1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the weak operation of domestic soda ash this month. The average market price in East China at the beginning of the month was about 1283.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 1266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.3% and 31.57% compared with the same period last year. On June 29, the commodity index of light soda ash was 64.96, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 44.88% from the highest point of 117.86 point (2017-11-21), and increased by 2.87% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Market analysis
According to the business agency, at present, the basic maintenance of soda ash enterprises has been completed, only a few enterprises still have maintenance plans in July, and some enterprises have good inventory clearance. The main market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1300 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda is 1350-1400 yuan / ton. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1050-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1150-1250 yuan / ton. The light and stable price of light soda ash in East China is running The current mainstream market price is about 1050-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1150-1250 yuan / ton.
At present, the mainstream price of domestic light soda ash and heavy soda ash Market
Regional price (yuan / ton)
North China 1200-1300 0
East China 1050-1250 0
Huazhong 1000-1100 0
Regional price (yuan / ton)
North China 1350-14000
East China 1150-1250 0
Central China 1100-1150 0
In terms of raw materials: in June, some of the two soda enterprises have completed the maintenance, and the downstream soda enterprises may purchase more industrial salt. However, due to the impact of high inventory, the supply and demand of raw salt and soda ash are still in a state of contradiction, and the market is full of wait-and-see atmosphere.
Demand: according to the current glass industry capacity utilization rate year-on-year decline, market demand accumulation. In the short term, the current downstream inventory is sufficient and still needs time to digest. The soda ash market is still mainly purchased on demand.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 25th week of 2020 (6.22-6.26), there are 0 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 3 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that fell were light soda (- 1.30%) and PVC (- 0.40%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.34%.
3、 Future forecast
The domestic light soda ash market is weak, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream market demand is not significantly improved, the market transaction is general, it is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The soda ash analysts of the business club believe that: in the near future, the maintenance and inventory removal of soda enterprises is good, and the effect of de stocking of glass enterprises is also good. In late June, the inventory of some enterprises has been maintained at a low level, and the price has begun to rise slightly. However, the overall inventory is still large, so the short-term soda ash market will still run in a weak market.
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