1、 Price data

As of December 27, the average ex factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 6343.33 yuan / ton, up 0.53% from 6310.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 6300 yuan / ton.

The naphtha commodity index on December 27 was 78.29, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.71% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 85.35% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, and trading was basically stable.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 60.44 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 61.68 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by 2.05%; Brent crude oil is 66.14 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 67.92 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by 2.69%. At present, the trade relations between China and the United States have eased, the global economic slowdown concerns have subsided, and OPEC countries will continue to reduce production. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market fell in shock this week, down about 1.07% as of Friday. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5500-5550 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic isomeric xylene market fell back, down about 0.96% as of Friday. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5750 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic PX price trend is stable, and the market price is about 6700 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are nine commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (3.12%), Brent crude oil (2.69%) and petroleum coke (2.08%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products falling are LNG (- 6.30%) and methanol (- 0.85%). This week’s average was 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business club, naphtha refining increased slightly this week, and the international crude oil price continued to rise this week. Some suppliers prepared goods in advance, some refineries destocked and delivered goods actively. At present, the market just needs to be strong. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will stabilize in the near future, and some refineries will fluctuate slightly, with the average price range of 6200-6400 yuan / ton.