According to the monitoring of the business club, in May, the domestic adipic acid went out of the inertia decline in April, and then stopped falling and rebounded. On the one hand, the cost side is favorable, and pure benzene continues to rise, bringing profit pressure to downstream adipic acid enterprises. However, driven by factors such as relative excess supply and insufficient demand, adipic acid did not follow the upward pace of pure benzene in the middle and early days, and the market hit the bottom and rebounded in the late days. Throughout the month, adipic acid still fell by 0.50%. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of adipic acid in East China was 11800-12200 yuan / ton.
From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of manufacturers in this month was mainly flat compared with that in the previous month, about 70%. Although the operating rate did not rise significantly, the pressure on enterprise inventory was obvious in the first two months, and the manufacturer has been reducing prices and arranging inventory. In the middle and late ten days of the year, the market inventory pressure gradually eased. With the increase of the listing price of the manufacturer, the market also bottomed out and rebounded. In terms of commencement, Hongding and Jiangsu Haili plants were shut down within the month, and one of Shandong Haili lines was briefly maintained; Taihua Chemical Co., Ltd. operated at reduced load, and the utilization rate of the unit was reduced to less than 50%. Other devices are mainly normal. In the case of insufficient demand, the relatively abundant supply is the fundamental reason for the low price of adipic acid.
Market trend of pure benzene upstream adipic acid
According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene was the main player this month, with an increase of 6.37% this month. The price of plateau feedstock still supports the downstream adipic acid. In the later stage, as the cost continues to transfer, adipic acid may still have the power to move.
Market trend of cyclohexanone upstream adipic acid
The price of cyclohexanone also kept rising this month, with an increase of 4.2%. The high-level operation of raw material pure benzene gives support to the whole industrial chain. In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises is low, and the supply is slightly tight, adding positive factors. At the same time, the downstream continued to recover, the basic demand began to expand, and the cyclohexanone market was relatively strong in the whole may.
The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene increased significantly, boosting the downstream. This is also the direct reason why the price of adipic acid can reach the bottom and rise when the supply and demand is relatively weak.
Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66
Terminal demand: the demand for adipic acid remained weak this month. The epidemic situation and transportation problems restrained some procurement demand. The downstream start-up was relatively sluggish. Although the holiday was approaching, the downstream plants did not have the peak of early stocking as in previous years. The orders shall be mainly based on the rigid demand, and the actual orders shall be negotiated for multiple low-level transactions. In terms of export, the volume of goods shipped has not changed much, but the prices mostly run at low prices along with the domestic market prices. In general, the weak demand for adipic acid in April is the core reason for the weak price.
Downstream product PA66: according to the monitoring of business agency, PA66 continued to decline in May, narrowed compared with the previous month, with a range of -3.74%. In May, the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was still high on the whole. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, and the profit of PA66 enterprise is under pressure. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. The impact of domestic health events on East China in this month has not yet ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The turnover on the floor declined, superimposed on the end of the month, and the seller’s mentality was poor, so he let the single operation of profit take the lead. Overall, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not changed much, and demand is the most important factor restricting its market.
Upstream and downstream industrial chain
Trend of adipic acid industrial chain
The above figure shows that in May, the upstream of adipic acid industrial chain was stronger, and the upstream products pure benzene and cyclohexanone generally rose. While the cost side was still good for adipic acid, it also put pressure on adipic acid manufacturers, and their profits continued to decline compared with last month. In addition, the price of PA66 in the downstream is weakening, indicating that the downstream demand for adipic acid is still weakening. The high cost has brought a certain degree of pressure on the terminal demand.
In the near future, the business community believes that the cost side: the crude oil market continues to rise, the upstream cost brings pressure, the raw material pure benzene mostly follows the trend of crude oil, and the high oil price pure benzene brings support, but adipic acid will still face the pressure from high cost in the future. At present, the rising trend of adipic acid has not been fully opened, and the manufacturer may gradually raise the price in the later stage. In addition, the adipic acid manufacturer has a maintenance plan in the near future, so it is likely that the supply will decline in the future, Positive factors in the supply side may support its continued recovery. However, there is little possibility of a sharp rise or fall, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream demand in the later stage.