According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.19-1.26), with an average market price of 214160 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 222510 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 3.9%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In the futures market, the upward trend continues within the cycle, but as prices rise, the wait-and-see mentality of the spot market gradually arises, with a certain resistance to high prices. As downstream stocking demand gradually weakens. Recently, market trading has been relatively light. In terms of supply, the tight supply pattern at the mining end continues, and it has been further tightened recently. Recently, tin ore processing fees have been reduced by 1000 yuan/metal ton per month, and the latest customs data shows that the import volume of tin concentrate in December has significantly decreased by 41%, boosting market sentiment. In terms of demand, as the spot market continues to rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market has significantly weakened. As the holiday approaches, downstream stocking demand has further tightened. Currently, the overall attitude is cautious and wait-and-see. In the long run, the market generally believes that domestic integrated circuit production will continue to rebound in the future, and market expectations are improving compared to the previous period. Overall, there is still purchasing demand downstream in the short term, but high prices have constrained some of the demand. Without demand support, it is expected that the tin ingot market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term. In the long run, market expectations are still acceptable, and there may be some upward potential in the tin ingot market after the holiday.

Related data:

On January 28th, the base metal index was 1183 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.27% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1104 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.88% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (3.95%), nickel (2.95%), and zinc (2.61%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.03%), lead (-0.79%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-0.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was 0.49%.