1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 59841.67 yuan / ton, down 2.89% from 61625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 13.12% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past three months, copper prices have risen by 3 and fell by 9. Recently, copper prices have fallen continuously.

Macro: the dollar soared to a 20-year high, pessimism broke out, and the CNN fear greed index was only 21, and the market was in a state of extreme panic. The manufacturing PMI of Europe and the United States in June has been released, recording 53 and 52.1 respectively, both lower than that of May. New orders in the United States fell below the boom and bust line for the first time since May 2020, only 49.2. Waller and Brad, the two most hawkish decision makers of the Federal Reserve, supported an additional 75 basis points increase in interest rates this month to curb inflation, while downplaying concerns about the U.S. economy heading for recession.

Fundamentals: in terms of supply, the interference at the copper mine end in South America intensified in the middle and early June, but it has basically eased towards the end of the month. In the week of July 1, cspt held an online meeting and decided that the spot TC guide price of copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2022 was $80 / dry ton, unchanged from the second quarter. In terms of demand, in the off-season of consumption, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is lower than the normal level in previous years. As the price fell relatively violently before, the downstream enterprises were afraid of falling and refused to adopt seriously.

To sum up, the domestic supply center is expected to rise, and the smelting enthusiasm is still high; The recovery intensity of domestic consumption is weak, and downstream procurement has not improved due to the sharp decline in prices, although the current domestic inventory is still low. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a low level of about 60000 yuan / ton in the short term.