Middle East crude oil ministers worry: China’s oil demand slowdown will not be conducive to oil prices

On Monday, Bahrain and Oman crude oil ministers said that China’s demand for oil has slowed due to the tight international trade situation and has had an impact on oil prices.

Middle East Oil Minister worried that Bahraini crude oil minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said in an interview with CNBC that there are risks in current oil demand:

“Do demand continue to be as strong as before? Obviously, if trade issues continue, it will affect demand in a negative way.”

Oman crude oil minister Mohammed bin Hamad Al Rumhy also mentioned that the current tight trade situation has led to a decline in China’s demand for oil, which has not received sufficient attention from the market. Now, they should not only pay attention to the supply side, but what happens when Iran stops supplying? At the same time, it is also concerned about the demand side, that is, China will reduce the consumption of oil, and what impact will it have?

He added that many people agree with him that oil demand will be affected by trade frictions:

“I think if trade divergence increases, the reduction in demand will not be conducive to oil prices.”

However, Reuters quoted Carsten Fritsch, senior commodities analyst at Commerzbank, as saying that although trade tensions may slow Asian oil demand, a slowdown in demand will easily offset the decline in Iranian crude oil supply.

And some analysts believe that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will continue to adjust the supply of crude oil to ensure the balance of supply and demand in the global oil market.

It is worth noting that oil prices have remained stable over the past two years, with current oil prices ranging from $70 to $80 per barrel, thanks in large part to the production cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

China’s demand for oil slows down In January this year, data from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that China’s average daily crude oil imports in 2017 were 8.4 million barrels per day, surpassing the US’s 7.9 million barrels per day. Become the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Among them, 56% of China’s crude oil imports come from OPEC countries.

According to the 2017 annual report of the Central Bank of Oman, China has been the largest exporter of crude oil in Oman for 10 consecutive years, and its export volume has more than doubled in 10 years.

However, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in August showed that China’s crude oil import growth rate was 3.68% in July this year, and 11.81% in the same period of last year. From January to July this year, China imported 261 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Compared with last year’s increase of 13.6%, the growth rate of China’s crude oil imports has dropped sharply in terms of single or cumulative months.

The International Energy Research Institute had previously predicted that by 2024, India would replace China as the world’s largest demander of crude oil.

Renewable energy is becoming the core of energy transformation OPEC once wrote in the “2040 Global Oil Outlook Report” that China’s energy demand is expected to be lower than previously expected because the Chinese government is taking active measures to accelerate renewable Energy transformation.

At present, China has launched a campaign to close several existing coal mines and restrict the construction of new coal mines. Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, the province requires that by the end of 2020, the number of coal mines in the province will be greatly reduced, the mine structure will be significantly optimized, and the capacity of large and medium-sized mines will account for more than 60%. In this regard, Heilongjiang Jixi, Hegang, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe four coal mines promised to close more than 100 coal mines by the end of this year.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)” was released, and it is promised that by 2030, China’s total energy consumption will be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal, and non-fossil energy accounts for The proportion of primary energy consumption is about 20%, and the proportion of natural gas is about 15%. The demand for new energy is mainly met by clean energy.

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