I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 bottomed out this week. On October 14, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 13900 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (18 days), the average price was 13933.33 yuan / ton, up 0.24% in the week, down 24.68% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the market price of R22 in refrigerant market increased slightly, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream was weak and consolidated, the cost support for refrigerant was weakened, major air-conditioning manufacturers came out of the maintenance period one after another, the demand was increased, in addition, the refrigerant was affected by quota, the market supply was not much, and the manufacturers’ awareness of firm price was enhanced. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer starts high, the transaction atmosphere has improved, and the industry is optimistic. According to the data monitoring of Yishe society, as of October 18, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16000 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. is 13300 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated in 12500 yuan / ton – 16000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in South China is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in North China is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility. The domestic market price of upstream product trichloromethane has fallen to a low level. At present, the overall market supply is abundant, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business association, the support of R22 raw material end is weak, the load of terminal start-up has slightly increased, and the demand has improved. At present, some manufacturers have maintenance plans, and under the quota limit, traders have the sense of hoarding. It is expected that R22 will continue to increase its intention in the short term, but the space is limited.