Weak gas market in September, waiting for favorable support

September ushered in the traditional sales peak season of the gas market, but the market showed the market was not prosperous in the peak season, and the overall trend of the gas market was weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the LPG market showed a continuous downward trend in September. On September 1, the average price of domestic LPG market was 3200.00 yuan / ton, and on September 24, the average price was 2876.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.10% in the month and a decrease of 24.30% compared with the same period last year. On September 1, the average price of domestic natural gas market was 2406.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on September 24 was 2406.67 yuan / ton. The price was flat at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 2.35%, and the price fell by 15.95% compared with the same period last year.



In September, the overall trend of LNG fell first and then rose. In the first half of September, natural gas first continued the decline in August and continued to be weak. Although the traditional off-season in August has passed and the traditional sales peak season in September has come, with the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the market supply has become more and more abundant, the situation of supply exceeding demand is still the same, the market trading is not warm and the downstream demand is insufficient to follow up, and the liquid price continues to decline.


Until the middle of September, the natural gas market ushered in a stop fall rise. Until September 24, the average market price had returned to the level before the fall at the beginning of the month. After the middle of the year, the liquid factory adjusted the quotation in a narrow range according to its own delivery situation, among which Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places have a strong atmosphere of adjustment, but the increase is not big. After continuous price reduction in the early stage, the current inventory pressure is not big, the shipment situation has been improved, the superimposed weather turns cool, the bad factors in the demand off-season gradually fade, the market trading is stable, and the market stops falling and rising. However, due to the abundant market supply, the liquid price has been restrained and there is no significant increase.


Looking at the LPG civil market, the trend is not as optimistic as that of natural gas. In September, the focus of the civil gas market shifted downward, and the range was more obvious. In the first ten days of September, the civil market of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) started its downward route, and the decline was more and more large. Due to the continuous weak decline of international crude oil, the news brought obvious pressure on the LPG market. With the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually drops, the weather turns cool, and the terminal demand is expected to increase. However, due to the market status, the terminal consumption is still weak, most of the downstream purchasing capacity is insufficient, and the shipping atmosphere of manufacturers is not good. In the LPG market supply changes little, the production is more adequate, it is difficult to change the decline. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased. Continuously reduce the price and give priority to shipment. The prices of some manufacturers have fallen below 3000 yuan / ton.



In the middle of September, the LPG market finally ushered in the first rise in the month, but the market was too short and disappeared in only two days. Then the market went down again. Negative factors dominated the month, LPG market rebound fruitless, forced to go down. The main reason for this rebound comes from international crude oil. Due to the sharp decline of US crude oil and gasoline stocks, the superposition of Hurricane “Sally” forced the United States to block a large number of oil production, and international oil prices rose sharply. The news brought a significant boost to the market. Shandong LPG rose slightly in line with the trend, and rose 0.91% on September 16-18. But only two days after the rally, it went down again.


But the LPG market rebound failed, the main reason for its rebound failure is terminal demand. In September, with the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually turns cool, and the terminal market is expected to improve. However, the demand this year is slower than that in previous years. The current September is about to pass, and the market has not yet improved significantly. The downstream demand has not increased, and the main consumption of inventory is more. Most of them are cautious and enthusiastic about entering the market. And the market supply of liquefied gas has little change, and the output is relatively sufficient. Due to the poor delivery situation and the gradual accumulation of inventory, manufacturers were forced to lower the price to stimulate downstream market entry.


According to the data, this year’s gas market is not better than last year’s market. The average price of LNG or LPG has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. The main reason for the sluggish gas market in September this year is that market supply exceeds demand. In the autumn, the weather gradually turns cool, and the terminal demand is expected to increase. However, in September, due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, more downstream enterprises need to be replenished, and the market atmosphere is general. Moreover, the current gas market supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market is difficult to change.


However, the trend of natural gas market is clearer than that of liquefied gas (LPG) for civil use, with an increase in the latter ten days of September. As the weather turns cool, the effect of negative factors in the off-season is weakening, the market trading is relatively stable, and the shipment in some regions turns smooth, and the price rises. However, due to the uncertain trend of international crude oil price, the domestic LPG market has limited support. September will soon pass, and the LPG market is still weak. Market supply is sufficient, downstream demand has no obvious change, manufacturers’ shipment situation is flat, which brings obvious restraint to the rise. At present, the gas market is approaching the double festival. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream storage and replenishment demand, the market transaction atmosphere may be improved, and the yin10 is coming, the weather will continue to cool down, and the terminal demand is still expected to improve. It is expected that the gas market will still have upward trend in October.


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