan are in short supply due to the shortage of raw materials. Since the end of last ten days, the number of raw materials and broken materials in this area gradually increased. The overall demand is good and the on-site shipment is smooth.
In the first half of the third quarter, most manufacturers reported that the shipment in the third quarter was fair, but the shipment volume decreased compared with the same period last year, and the transactions were concentrated among old customers; only a few manufacturers reported that the supply was in short supply this year, and new customers’ inquiries were more positive. After the middle of September, some manufacturers also reported that the demand has become weak in the near future.
In the third quarter, the PVC market price showed an upward trend, and the price fluctuation range was relatively reduced. Taking East China SG-5 as an example, the lowest price in the third quarter was 6228 yuan / ton, the highest price was 6725 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase was 497 yuan / ton.
In the third quarter, the supply began to increase gradually, and the arrival of imported goods increased significantly. There was still a part of the demand for rush work, but the demand for rush work was gradually coming to an end, and with the hot weather, some demand showed a slight month on month decrease. The overall contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not large, inventory de stocking is slowing down obviously, and there are differences between long and short markets, but the upward trend of prices has not been broken.
In the first ten days of July, the market experienced a wave of relatively obvious pull-up under the support of abundant liquidity and good macro-economy. However, from the end of July to the first ten days of September, the overall price was mainly fluctuated. Since the end of September, with the support of terminal stock and export order growth exceeding the expectation, the price has risen again.
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Seasonal forecast
The main factors influencing the market of Recycled PVC in the next quarter are economic situation, supply and demand, etc.
Economic situation: at present, local governments at all levels have also made plans and plans to tackle key problems with all their strength, and sprint for the fourth quarter to ensure the completion of the annual targets and tasks. Judging from the focus of the work in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle, expanding effective investment, promoting consumption expansion and quality improvement, and fully releasing the potential of economic development are still the key tasks.
Supply of Recycled PVC: at present, most of the Recycled PVC manufacturers are in normal production, and there is no change in the short term, so the probability of active shutdown is small. In some regions, the supply of hard and soft products is still insufficient, and it is expected that the supply of goods in some regions will be tight.
Demand for Recycled PVC: the seasonal demand is flat, there is a certain rigid demand support, downstream manufacturers are expected to purchase mainly on demand.
In summary, the supply and demand side of Recycled PVC has a greater impact, and it is expected that the Recycled PVC in the fourth quarter will show a stable, medium and narrow plate situation.
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