1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China was about 1550 yuan / ton, down 25.48% year on year. On January 18, the commodity index of light soda ash was 79.49, flat with yesterday, down 32.56% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.87% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is weak and stable, the market continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere is flat. Domestic mainstream market: the overall trend of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream soda needs to be purchased, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable before the festival. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly in need of rigid procurement, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable before the festival. The overall trend of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1550-1600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more narrow in the later period.

Industry chain: the demand of downstream domestic glass, sodium metabisulfite and sodium styrofoam is not good. With the gradual progress of Spring Festival, the market inquiry and investment atmosphere gradually turns weak, and the overall shipment of the factory is slow. At present, the stable shipment is the main thing.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 2nd week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (0.60%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 0.85%). This week’s average was – 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, with the approaching of Spring Festival, the market atmosphere is falling down, the downstream market intention is general, the transaction is not good, the supplier’s quotation maintains stable shipment, and it is expected that the soda ash market will maintain stable operation before the festival, depending on the inventory situation and downstream market demand.