I. price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, this week’s gasoline and diesel prices first fell and then rose, slightly rising overall. The domestic gasoline price is 6412 yuan / ton, 0.10% higher than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price is 6504 yuan / ton, 1.81% higher than last week’s diesel price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil price is rising, the domestic gasoline market demand is weak, resulting in the weak rise of gasoline price, and the domestic refined oil market is still strong in diesel and weak in gasoline.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil market was boosted by good news, and the crude oil price continued to rise. The WTI crude oil futures price rose by more than 4% this week. From the news point of view, OPEC’s firm production reduction stimulated the recovery of oil market sentiment; and last week, the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 1.7 million barrels. This is the first decline in inventory in six weeks. This week, the international crude oil price, driven by the good news, ushered in a short-term upward trend.

Market: at 24:00 on October 21, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel oil decreased by 150 yuan and 145 yuan per ton respectively. However, driven by the rise of crude oil price, the domestic refined oil market saw a rise this week. In terms of gasoline, the demand side of the gasoline market continues to be weak, and gasoline shipments from refineries have been weak. Although crude oil has been boosted, the price increase is average. In terms of diesel oil, it is still the relative peak season of diesel oil demand. Oil companies such as infrastructure, mining and outdoor engineering still form a certain support for diesel oil. With the help of the rise of crude oil, the rise of diesel oil price is also expanding, which is far higher than the rise of gasoline price. At present, the domestic refined oil market continues to be strong in diesel and weak in steam.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that the price of international crude oil market is only temporarily rising, the demand for diesel oil is supported by the downstream, and the demand for gasoline market is weak. It is expected that the trend of strong diesel and weak gasoline in the oil product market will continue next week.