Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic toluene Market broke the ice this week, the market warmed up, the price was higher than last week, the price of enterprises was stable at the beginning of the week, and increased at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5250 yuan per ton per week, and at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5299 yuan per ton per week, with a weekly increase of 0.93%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: The market price of xylene was stable in the early part of this week. Due to the influence of crude oil, the price went up on the weekend. At present, the main market turnover is around 5450 yuan/ton, and xylene stopped falling and rising. Port stocks in East China are around 65,000 tons, down about 97,000 tons from 47,700 tons on Thursday, June 6. Some downstream units were put into operation in July, and the demand side in June is still the reason that restricts the rise of toluene price.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, oil prices rose first and then fell this week, volatility is still large. Brent crude oil prices have been volatile in the vicinity of $60/ton for nearly half a month, and the market is very wait-and-see. Brent crude oil ranges from $60.04 to $63.29 per ton. The weekly low price appears on June 13 and the weekly amplitude is about 5.14%.

Downstream, the domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%, more than 50% of products need to be imported, PX external closing price maintains low, domestic PX market price trend is temporarily stable; OX market, constrained by downstream demand, terminal inventory consumption is slow, industry profitability is at the edge of the break-even line, overall neighbouring benzol Market weakening, the future neighbouring benzol Market weak and stable. There was no significant improvement in overall demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that in general, the toluene market is expected to remain volatile in the next two weeks. Next week, the focus will be on whether US crude oil can sustain a $50/barrel rebound. It is doubtful that US crude oil lacks the continuity of a real positive rebound. Under the pressure of pessimistic expectations in the macro market, the road to a rebound in oil prices is bumpy. The downstream PX valuation is about to change month. It is expected that the pressure of price decline will be greater. The demand side is still the reason that restricts the rise of toluene price.