1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 3, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5150 yuan / ton, down 2.57% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4965 yuan / ton. After a five-day shock adjustment, by Friday, the price was 5015 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 1.01%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of January 2, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 67.60%, down 0.72% compared with Friday.

At present, the commissioning of Hengli Petrochemical glycol unit has been completed, and it has been stopped waiting for the ethylene link to be opened.

As of January 2, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 415000 tons, down 11500 tons or 2.85% from last Thursday, down 21000 tons or 5.33% from this Monday. Among them, there are 188000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 11000 tons lower than last Thursday; 85000 tons in Ningbo; 39000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu; 68000 tons in Taicang.

According to the news, from January 2 to January 8, it is estimated that 146000 tons will arrive at the main port of East China, about 80000 tons at Zhangjiagang wharf, about 31000 tons at Taicang and about 27000 tons at Ningbo.

In the downstream, polyester market gradually shut down for holidays. At present, the unit operation rate is 79.81%, and the production and sales ratio is 47.00%. The short-term supply is just needed, and the middle-line demand is weak.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the shipment of glycol port has increased, so although the cargo has arrived at the port, the inventory still has decreased. In the later stage, the new equipment will be started one after another, and the arrival of cargo will increase, which will affect the market confidence. Downstream polyester gradually entered the pre Festival demand reduction period, the operating rate will continue to decline, glycol price lack of support. Combined with the above factors, glycol analysts believe that glycol prices will face shock adjustment in the short term.